Archive for May, 2018

Althrough Mono County Rainfall has been confined to areas north of Mammoth the past two days…..The pattern remains favorable for some showers Friday, Saturday and Sunday afternoon and especially Monday,,,,,

The closed low that brought heavy rainfall to the Reno area Tuesday was located over Eastern NV Thursday night and moved ENE out of the state by morning. The pattern that originated was classic in that Reno and areas mainly north of Mono County were in the favorable NE quad of the upper low that moved in over the Bay Area Wednesday morning. Upper divergence combined with strong daytime heating brought rainfall to many areas in Tahoe, Minden, Carson City and Reno. Amounts were between 1/2 to an inch of rain in many areas.  Thursdays rain showers did not have the forcing of yesterday as mainly residual moisture and daytime heating provided the lift.

Friday AM Update: Today Friday is looking a bit different as the Rapid Refresh Model now shows showers developing long the Sierra Crest south to the Southern Sierra. The focusing will be over the crest then drifting east of the crest late in the day. So there is a better possibility of showers or a thunderstorm in the Mammoth Area today, from mainly diurnally driven convection. Tomorrow Saturday, dynamic lift begins to show up again. On Saturday, a negative tilt open wave moves into Mono county. So far the models are not overly impressed with the pattern with some showers in the afternoon. I will update Saturday AM. The main feature will be what drops in late Sunday as the negative tilt trof over CA reloads and a closed low drops down the coast late Sunday night into Monday. Monday afternoon looks to be the most active rainfall wise for Southern Mono County, otherwise there is a chance of showers and thunder each afternoon but not to a major degree.

 

High temps will be in the upper 50s and low 60s while the lows will range in the very upper 20s and 30s.

 

The Memorial Holiday weekend still looks nice and warm but possibly breezy at times.

 

Dr HJoward and the Dweebs……………..:-)

Small Scale Blocking Pattern will Likely Lock in weak Long Wave Trof over the Great Basin….Chilly unsettled weather the result for the high country this week and possibly next…

A blocking pattern is forecasted by both the GFS and ECMWF. 5 Day 500mb means show upper Trof over the Great Basin while the daily’s keep Vort centers moving counter clock wise around upper low with NE flow into the Sierra. Showers and possible thunderstorms will most likely be diurnally driven with some nocturnal action at times.

 

Expect the chance of showers each day this week, along with cooler than normal temps. The weekend outlook still keeps the chance of showers, however temperatures return to near normal for this time of the year. (Low 60s) The snow level will remain high, between 9000 and 10,000 feet for the most part. There may be periods of grapple with the daytime convection.

Temperatures in the high country are likely to be below normal over the next 5 days

Daytime highs will be in the low to mid 50s while the lows in the 30s…

The Freezing Level is expected to rise over the weekend and so highs will approach 60 by Saturday.

 

Longer Range:

Long Range forecasting is dicing at best this time of the year…..Even two weeks out.  However, for those that want me to take a shot at it, the Memorial Day holiday weekend looks fair, with warmer than normal temperatures.

 

The Dweeber…………………….:-)

It will be warmer and drier Friday with lots of high clouds through the weekend….Sunday looks to be the Breeziest Day…Warmer than normal temps are likley well into next week.

Latest Guidance this morning continues the trend of drying and warming through Friday. Highs will move well into the 60s over the next two days, with little change in temperatures expected over the weekend. The exception is that Sunday maybe a little cooler. There is a passing short wave to our north on Sunday. The new 5/3/18 12Z GFS shows a bit stronger jet this morning for that time frame. No Doubt that there will be plenty of high cloudiness Saturday into Sunday. The upper Jet late Sunday morning was recently revised upward to 85 knots at 250MB. The Front Rt exit region favors Mammoth. This will definitely kick up some wind on Sunday.  So the emphases is on stronger breezes for late Sunday morning and especially the afternoon into the early evening based upon this mornings guidance. Like last Saturday, if your planning on Fishing the Lake Sunday, get an early start as winds should be very light at daybreak then coming up later in the morning. The strongest winds are expected out of the west, and are likely to become 15 to 30 MPH,  during the afternoon and into the early evening hours..   Mondays breezes will be light again.  Another warm up is expected Monday into Wednesday with low 70s expected at resort levels Tuesday and Wednesday.

Longer Range: (Updated 5/4/18)

Another wave of low pressure will move across to the north of us Wednesday afternoon, with more breeze expected then.  Forecast Models have backed off on the Mothers Day weather system as of this time.  In that this is a very fickle time of the year with forecast models, anything is possible.

For the time being it now looks fair and warm…

Next update, the 14th of May…..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)