Archive for year 2017

Fair Warm Weekend ahead then NW Slider Sunday night bringing breeze…..Cooling and some cloudiness….It will be a dry 5 day period ahead…..

High pressure will build along the coast the next few days bringing a good warm up over our region. Temperatures are likely to reach near the 70 degree mark at resort levels Saturday, however night time lows will still dip into the 20s and 30s. Light winds are expected through Saturday. The pattern will change a bit Sunday into Monday as a NW slider digs down into the Northern Great Basin. The GFS model is deeper and brings more cooling than the Euro. Either way there is no precipitation expected for the east Central Sierra, but there will be an uptick in breeze Sunday with some high clouds possible into Monday. Otherwise…It is October weather at its finest for the Eastern Sierra. As a note…Fall color is coming on strong now and for those that are interested in taking advantage of the change….plan your trips to the high country now!

Winter Outlook:

I will have an update on what the Dweebs are looking for the Winter of 2017/2018 later next week!

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……….

Another NW Digging Trough will bring wind and cooling….Possibly flurries or light snow showers for Tuesday…..Overnight lows headed for the lows 20s once again…

Monday afternoon:

Last 12z and 18z Monday modeling continues the trend of more energy swinging off shore then over the sierra, (over water trajectory) to the point that its hard to ignore the possibility of snow showers Tuesday and into the evening. Not a big deal but with most forecasters not putting anything other then a slight chance. FYI, It looks more likely to the Dweeb this afternoon then not for Tuesday/evening. There is even the possibility of an inch of snowfall here over Mammoth Mt!

Outlook:
Dry and Mild Next Week!

Longer range shows a possible storm about Mid Month or just after!

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Although seasonal temperatures were expected this weekend, another NW slider was taking shape over the pacific northwest. Winds this morning at 10:00AM were gusting to 50 MPH over the top of Mammoth Mt with light breezes in the Town of Mammoth Lakes. Seasonal highs; Low to mid 60s with lows in the upper 30s and 40s are expected this weekend.

Early this new week a reinforcing shot of cold air will dig South over the far west, carving a stronger Trof over the Great Basin. Although this is similar to last weeks system, there is not much over water trajectory of the upper jet of any precipitation this time. However, the very latest Saturday 12z model runs seem to be digging this system ever slightly westward, enough for some possible snow showers Tuesday over the Central Sierra. With 700MB temperatures plunging again, nighttime lows are headed for the upper teens and twenties and daytime highs in the upper 40s Tuesday. Once the chilly air gets in here Monday and Tuesday, temperatures well remain below normal for a good part of next week before recovering that following weekend.

Longer Range:

The ECMWF week two and CFS models seem to be trending toward a stronger system moving in from the west, the middle of October that may bring significant snowfall to the high country…

Stay Tuned………..;-)

Beautiful week shaping up with light north breezes for the first half and temperatures becoming warmer than normal….Week 2 looks not as warm with breezy weather at times and only a slight chance of any showers…

Thursday AM:
Not much change in the weekend outlook with breezy weather developing for Friday night into Saturday over the upper elevations. Little temperature change this weekend with highs in the mid 60s. Forecast models and ensembles of both EC and GFS are leaning toward cooler weather the first half of next week with periods of windy weather toward Tuesday and Wednesday. WX maps show cool upper Trof setting up over the Great Basin and a return to cooler than normal temperatures…

At the moment the pattern change is dry….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)

Weather over the Eastern CA this week will be pretty benign with Mammoth between two different air masses. One is the storm that came through last week that has become a static feature over the Great Basin weather wise. The low pressure Trof over the Great Basin and the upper ridge off shore are providing a north-south gradient over Eastern CA. There appears to be a short wave that will drop into the Great Basin weakness and provide a bit more gradient tonight and Tuesday some north winds may pick up a bit over the Owens Valley. By Tuesday, the Trof splits with one portion ejecting NE toward the upper mid west and the remains of the old Trof hanging back to gradually weaken. The Upper Ridge off shore does come in over the weekend with the warmest temperatures expected. We may see highs in Mammoth approaching 70 by Saturday. The cold temps at night will moderate as well with lows in the 20s rising to the mid to upper 30s this week. It is a great time to be in the back country, however, we did pick up as much as 10 inches of snow above 10,000 feet last week.

There is little certainty this morning in any storminess next week. I would say that the likelihood of any significant precip at this time is pretty low. There is a slight chance of some showers through during the week 2 period. It looks like there will be a period of cooler weather along with breezy conditions as there is a belt of westerlies expected to move into the Pacific NW next week.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………:-)