Seasonal temperatures will continue this week with some warming by weeks end…..First Fall like Trough to effect the High Country Labor Day Weekend
Wednesday August 24, 2016
Posted at 4:15 am by Howard
Extended outlook later this afternoon….
After some rain the past few days…drier air has pushed in from the Northwest as of late. No rain is expected in the high country through Thursday. After Thursday, the upcoming weekend shows a slight uptick in temps, as well as some increase in mid level moisture enough for the slight chance of thunderstorms. Daytime highs will range in the mid 70s climbing to the upper 70s late in the week. A weak mid latitude trof will increase winds Monday into Tuesday morning for Northern CA. Over the south central sierra, the usual Zephyr will occur with afternoon breezes of 15 to 25 MPH each day into the early evening hours.
End of August and Labor Day Weekend Outlook:
The 2nd half of next week looks a bit cooler and breezy as the first fall like trough settle’s into the Great Basin over the holiday weekend. The ECMWF probably has the right idea with Eastern CA on the back side of this weather system bringing cooler weather with highs in the 60s at resort levels and nights in the 30s. The Dweebs will have an update on the pattern change next week….
Thursday PM Update: The west coast Trof “is trending” cooler and deeper into the holiday weekend. This really bares watching!! Both ECMWF and GFS has a anomalous trof over the holiday bringing much cooler than normal temps. On todays 06z run of the GFS…it even sprouted a few snow flakes over the crest Sunday. Now this forecast period is still a good week away. For those planning back country travel over the holiday weekend you might want to think about packing some thermals and consider a shift from a summer bag to a 3 season bag to sleep in, especially if you are going above 9K.
I will have an important update early next week…..
Thoughts about the weather for fall of 2016:
Old Farmer Almanac came out with its Winter Outlook for CA. Colder than normal and dryer than normal. They claim that their forecasts are 80%
The Dweebs agree that the Fall/Winter has a below normal bias for temperatures with the Trof in the West. Arctic air will probably spill west into the Great Basin several times during the late Fall and Winter of 2016/2017. This will bring Mammoth some pretty cold weather at times.
ENSO: With a weak La Nina, there is not much bias in precipitation one way or another. As mentioned before, the MJO has its best effect upon the west coast during “weak” (-.05C) La Nina Winters with a higher probably of AR events. So it may be that most of our precipitation will fall during short period high intensity precip events this winter.
Folklore: Rumors of a wet winter because of what is happening in the Southern Hemisphere is just that……Rumors that have no scientific bases…..Coincidence is not science.
The Blob of warm water:
The good news so far this Summer, is that the Blob is set up a bit further west…Just west of 140W ATM. Again that would argue for a Western Trof and occasional cut off lows dropping down the coast in the fall. There should be some very nice large scale Trofs effecting the west coast this winter as well. Remember, low solar argues for a colder bias to winters in the west. However, if the Blob snuggles east up to BC coast and the warmth fills in along the west coast, that would spell trouble again. For the time being the coast is clear….no pun intended.
Will know a bit more later in the Fall about the upcoming winter as the QBO….SSTA pattern and final ENSO forecast is taken into consideration.