Last gasp of wet pattern dumps 2 feet on the Town of Mammoth….A few more inches expected this evening than a nice 5 day break….Active pattern continues out over the pacific with a new storm or two looming mid week……MJO Raising its ugly head for the potential for another Alaska blocking pattern B-4 months end….

Saturday AM;

Here is the link for a updated lift status on Mammoth Mountain:

http://www.mammothmountain.com/winter/mountain-information/mountain-information/lift-trail-status

 

Friday the 13th, 4:10PM;.

There is 22.5 feet on top!   According to Cliff Mann, The top is only 20 inches away from a January record. I told Cliff that we will break that record next Wednesday and Thursday with an expected 3 to 4 feet of freshies by Friday the 20th.

 

PS. You can now leave your rock skis at home……………….:-)

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We’re all weary from the biggest early January on-slot of storms in decades. The models did a fabulous job, at distance, in warning the weatherman that AR’s were coming, and they did.  Now that they have passed, the Dweebs can safely say that Mammoth Pass exceeded 20 inches of water for that particular storm cycle.  Mammoth Mountain has over a 20 foot base on the top of the mountain….More snow than any other ski resort in the country at the moment.

The new pattern developing this weekend is the positive phase of the Eastern Pacific Oscillation. (EPO)  highlighted by a very cold low pressure system over Alaska and higher pressure along the west coast. I do not feel as comfortable in longer range forecasting now because of this pattern. It tends to be more unstable and possibly fickle and thus not nearly as accurate. For the record, the forecast is for another AR event for the Central Sierra a week out. Yes the models are consistent, but without the blocking over AK anymore, the westerlies just do not seem to be as amplified as they were the past five to seven days.  Although the North Pacific charts at the 500MB level, Forecast models;  GFS and ECMWF are both consistent in bringing in another Atmospheric River to the west coast via the Philippines later Wednesday into Thursday AM. Confidence in the pattern at this distance in time is not as high as it will be within 72 hours out. FYI, The pattern does bring in a colder storm in the back of the AR.

 

Forecast:

Expect some upslope snow showers Friday…then a nice break in the weather that develops with partly cloudy days and nights Saturday, Sunday and Monday. High temps in town will be in the 30s with lows in the single digits and teens. For you folks getting up here this weekend, you will find the mountain and the TOML, looking a lot different from the last time you were here because of all the snow!

Longer Range:

All global models are forecasting a strong MJO to develop later next week in phase 1 of the RIMM.   The MJO is the Madden Julian Oscillation and is highlighted by tropical forcing. It is like a cattle prod to the Atmosphere.  In the Winter when the MJO is strong and in the right phases, it can modulate the westerlies and extend the east Asian jet to the west cost. Before it does, often times, the classic signature of the Gulf of AK block develops.  Look for the block to redevelop again during the last week of January. Heaven help us if it does!….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)

Precipitation tallies continue to add up….Very Wet Atmopheric River now an event of the past….However….Moderate AR still in the picture through Wednesday AM…..Lots more snow coming!!

As of 8:45 am Monday, Mammoth Pass has picked up 7.96 inches of water since AR # 2 started Saturday. Add that to AR #1 of 8.44 and you get about 16.5 inches of water. That a lot and there is possibly another 6 more inches to come by Thursday Night!.  Fridays storm is not in the future anymore, so the extreme amounts of 25 to 30 inch’s are unlikely now.  However, 20 to 25 inches is still in the picture by Thursday night of this week. Considering that about 43 inches of water is average,  we are well over 1/2 of our winters worth precipitation when you add October, November and December! We are possibly closing in on a full Winter’s worth quickly!!

WX Discussion:

Latest Satellite water vapor motion shows an intense upper low west of Washington and Oregon coast.  This upper wave according to the models will be replaced by the larger scale cyclone itself, as it moves eastward. The timing of this feature is to move it through Mammoth Lakes Tuesday night with an intense vertical motion field. Thus the main IOP, (Intensive operational period) will be Tuesday night into Early Wednesday morning where snowfall rates may be in the 2 to 4 inch per hour range for a time….  The Town of Mammoth at the 8000 foot level is likely to experience 3 feet to as high as 5 feet of snowfall between Monday AM and Thursday afternoon. Again the heaviest snowfall rates are likely Tuesday night…..

Outlook: We are still expecting a partly cloudy but fair weekend with high in the 20s. Lows in the single digits. Skiing will be on cold packed powder with deep powder as well.  Mammoth Mountain is likely to have received totals over the upper mountain in excess of 18 feet….

 

Next big storm has moved into the high country with moderate snowfall…..Cold Air trapped in the lower elevations will ensure snowfall well into the afternoon….Rain still forecasted for later tonight through Sunday Night with rain changing back to snow Monday Morning in Mammoth Lakes….

Saturday at 1:30 PM

Here are some interesting temps to show warm frontal snowfall. It will give you a profile of temperatures;

Temps:

Summit of Mammoth Mt  25f
Main Lodge                       30
Village at Mammoth          26
Crestview station               25
Mammoth AP                    25  Moderate Snow
Bishop AP                          31  Light Snow

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The Temperature at Mammoth Lakes this morning has been about 20 degrees and so precipitation is warm front like induced, as warm moist air is being lifted by both the sierra and cold air at the surface. Snowfall will continue and be moderate until the winds pick up later today and mixes it out… Snow may accumulate over a foot in town before it changes to rain.

I just has a look at the Pine flat Dam FMCW S-Band Snow Level Radar. It is currently indicating that the snow level due west of us in the sierra foothills is 9300 feet. So we are trapped in the cold air in the Great Basin side of the Sierra and it is isothermal down to at least the Crestview Station.

When will the snow change to rain? Sometime this afternoon. Possibly as late at 4:00PM. However, there is no certainty in a forecast like that.  Once the winds pick up the snow level will jump very quickly!

After the rain event Sunday and Sunday night, the snow level will come back into town sometime early to mid Monday Morning…..

The Town of Mammoth will receive several feet of snow next week…..

Outlook….

I will have a detailed outlook in my weather letter put together tonight for Monday AM….

Just a hint though shows the storm track lifting north Friday into the weekend….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..:-)