Thursday’s storm is slowing down and so is the cold air push into Mammoth……Rain may not change to snow untill after midnight in town Thursday night…..Elevations above 9K should be all snow Thursday Night into Friday with amounts increasing Thursday into Friday…Over 4 feet of snow is possible now over the upper elevation of Mammoth Mtn as Massive AR event unfolds for Thursday night into Friday Morning….
Tuesday December 13, 2016
Posted at 9:45 am by Howard
Friday Afternoon 3:00PM
Upper Trof Axis has pushed through with cold northerly flow now. Looking at a 3 dog night with lows 0 to -10.
Finally Tally… (EQ) 5.13 inches of water (Mammoth Mt) 2.86 inches of water at the Village at Mammoth
39 to 56 inches on Mammoth Mountain; Total Base Depth 54 to 132 inches.
6 inches lower elevations of Town. About a foot at the VILLAGE
12 to 18 inches near Canyon Lodge.
Cold the next few days with highs in the 20s…
Lows -10 to 0
Next storm about Friday..
Tuesday Night: 9:50PM
Possible High End Wind event for Mono County Beginning Wednesday night into Thursday Mid Day….Highway 395 Long Valley, north to Walker under the gun for wind gusts up to 100MPH late Wednesday night through Thursday mid day.
Heavy rain possible along the lee of the Sierra Thursday night below 8500 feet with the snow level crashing after mid night. 10 to 20 inches of snow possible over the lower elevation’s of town while upper elevations of town may get 2 feet plus, depending upon snow level. This would be near Canyon Lodge.
Remember, this storm is all about the snow level. About 5 inches of water is expected Thursday into Friday. If for some reason the snow level verifies 500 to 700 feet lower, the town will be buried…with possible R3 conditions.
The event is still about 48 hours away. Will update late Thursday morning.
The 12Z GFS guidance this morning continues the trend of slowing the storm down and most importantly slowing the cold air from invading the Town of Mammoth. All the while, the precipitation continues through the event. What this means is that although the storm is getting a bit wetter with more QPF, it may stay rain longer in the Town of Mammoth before turning to snow. In that we are a good 48 to 60 hours away from the precip event, the Dweebs are backing off on snowfall amounts in Town to between 10 and 20 inches, but increasing amounts for the upper mountain to 4 feet by Friday afternoon…..The snow level will be “about” 9000 feet Thursday afternoon lowering to 8000 by Thursday night then crashing to the Mono County Valley Floor after midnight Thursday…..
The weekend will be dry and cold. Highs in town in the low 20s and lows around zero to 5 above at night.
it appears that we will have some very nice weather the week prior to Christmas…then a series of inside sliders between about Christmas Eve and New Years. These are cold storms with generally light amounts of snowfall. (1 to 6 inches) Another point to make here is that there are signs that the pattern will retrograde slowly the last week of the year and so we may be looking at another major storm by the 1st week of the new year. I have said it before several times, and I will mention it again. The Atmospheric River events of the past 2 months will most likely repeat itself again later in January or early February. The negative phase of the WPO will likely rise its ugly head again but the next time, it may be on steroids…..
PS. There was a very famous winter in Mammoth Lakes associated with the -WPO….If you research the 500mb reanalysis charts, what you will find is an uncanny resemblance of the pattern of the Winter of 1969 to the one that we just went through and one that may reemerge January or February of 2017.