Record breaking October heat wave to slowly break after mid-week with important changes ahead for the first week of November….

 

OCT 30th….

Update later today on the weekend storm and beyond……:-)

 

October 26th:
Comments:

Very strong Blocking signature still evident in both -EPO and -WPO teleconnection, Especially the -EPO. This is profound!
Main Message is still for the possibility of a storm cycle beginning during at some point the first week of November…..
Global models struggling but ensembles beginning to show a better picture….Best Odds of a significant storm as indicated in my discussion on the 24th below, the weekend after Halloween.

October 24th Update:

Note: Many of Last years weather letter subscriber’s have contacted me about subscribing to the weather letter again this year. Although I really appreciated the compensation that it gave my partner Ted and I during the greatest winter for Precipitation in over 100 years, I have decided to revert to the Dr. Howard and the Dweebs report for free once again! I found that the timing of the reports were too confining. When weather changes occur, I want my followers to know immediately, not have to wait until the next report which could be days away! I also do not want to update daily if I choose not to. If in the future, this is something that can be modified, the weather letter will resume, “Web Based”. Until then, it is free for all to enjoy, as much as I enjoy writing it! 🙂

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Medium and longer range forecasts and outlooks are working out well this morning as the MJO’s upper divergent and upper convergent envelope continues progressive and “strong”!! The Key with the MJO in the Western Pacific as it relates to west coast weather is whether the typhoons spawned, constructively phase or destructively phase with the westerlies. (“PS” Thanks Tom C for the excellent lessons on this subject over the many years) 🙂

We are now experiencing the results of the destructive phasing and corresponding enhanced upper jet several days ago contributing to California’s record breaking late October heat wave. Expect 100s in LA today and highs near 90 in Bishop CA. 90 degrees is the record high for Bishop for this date set back in 1959. Tomorrow, should 90 occur, would tie a 90 degree high so late in the year as there has never been a 90 high in Bishop, Ca beginning the 26th of October.

Looking forward:

The +PNA pattern set up is locked in this week. So you all better enjoy it! Take that trek up to Shadow Lake, Lake Ediza or even Iceberg Lake in one day if your up to it!
The MJO is on the MOVE. It is strong and forecasted to cross phase spaces 8/1 in the RIMM. The EC is pretty weak with it in that area and the GFS is much stronger. The Dweebs believe a blend of the two is most likely the scenario. What is fun to watch is that fact that the models rarely pick up on the expected changes in the pattern until later in the game. The GFS as of this morning is starting to pick up on the retrogression the Dweebs were chatting about back on the 19th of October. (See discussion below). Retrogression of the long wave features is clearly in the picture for the Eastern Pacific next week…..In fact a significant Rain/snow producing storm is possible by about the weekend after Halloween. On another note, the pattern change is associated with the negative phase of both the EPO and WPO, and so an “AR” event is certainly possible as well. Soon other Weather Weenies will begin to tout about the change in their personal discussion’s! 😉

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)

Fast Moving upper Trof will scoot through during the mornings hours Friday….Big warm up in store for California Sunday through Wednesday with record or near record highs possible…..MJO expected to remain strong into next week…..Retrogression of long wave expected week two…..

Lots going on hemispherically weather wise, even though we are expecting only upper elevation snow showers Friday morning. The trof will be coming in to antecedent conditions that are fairly warm and so expect a lot of Wind later tonight and into Friday morning. The Dweebs expect between 10 and 15 degree of cooling by Friday. Nighttime lows Saturday AM will be below freezing at resort levels. Winds will Diminish Friday night into Saturday AM. It looks like a beautiful weekend with season temperatures Saturday then a big warm up beginning Sunday into next week. Mammoth Lakes may reach into the high 70s with upper 80s or even a 90 possibly for Bishop Tuesday or Wednesday. Early next week are the last 90s historically climatically.

