Summer shifts into high gear this week with highs in the low to mid 80s in Mammoth then mid to upper 70s 2nd half…..Last freeze of the cold season was last weekend….Feel free to plant…….
Sunday June 19, 2016
Posted at 9:26 pm by Howard
Tuesday 5:45PM Update:
The first day of Summer was quite the warm one with an even 80 here at the village at Mammoth and 105 in Bishop. Today Tuesday was a Redux with 80 again and again 105 in Bishop. An afternoon Mammoth zephyr picked up with gusts to 20 MPH……This took the edge off the warmth. We are now expecting at least some cooling through Thursday with highs down into the upper 70s the next few days here at the village. However, it may remain 80 and above over the lower elevations of town. The Mono Zephyr will pick up strength the next few days with Thursday being the most breezy. Wind’s in the 30mph to possibly approaching 40MPH is possible during the latter part of the afternoon Thursday. The NWS has hoisted Lake wind advisories for Mono County area lakes due to choppy conditions out on area lakes like. This is especially true for Crowley Lake. Get your fishing done early and be sure to be off area lakes before the afternoon as wind waves may be in the 1 to 3 foot range.
The weekend will warm again and the upper continental high rebuilding in back of the passing trof through the Pacific NW. Today’s 18Z 500MB GFS has heights north of 594dm, again by Monday and Tuesday..
Of course everyone is beginning to think how hot it is going to be during the weekend of July 4th. Lets say it will be warming up! Long range charts are hinting at possibly 90 degrees in Mammoth by the 6th or 7th. Of course this is a long way off, but interesting to watch. The heights are certainly high enough for the post July fourth heat that week. The only thing that would suppress that heat is if the monsoon kicked in early…… That is a good possibility as it will have been quite hot for quite a while over the desert southwest and SE flow is being hinted at….
This is what I will be focusing on in the coming weeks….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)
As the remains of the upper trof dissipate over the eastern pacific and the summer time continental high sets up, our early summer season weather shifts into high gear now with very warm days and cool nights……The configuration of the upper high does not lend itself to the migration of upper level impulse’s around the upper high from the south or SE as the flow is responding more from the WSW. This is due to a more stretched out version of the continental high west-east. This greatly diminishes the chance of thunderstorms this week until the weekend. This also means that we should have afternoon and early evening zephyrs through Monday with Tuesdays Zephyr weaker…..The afternoon zephyr may strengthen again later this week….
The Zephyr is the west wind that comes up in Mammoth in the afternoon into the evening hours….
Highs in Mammoth the next few days will be in the low to mid 80s then upper 70s into next weekend.
The Summer Solstice occurs at 3:34pm Monday PDT The full strawberry moon is the same day. Once in a 70 year event!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)
There will be a break between systems today with another full latitude Trof impacting the Eastern Sierra beginning Tuesday through much of this week…..So far it just looks windy…Heat to Return to the high county by weeks end with a scorcher expected for much of CA early next week…..
Monday June 13, 2016
Posted at 7:27 am by Howard
The current strong trof impacting the west coast bringing snows to the Cascades, showers to Northern CA this Wednesday and Thursday, and strong gusty winds here in Mono County, will be the last of the winter of 2016. Both ECMWF and GFS has a very strong continental high with heights at 500MB over 600DM building over Iowa then becoming flattened west-east across the southern tier states early next week. The core of the high retrogrades to the four corners states by Wednesday. Heights rise to 597DM at 500mb over California Monday AM, putting high temperature records in Jeopardy once again this month. So far….The initial upper flow is mostly southwesterly and so the upper flow is not conducive for any significant thunderstorm outbreak of the Summertime variety. However, deformation zone type high based thunderstorms my come into play as early as Wednesday next week as both southerly flow at 500MB and the Mono Zephyr increases. A cool down is expected Thursday and Friday with a vigorous zephyr associated with a small scale trof. With that said, the cool down will only be minor as highs are still expected in the 70s toward the end of next week.
Its been a busy week for me folks….Busy with real estate and a daughter becoming a double Bruin last Friday at UCLA. So I apologize for not updating sooner last week when the Gulf of AK trof split in the models with the bottom portion bringing difluence then upper divergence to the high country Saturday night and Sunday. Mammoth Weather picked up 1.14 inches of rainfall with some snow, at and above 10K.
Today there will be a few late afternoon instability showers due to the residual moisture from Sundays rains.
Another strong for June upper trof will be digging SE out of the GOA today. This one will not split, and remain consolidated. This means that we will get all the wind, but not likely to get much, if any precipitation, as the upper jet for the time being is forecasted to remain well to our north. Should that change, I will let you know.
Another large scale development is the continental high, making its debut as it develops this Thursday over Texas. Eventually, this developing anticyclone will settle in over the four corners area and will likely become a major player in the upper flow pattern, not only across the southern tier states, but act upon the current strong developing Trof in the pacific northwest by eventually weakening it and flattening out the flow as it expands west northward over the southern half of California and the Western Great Basin. Potentially this is a hot dry pattern for parts of California, including Southern CA, Eastern CA and Nevada by the end of this week.
So what the Dweebs see is a lot of wind beginning Tuesday, then on and off wind through Friday. The right rear entry region of the upper jet does brush Mammoth Wednesday Am and again Friday so there will be some lift for precip. However the air mass looks pretty dry. By Friday the last strong remains of the upper trof lifts out and away for Mammoth so the winds will diminish Saturday into Sunday as the four corners high brings the return of summer like weather to our region into the following week.
Highs in Mammoth Monday through Friday in the low to mid 60s with lows in the 30s
Temperatures will climb into the 70s Saturday with low 80s by Sunday.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)
Above normal temperatures to continue through mid week then a trof of low pressure will descend from the Gulf of Ak bringing breezy-cooler weather to the high country….beginning late Wednesday through the weekend…..
Tuesday June 7, 2016
Posted at 6:50 am by Howard
Above normal temperatures will continue through tomorrow Wednesday with breezy weather starting Wednesday afternoon and then through Friday. The upper pattern over the pacific appears to be progressive with a series of low pressure systems headed for the west coast the next two weeks. Thus the idea of anymore heat waves in our future is not likely until after the Summer Solstice. This is well supported by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the ensembles.
The first trof mid week will spread gusty winds into our region with a strong zephyr Wednesday afternoon into a good part of that evening. More wind is expected Thursday and Friday. A good 10 to 15 degrees of cooling is expected between today Tuesday and the following Saturday with highs in the upper 60s by Saturday. Lows will one again dip into the 30s this weekend.
This is a dry pattern and so no rain or snow is expected. The weekend trof will kick out late Sunday, with Monday a bit warmer before another trof approaches Tuesday into Wednesday that following week. That system appears to be deeper and cooler, bringing more wind…cooling and the chance of some light precipitation or ???
Note: The 3rd week of June is notorious for bringing our last hard freeze and possible snowfall, between the 15th and the 22nd.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………..:-)