Archive for December, 2016

Rapid exit of Friday’s Storm has provided a beautiful Saturday Morning….unstable air aloft may still provide a little more snow today….Then fair and milder through the middle of the up coming week……Gulf of Alaskan Block may make return the first week of January….

Weather Letter Update Tuesday AM

 

Snowfall Tallies:

Village at mammoth  14 inches

Main Lodge                20 inches

Top of Mountain        32 inches

 

Cold Upper Trof is exiting California today but not before a few pockets of instability track through the sierra. These pockets, (Vort maxes)  will kick off some snow showers with another inch or two possible. Otherwise Cold Air advection will continue today, tonight and into Sunday AM.  The high temperature forecast for Mammoth Saturday is 25 degrees/low -2…..While highs on Mammoth Mt will be in the mid teens Saturday.

It was 4 degrees on top at 9:00AM. The winds have been on the decrease this morning with gusts to 25 MPH on top. Expect the winds later today to pick up as the upper jet from the north on the back side of this sharp Trof comes through.

Expect rapid height rises Monday into Wednesday with the freezing level to go from 2500 Sunday AM to 11,500 feet by Wednesday PM.  Expect high temps to rise into the 40s by mid-week. Lows at night under a temperatures inversion to be in the teens mid-week

 

Longer Range:

Just a brief statement or two as I will be chatting in more detail in my Tuesday AM weather letter about the possibilities to come,  weather-wise  for Early/Mid January…

Both The GFS, ECMWF and Canadian global models are showing the return of the blocking pattern we had earlier this month.  Blocking patterns suppress the westerlies to the south, which often times flood the far west with subtropical moisture; no pun intended.  AR and pineapple connections are most-always associated with Blocking Patterns which often are associated with Kona Lows that can feed moisture to the west coast. The big question will be, is this blocking in the -EPO or -WPO sector.  The difference is profound for California weather…

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)

The Friday/Saturday snow storm to favor Southern Mono County as Upper Jet Dives Toward Southern California…Winter Storm Warnings hoisted for Mono County at 10:00AM Friday through 12:00PM Saturday…..

Finally a Storm that will Favor Southern Mono County and the Southern Sierra. In that the Upper jet is diving a bit more south now with the front left exit region favoring the southern sierra and southern Central Sierra, The QPF’s bull’s-eye has been shifted south to near Mammoth Lakes now with between 2 to 3 feet of cold dry powder expected over the very upper elevations.  Snow to water ratios will range from 10:1 then 12:1 with the very back-end of the storm 15:1 is possible. However, the Dweebs point out that a good part of the storm will be at 12:1. So no Platinum Powder Alert. However, the snow will be light and powdery! It will be a very cold holiday weekend!  Highs Saturday near 20!…..Lows a little below zero Sunday AM.

The very latest guidance is indicating that the storm is speeding up a bit and so the higher amounts on Mammoth Mt may be in Jeopardy if it moves through faster.

This will be the icing on the cake for Mammoth Mountain, for the Christmas and Chanukah holiday’s and the best skiing conditions in years!

The week between Christmas and New Years looks dry now with the next storm being delayed until possibly the 3rd of January…

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)

Increasing Amplitude in the Eastern Pacific High north of Kauai and south of the Aleutians…..First in a series of storms to hit Eastern Sierra Friday night and Saturday…..with additional storms possible into New Year….

Wednesday AM:

Small Adjustment in the QPF this Am with adjustments in the timing as well.

Expect snow to begin falling between 7:00AM and 8:00AM with a heavier snowfall rates after 10:00AM Friday. A winter storm Watch goes into effect at 10:00AM Friday. Heavy snow is expected with rapidly falling temps Friday afternoon into Friday Night.

Expect about (1) foot+ of snow in the Town of Mammoth,  with upwards to two feet on Mammoth Mountain by Saturday afternoon.  The snow level will begin at 7500 Friday AM,  and will fall rapidly during the afternoon to the Mono County valley floor.

 

Christmas Day will be partly cloudy, dry and cold with highs in the upper 20s.

 

Full discussion Tomorrow AM in Weather Letter….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

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The Dweebs wait is over as you can not continue to disagree with recent model trends the past few days, especially when you are closing in to that magic 72 hour window from the event. Although the western hemispheric progressive pattern continues without any real high latitude blocking and both AO and NAO is positive, the eastern pacific ridge is situated in the perfect spot for a wave train of short waves, (Storms)  to dig into CA with each showing quite a significant upper jet on back side to get the “Dig Done”.

As an added comment, I have to say that this is a winter in the making that we in California have been waiting for a long time. It has the potential to put a big dent in our drought here in Central CA.  Personally, I have reason to believe that there is a correlation between the coming solar minimum and a wetter west. The Sun is in hibernation mode now with little Sunspot action and some scientists are of the belief that the next 5 years are going to be very interesting weather wise…..Wetter in California!

Upcoming storm series:  ( These are all cold storms)

  1. The Friday night system to begin during Friday evening and be over with before Christmas Day. Forecast for Mammoth; All Snow top to bottom.   12 to 18 inches in town and 18 to 24 on the Mountain. Probabilities 80%
  2. The will be a break Christmas Day with next storm moving in Christmas Day Night. Moderate intensity with amounts about 6 to 12 in town and between 12 to 18+ on the mountain.
  3. Third Storm near New Years Eve.

Longer Range:

 

MJO Rimm showing amplification in Phase spaces 8/1 in both JMAN and GFS, but not In ECMWF. So why is the European models not picking up on the tropical convection near the Dateline next week?  The hopefully the CPC will highlight this in their discussion today.

As a comment, the fact that the JMAN (Japanese model and GFS are consistent with the return of MJO or at least a Kelvin Wave in this region enhancing tropical convection is worth considering from the stand point of a return to a blocking pattern with either the negative phase of the EPO or WPO. This would increase confidence for a return to a similar pattern in December that brought a lot of rain to Northern CA. However in January, that may end up being a bit stronger and possibly colder.  The pattern is highlighted by a split flow out over the central pacific, another active Kona Low; a strong positive height anomaly near the Bering Sea or Aleutian’s.

Tuesday PM Update:  The CPC has indicated that the incursion into Phase space 8/1 is due to a Kelvin Wave and is not MJO. So no major blocking expected to MJO.

 

More later in my Letter Wednesday Night for Thursday AM.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)