Upper trof lifting quickly NE today as Upper Ridge builds in….Quick warmup now into the weekend with low 80s expected in Mammoth Lakes…..Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model continues to back peddle on strength of La Nina for upcoming winter…..Peak of the Perseides Meteor Shower after midnight tonight…..
Thursday August 11, 2016
Posted at 7:24 am by Howard
Sunday AM Update:
It was a warm one in Mammoth Saturday with a high temperature of 85 degrees. This Summer there has been more mid 80s then I can remember….. One reason for this is that the AZ Monsoon has been pretty much absent this Summer. I have written about this several times in past discussion’s and so will not go into to it again. Anomalous weather patterns are usually caused by the domino effect of larger scale occurrence’s.
Although it will be very warm through the middle of this week with more low to mid 80s in Mammoth, there are important changes this week that may lead to fire weather concerns for the next weekend. The eastern pacific high will retrograde and build out at 140W by Thursday. This pattern change will send short wave energy tumbling south along the west coast. The latest GFS run and its ensembles develop an upper level low off the Central CA coast Thursday and drift it SE through the weekend. The pattern suggests strong upper divergence over the central then southern sierra. The upper low does develop moisture and PWAT with upper dynamics. This developing pattern will have to be watched for next weekend as far as lightning concerns in an extremely dry forest.
Warmer temperature’s are on the way for Eastern CA as another warm ridge builds over the west coast. High temperatures will climb to the lows 80s this weekend and remain there into next week. Once again this is a dry pattern as the monsoon remains shut down until further notice. Lows at night will be mostly in the 40s this weekend… Winds will remain light. At this time, the outlook remains dry for the Eastern Sierra with little to no chance of the Monsoon developing….What may happen is that a Col may form off shore allowing some upper level divergence to develop the following week…We may get some showers that way…
Scripps continues to back peddle on the strong La Nina predicted earlier this year for the Winter of 2016/17. This actually increases the chance for precipitation in the Southern CA area. Stay tuned!
Tonight is the night and mainly after 1:00AM for the Enhanced Perseids meteor shower display. Go to bed early then get up at 2:00AM….. Constellation Perseids will rise in the East…. Moon sets just after 1:00AM…… Friday night is past peak but it may still be good….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)