Remains of TS Linda now moving into Mono County with some Moderate precipitation possible by early afternoon…..Cooler Upper Trof to bring showers….Breezy weather Tuesday into Wednesday AM…..Light Freeze expected Thursday Morning…

Tuesday Evening:

Moisture bands are holding together well as they move across the sierra. Good upslope along with the approaching cold front should allow more showers to drift over the crest and into Mammoth over night. Top of Mammoth Mt is still above freezing at 36 degrees at the moment. Some cooling will give the chance of a dusting over night over the upper elevations…

Another VT max is seen off shore and once again the models are painting it dry like this one over Mammoth.  Best to keep the chance of showers in the forecast for Wednesday…

 

Tuesday Afternoon: 3:30PM

Latest Sat Loop shows an active cold front making its way through Northern Ca. The bottom of the front will miss much of Mono County as it swings east to the north of us.  Never the less, the west side of the sierra will likely pick some light amounts of precip. Isolates showers are in the forecast for Mammoth Lakes tonight into early Wednesday AM. If there is any moisture left by Sunrise, there may be a few snow showers…..but that is a big if!   The freezing level is forecasted to be about 10K between 12z and 18Z….so out side of the crest….Nothing for the TOML. .  For Southern Mono County, it looks like mainly cooling and wind.  After this late Summer trof lifts out tomorrow, 500mb heights will begin rising by Wednesday night…with a warming trend following into the weekend.

Some great weather expected for this weekend with highs returning to the low 70s.

 

Monday Evening:

Mother nature coming to the rescue with cooler temps light showers and higher humidity. As a result, fire fighters are getting the upper hand on the western slope sierra fires. The rough fire is now 40% contained…Putting out less smoke.

A Gulf of AK upper trof will swing through Wednesday AM bringing winds and much cooler temperatures. There is even the chance of some snow showers.  The freezing level is 9900 Wednesday, so no accumulations expected…

 

The Remains of TS Linda are currently moving though Central CA and climbing the west side of the sierra. Showers and thunderstorms could begin at almost any time now,  with the main impulse and precip targeted for Southern Mono County West.  New HRRR shows QPF in the . 5 to . 65 range.

So get ready for some rain.. Great news for the forest!   Next upstream system to swing through Mono County Tuesday night/Wednesday AM….with upper jet axis close by early Wednesday AM.  This will bring a chance of rain showers Tuesday afternoon and night, then Tuesday night into Wednesday Am.  It could be quite breezy late Tuesday night into Wednesday AM. Daytime highs todays will be in the upper 50s cooling to the lower 50s by Wednesday. It will be quite breezy early Wednesday AM.  Lows at night tonight dipping into the mid 40s then upper 30th Tuesday night, then upper 20s by early Thursday morning…. A light freeze is expected….

 

Outlook:

Milder weather returning this weekend with highs back into the low to mid 70s….

El Nino is alive, strong and well……

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………:-)

Smoke and haze to continue the next few days as Rough Fire Rages…..Light easterly flow may not be enough to shift smoke to the west……Warmer than normal temps developing this week…

Wednesday:

As a trough of low pressure deepens north of Kauai, high pressure aloft will continue to build over California while some moisture spinning off Hurricane Linda has moved into the deserts of Southern CA.   Light southerly mid level flow will spread smoke from the Rough Fire northward during the afternoons while during the nighttime, the smoke will lay down into the Valleys of Inyo County because of temperature inversions.  Daytime highs will reach the low 80s the next several days in Mammoth with the nighttime lows near 50. The next change increases moisture into the Southern Mono county area Sunday and Monday for a slight chance of some showers or thunderstorms. Expect a cooling trend next week with troughing setting up along the west coast for drier, breezy and cooler weather, with the possibility that smoke from the rough fire will be suppressed well to the south of Mono County early to middle of next week.

The next chance of frontal type precipitation will not be until around the Autumnal Equinox……

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)

 

 

It looks very warm this week with unseasonable high temps for much of California. High temps will move into the 80s in Mammoth by Mid-Week.  An upper high is building west from the desert southwest. However, not in the fashion that would import monsoon moisture into our area. There may be some tropical storm high level moisture move into the sierra from the SW, later this week.  The far tropical eastern pacific is getting active again, possibly due to an atmospheric kelvin wave moving through to the south that maybe modulating tropical convection in that area……I am not absolutely sure…

Will keep an eye on the development of TS Marty later next week as he tracks north toward Baja. GFS week 2 Progs show a nasty storm with heavy rainfall and high category winds. He may cause problems for Cabo San Lucus as well.  The Autumnal equinox is the 23rd this month.  Climo-wise, there is usually a strong system that effects the far west or great basin around between the equinox and the end of Sept. (This is climatology…not a forecast….)

