Weak Ridging will bring a Minor Warm-up over the high country the next few days…..Sunday Night Monday System Trending Drier than earlier predictions….
Friday November 6, 2015
Posted at 3:38 pm by Howard
Looking at 00z runs Upper Trof and weather front are now as comparable as it looked 3 to 4 days ago. In fact the moisture plum looks a little juicier. So 7 to 12 inches with some areas as much as 15 inches over the crest at 12:1 to 13:1 at 10K and above. This snow will be nice and light! Good powder skiing Monday afternoon. The Town will get 3 to 6+ inches between Sunday night and Monday PM
Western Hemispheric pattern remains very progressive! No Eastern Pacific Blocking! New QPF still hangs on to this mornings update with close to an Inch. Snow to start Sunday night with snow likely By Midnight…. Forecast amounts in forecast discussion below still look good….
Saturday AM update:
it did not make much sense updating yesterday in that models trended drier with the storm for Sunday night and Monday. This mornings update raises hope that amounts “Maybe” more inline with earlier forecasts. Looking at the new 12z Saturday WRF/NGM it is becoming more obvious that this storm will have two parts. The Front that will come in Sunday night, and a VT max with the upper trof itself. The first part of the storm would bring up to 5 or 6 inches over the upper elevations by Monday AM. The 2nd part of the storm seems to be lagging some 6 to 12 hours behind. This second part is quite convective and “if” it come in like the WRF shows, it may bring another 3 to 6 inches as well. Convective systems are more difficult to forecast as they are associated with smaller scale areas of precipitation. This means that areas that are a few miles away from heavier areas of precipitation could be much drier. For what it is worth, latest WRF QPF for our area is now up to close to an inch. Translate that to snowfall , and considering the temperature’s, it is close to a foot over Mammoth Mt by early Tuesday AM.
The Dweebs will update Sunday morning…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………………..:-)
Its been called the best start to the ski season in 5 years! 12 to 30 inches at 3:00PM Tuesday…more light snowfall tonight!
Monday November 2, 2015
Posted at 5:52 pm by Howard
Main focus is now the late Sunday though Monday night system. As indicated earlier, this system looks to be a light to at most moderate precip producer. QPF Amounts forecasted are between .30 and .50 on the west side. There will be an orographic component and so the combination of the temperature of the air mass, IE Snow to water ratio’s); QPF and Orographic’s may still be enough to drop 5 to 10 inches over the upper elevations and that may be pushing it.. The snow that falls with be light and fluffy but not making Platinum criteria. (15 to 1 with a foot or better).
In town it will be all snow, contrary to the last storm, 2 to 5 inches is possible.
Thursday 1:00PM Update:
Lots of smiling faces around with ski conditions rated by locals as very good! Lifts Chair 3, Broadway and Ch 11 are open for business!
Next weather system will begin as snow to the Town of Mammoth as early as Sunday afternoon with the IOP Monday, Sunrise to 11:00AM.
Early Est. show between .6 and .9 over the crest depending upon which model it is. This storm is colder than the last but will be faster moving.
I expect between 5 and 10 inches at this time over the upper elevations and 3 to 5 inches in town. I’ll have another update Friday….
Mammoth Mt Update: 12 to 30 inches storm total!
Tuesday November 3rd Update:
The Dweebs are beginning to see the right kind of biases in the models for the southern half of the state. It takes a few storms in November sometime to get some sense of the biases of storms and their track.. One of the biggest messages and in fact a (((SCREEMING MESSAGE))) is that the “RRR” IE, the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge-Resilient-Ridge has not redeveloped along the west coast so far this fall. It seems to have found a home north of Hawaiian Islands where we like it!
NCEP GFS T1534
Additionally, there is “beginning to be” a trend or bias of storms digging further south in the GFS, noting the new 12z run of the “GFS T1534” for next Monday where earlier model runs brought this is as a NW slider for Mono Country favoring the Northern Sierra. The GFS now wants to dig it further south before turning east. In an El Nino year, the Dweebs would expect storms that bias a more southern track and that is currently starting to happen. However, this is not the pattern you would expect from El Nino yet. At the moment a combo of the ECMWF and GFS has upped the amounts to between 6 and 8 inched over the upper elevations for the Central Sierra next week for the 9th/10th next week. But that is just a snap shot of that time frame which is some 6 to 7 days away. PS….the latest 18z GFS as a stronger west coast system for the 16th. The EC has not got it yet….
What is just beginning to develop in the longer range charts are what snow dreams are made of, as the previously mentioned RRR is no ware to be found. The long wave ridge position is west of Kauai.
I will have my first pre weekend forecast for the Platinum powder subscribers Tonight for the Thursday opener…..I guess Mammoth Mountain could not wait!