The Madden Julian Oscillation “MJO” is indirectly responsible for the Ridge developing over the far west, as a super typhoon re-curves to the north, destructively phasing with the westerlies. This results, in quite the amplified ridge over the far west with the potential for a near record-breaking October heat wave in parts of California.

I think that the main point here is that the MJO is “PROGRESSIVE! It is forecasted to migrate eastward over the next one to two weeks. If this occurs as forecasted and it migrates eastward, discontinuous retrogression in the long wave pattern will occur beginning about mid-week next week. The ECMWF has the long wave ridge located well west of the west coast by Wednesday the 25th near 140 west. The California heat wave will be breaking about then. By All Hallows Eve, the Long wave ridge is progged by the EC to retrogrades just west of the Hawaiian Islands with further retrogression expected as strong upper height anomaly builds over the Bering Sea over the following days. Strong upper height falls respond downstream over the Eastern Gulf of AK, and off the BC coast. If this verifies, this pattern change sets the stage for the beginning of a Mammoth winter, sometime during the first week of November.

Stay Tuned……..:-)

Weather Pattern for Thursday Friday no longer impressive as Northern and Southern Streams failing to couple……Thus AR event becoming less likley for Thursday night and Friday……Strong PNA pattern setting up the following week…

10/18/2017

California Rivers Forecast Center is showing between .05 to .10 of an inch of qpf between Huntington Lakes and Yosemite. Pretty Pathetic….So possibly an inch or two in the Bowls above 10K and some snow shower’s in town by Mid Day Friday. Thereafter….Full On PNA teleconnection Pattern setting up over the Eastern Pacific according to Day + 8 Means with Anchoring Central Pacific long wave trof at 150W and the same negative height anomaly from Hudson Bay south over the Eastern US near 90 West. The Far west has a 500MB, 150 decameter positive height anomaly centered over the SE OR/NV border. Looks like great beach weather with off shore flow and once again fire concerns for the Southern CA Mountains. I would not be surprised to hear about some 100/105 degree temps in the Valleys and Coastal Plain with hot October off shore flow, Monday and Tuesday next week.
Time to hit the beach! Its going to get HOT!

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)

10/17/17 Tuesday AM:

Western pacific MJO currently very strong in phase 5. This tropical base state is spawning strong typhoons as upper divergent envelope now well established over the Western Pacific. So far, these Typhoons are destructively phasing with westerlies. This situation favors even stronger height rises over the far west the end of this week into next. In that it is possible that one of these typhoons could constructively phase during the week two period, the longer range guidance should not be relied upon to any great degree.

In the meantime, a fast moving upper Trof will bring wind, cooling and some showers to the Eastern Sierra, Thursday and Friday. No significant precipitation is expected over Southern Mono County, however some rain/snow showers are possible Friday AM with the snow level well above the Town of Mammoth Lakes.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

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The Global models have been back peddling on the AR now for about 36 hours as they suggest that the coupling of the Subtropical low now to the west of California, will not only occur but that the system will retrograde and track SW. The colder system that is forecasted to dig in from the NW is not as deep either as its energy is forecasted to move through California early to mid morning Friday. As you can see from my October 11th post, the discussion indicated that with the MJO increasing in the phase 5 RIMM, an upper divergence envelope would develop over the tropical western pacific and spawn typhoons and tropical storms that would either constructively or destructively phase with the westerlies. The change in the pattern now being forecasted by the global models suggest that some destructive phasing may be occurring over the western pacific. I warned about this in my October 11th post that the guidance would become unreliable as in the comment, “will we bite on the guidance”.

As of this Monday morning, it still looks like we will get a Trof and frontal passage Friday morning and it still looks like there will be some moisture enhancement from the subtropical low, but to a much lesser degree. Amounts this morning suggest .25 to .50 inches of QPF with a fairly high snow level. After the weather system pushes though, we’ll really ridge up for some gorgeous fall weather into the following week….that is if we believe the guidance! 😉