Last gasp of wet pattern dumps 2 feet on the Town of Mammoth….A few more inches expected this evening than a nice 5 day break….Active pattern continues out over the pacific with a new storm or two looming mid week……MJO Raising its ugly head for the potential for another Alaska blocking pattern B-4 months end….
Thursday January 12, 2017
Posted at 7:21 pm by Howard
Here is the link for a updated lift status on Mammoth Mountain:
Friday the 13th, 4:10PM;.
There is 22.5 feet on top! According to Cliff Mann, The top is only 20 inches away from a January record. I told Cliff that we will break that record next Wednesday and Thursday with an expected 3 to 4 feet of freshies by Friday the 20th.
PS. You can now leave your rock skis at home……………….:-)
We’re all weary from the biggest early January on-slot of storms in decades. The models did a fabulous job, at distance, in warning the weatherman that AR’s were coming, and they did. Now that they have passed, the Dweebs can safely say that Mammoth Pass exceeded 20 inches of water for that particular storm cycle. Mammoth Mountain has over a 20 foot base on the top of the mountain….More snow than any other ski resort in the country at the moment.
The new pattern developing this weekend is the positive phase of the Eastern Pacific Oscillation. (EPO) highlighted by a very cold low pressure system over Alaska and higher pressure along the west coast. I do not feel as comfortable in longer range forecasting now because of this pattern. It tends to be more unstable and possibly fickle and thus not nearly as accurate. For the record, the forecast is for another AR event for the Central Sierra a week out. Yes the models are consistent, but without the blocking over AK anymore, the westerlies just do not seem to be as amplified as they were the past five to seven days. Although the North Pacific charts at the 500MB level, Forecast models; GFS and ECMWF are both consistent in bringing in another Atmospheric River to the west coast via the Philippines later Wednesday into Thursday AM. Confidence in the pattern at this distance in time is not as high as it will be within 72 hours out. FYI, The pattern does bring in a colder storm in the back of the AR.
Expect some upslope snow showers Friday…then a nice break in the weather that develops with partly cloudy days and nights Saturday, Sunday and Monday. High temps in town will be in the 30s with lows in the single digits and teens. For you folks getting up here this weekend, you will find the mountain and the TOML, looking a lot different from the last time you were here because of all the snow!
All global models are forecasting a strong MJO to develop later next week in phase 1 of the RIMM. The MJO is the Madden Julian Oscillation and is highlighted by tropical forcing. It is like a cattle prod to the Atmosphere. In the Winter when the MJO is strong and in the right phases, it can modulate the westerlies and extend the east Asian jet to the west cost. Before it does, often times, the classic signature of the Gulf of AK block develops. Look for the block to redevelop again during the last week of January. Heaven help us if it does!….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)