Lots of smoke coming out of the Rough Fire now. With little wind to flush it out, smoke will likely be a problem and will be more determined by the amount of smoke from the fire itself than anything else. I do know that there is a lot of back firing going on to gain more control on the fire.  So temporarily, that may increase the smoke but in the long run shorten the fires life.  The fire is now 31% contained with the total size approaching 100,000 acres now  This is currently the largest fire in CA burning at the moment.

El Nino; Comments from the Australian GOV:

El Niño strengthens

The 2015 El Niño is now the strongest El Niño since 1997–98. The tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are fully coupled, with sea surface temperatures well above El Niño thresholds, consistently weak trade winds, and a strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index. Weekly tropical Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies (i.e. difference from normal) in the central Pacific are now at their highest values since 1997–98, though still remain more than half a degree below the peak observed during 1997–98.

Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate the tropical Pacific will continue to warm, with the largest anomalies occurring later in the year. Typically, El Niño peaks during the late austral spring or early summer, and weakens during late summer to autumn. The 2015 event has, so far, been following a normal El Niño life cycle.

As a side note, some folks wonder why a couple of degrees Celsius makes such a big difference in the oceans heat output.    So let me put this into perspective!   One thousand Million Giga Joules = 1 degree C x top 10 meters of ocean water (1000x1000KM)

Next update this Wednesday

Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

Although Smoke and Haze has returned to the high country…Moderate WSW winds Friday will flush it out through Saturday……Haze will likely come back next week…

Saturday 1:00PM

We received a nice break from smoke from the Rough Fire yesterday as a moderate SW flow developed.  Today’s upper flow suggests a light NW flow aloft,  keeping much of the smoke suppressed to our south.  By late tonight the NW flow will weaken and Smoke from the Rough Fire will probably move north again into Southern Mono County. According to the models, increasing throughout the day Sunday and into Monday…..  The Fire is 25% contained with over 86,000 acres burned.

For a better idea on smoke forecasts for our region check out the link here:  http://www.airfire.org/data/bluesky-daily/

And here:  http://viewer.smoke.airfire.org/run/standard/CANSAC-2km/2015090500/

 

Please remember that the models used in forecasting smoke are experimental, and not always accurate.

 

The main Vort center in the Upper Trof is now into Northern CA. Winds will pick up today and continue into early evening associated with the Upper Jet that will be rounding the base and carrying the upper system east. I expect Saturday to be the coolest day with some warming coming back into Mammoth Sunday into Labor Day.   High temps will be in the low 60s today and Saturday with some freezing temps Sunday AM.

 

Here is a very good and timely link to an article from Daniel Swain, A PHD candidate from Stanford University on the current Status of El Nino and answers question regarding some of the questions of the Big Blob or anomalous warm water, both in the Gulf of AK and off the Pacific Northwest coast.

http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/category/uncategorized

 

Not mentioned in this article is “The forecast” from the CFS v2 of the Warm Blob cooling as we going through the winter, possibly as a by-product of the same things that created it in the beginning.

What is so important about the blob of warmth in the Gulf?

Well…. in the beginning of the Fall, not much. Weather systems tend to ignore it as the North American continent is still the main heat source and thus ocean temps anomalous or not have less influence on weather systems. However, as the sun gets lower in the sky and the CONUS cools, Ocean temps (SST’S) begin to have an effect by steering storms around these large masses of extra warmth such as the one in the Gulf of AK. Thus…an area of “blocking” can “Dam Up” the cold over Central Canada and deliver it south over the nations mid section and east.

In the Case of El Nino…..as the Asian Jet strengthens later in the Fall and especially January and February, the extra warmth and convection over the Nino 3 and 3.4 region clashes with a more southerly upper Jet that is common for that time of the year. The upper jet with a southern split over the east central pacific drives both moisture and energy east along the southern tier states and helps to carry Arctic Air out off the Atlantic coast. An excessive wave length occurs by the PV being displaced further to the east….and a progressive march of short waves are allowed to progress east along 30N to 37 North where they lift NE over the eastern sections of the CONUS.

The stronger or warmer the SSTA’s are,  the stronger the southern branch and subtropical jet is. As a result, a stronger signal for a wet CA winter….

So whether or not this fall is wet and it “may or may not be”…..Eventually a strong Southern Branch of the jet will develop, no later than January and CA will get pounded….

 

As a side note…..during strong El Nino’s the southern sierra gets a lot of precipitation. I hope that the ongoing fires have not destroyed critical watershed as that could be another potential problem as well.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)