Mild Today and Friday then Colder and Windy Saturday with Snow Sunday…..AR event not in the cards for Central California anytime soon….
Thursday March 2, 2017
Posted at 10:20 am by Howard
I will have a special inter seasonal and season outlook emailed today for my subscribers….
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This is more of a discussion for the Dweebs today. I thought that I would catch up a bit with some of the techie stuff, as there are those that enjoy it.
This is a brief discussion concerning any “AR” possibilities for the central west coast next week. In looking at the western hemispheric north pacific 500MB maps; 5 day means of both EURO, GFSX and Canadian. Although there are some differences, the screaming message here is that the upper block is not nearly as amplified as it has been in January and February. Additionally, it is too far west (-WPO) for a significant AR signal for Central California. Too much energy is allowed to go over the block as well as the mean height anomaly is very near the Dateline. Over time, there is retrogression westward during week 2. In the past, this block had a much stronger positive height anomaly over Alaska and the Bering Sea. Additionally, it was found northward to 60 to 65 north. The ECMWF has it retrograding further west, week 2. This is a case for even stronger ridging along the west coast.
Now, I have said many times that the month of March can be much more challenging with the forecast models. Even so, the struggle here comes from the GOA negative height anomaly to the east, would really have to deepen in the mean, to suppress an ever strengthening eastern pacific ridge that wants to over power the jet stream to the north. Best scenario for the AR would be for it to power up into the pacific NW or BC, CAN week 2.
Meteorological Spring arrives today….The Weather will be Beautiful with light breezes through Friday….Next Storm Sunday……..
Wednesday March 1, 2017
Posted at 8:19 am by Howard
You just can not beat a day like today. Sunny Skies, light breezes and temps in the low 40s. Ridging will be the word through Friday before the upper jet begins to sag south again. This will occur over California Saturday with a storm Sunday.
Highs will climb into the 50s Thursday and Friday with lows in the teens and twenties.
I will have a detailed look at this weekends weather including the wind forecast, and the approach of the polar jet on Saturday, as well as its passage Sunday. Next weeks weather will be discussed in my weather letter tomorrow morning as well.
Central and Northern Sierra Wet Pattern Winds down as March 1st Snow Surveys begin….They will confirm historic amounts for March 1st…..
Friday February 24, 2017
Posted at 8:35 am by Howard
The last gasp of California’s wet Patten will end the weekend with a whimper, as two small short waves will bring light amounts of snowfall to the high country. Only some 3 to 5 inches are expected for the Town of Mammoth. However, snow to water ratio’s will be high. The snow on Mammoth Mt will be Platinum Powder quality. However, no alert as amounts will not meet criteria. IE a foot or better….
Next update in my weather letter Monday AM