The latest update from the Nino basin’s 3 and 3.4 show SSTA’s of 2.8C to 2.7C. This represents peaking possibly in this anomaly. I would say that there may be a little more warming based upon the updated KV in the far tropical eastern pacific. but the SSTA anomaly will most likely remain where it is to just slightly warmer the next 4 weeks.
NOTE: the new forecasts for the CPC show the eastern US having last years western blow torch and the reverse for west.
Although the snow was pretty wet in town, Mammoth mountain has picked up some great early season accumulations for 11 to 18 inches with another 3 to 6 inches possible over night…… The back of the storm is currently moving through Mammoth at the moment with light to at times moderate snowfall continuing. Cold unstable air aloft will allow snow showers to continue through Tuesday evening. Although the main upper low will stall out over the Great Basin, another band of snow may develop Wednesday morning. Latest short term guidance is digging a slider further west for mid week for this purpose.
More on that later….
The next opportunity for addition storminess in the outlook will be with a new storm about the 10th.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)
Low pressure system approaching west coast will weaken and sheer as it moves through Wednesday and Thursday….light amounts of snowfall will occur over higher elevations Wednesday/Ngt ……..Much colder system may dig south over the Sierra this coming Monday….
Monday October 26, 2015
Posted at 5:33 pm by Howard
Brief update Monday AM: Full Update Later today….
- California Rivers center shows about 2.00 of QPF slated for our own Sierrra crest by Monday night. the break down is an inch of qpf between 4:00am Monday and 10:00am so that will be the heaviest period.
- .55 from 10:00am to 4.00pm It will be all snow near the village soon…
- Another .50 between this evening and Tuesday PM…
Overall this is a 6 to 12 inch storm for the town and 1 to 2 feet for Mammoth Mt
5:00PM Wednesday Update:
This is a quick update for the QPF for the cold storm Sunday night through Wednesday.
Steady Snowfall to begin Sunday night and will end mid Monday morning. Snow showers will continue through the day Monday. Snowfall will increase again Monday night, then if Euro model is correct, snow showery Tuesday through Wednesday night with light accumulation’s. Few lingering showers possible Thursday. Dry Friday through Saturday next week.
QPF snowfall totals via the European model will range from 12 to 18 inches over the upper elevations at and above 9K. Roughly 1/2 of that at the Village and half again of that 1/2 , at Highway 395 east of Mammoth. The storm is 4 to 5 days away and so amounts are subject to change.
Snow levels will fall to the Mono County Valley floors by Tuesday.. Highs in town Tuesday in the 30s with teens and 20s on Mammoth Mt.
Fabulous snow making conditions Monday through Thursday if the EURO is correct as the upper low lingers into Thursday…to the contrary, the GFS is more progressive.
As of late…those that are following the MJO know that there is a lot of amplification in the RIMM over the Western Indian Ocean. According to the CPC, they think that it is being supported by a Kelvin Wave traveling east through that area. They feel that it is highly unlikely that the MJO signal will remain strong or move as far east to the Maritime Continent.The El Nino base state has very strong upper subsidence over that large region north of Australia that makes up the Maritime Continent. However…..Just an FYI for the west coast of the CONUS. A strong MJO progressing east from south of India, between 70E and 95E may flip the PNA to negative over the eastern pacific. Additionally…looking at the MJO composites, in November, if a strong signal goes from Phase 1 then 2 to phase 3…the odds are pretty high for the PNA flip and thus cold wet weather for CA. Maybe this is what the new deterministic ECMWF is looking at…. (See Below)
Outlook for next week….
The new October 27th, 12Z Euro really dumps the cold air in here with 700MB temps dropping to -8C by Tuesday morning. This system is from the Gulf of AK….Taps a lot of cold air from AK and BC, Can. Then drops pretty much SSE over the top of us. There is some over water trajectory, but the main dynamics will be in the cold core low as it moves over the top of us.. QPF is suggestive of up to a foot this far out over the higher terrain but this system is cold enough to bring snowfall to most of Mono County above 6,000 ft. early next week. If by chance the storm digs back west a few hundred miles….then were looking at something different….
More later…..Lets light this Candle!
Dr. Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)
The weather system west of the US has an upper Low pretty much anchored in the Gulf of AK. The upper trof pivots negative tilt and sheers southeast into CA Wednesday. It is picking up quite a bit of subtropical moisture at this time. The guidance is in agreement in weakening the upper dynamics as it moves into California Wednesday. In the meantime, lots of mid and high level moisture from the remains of Olaf will move over California Tuesday into Early Wednesday. The Dweebs take, on the QPF will be a blend of the GFS and ECMWF. Amount look to be about .25 to as high as .50 over the upper elevations. The snow level will be pretty high, generally above 8500 feet. Cooler air following the trof will allow the freezing level to come down a little Thursday, after most of the precip is gone.
The high country will have it first real taste of cold weather with a cold digging Sierra Slider early next week. So far this next system is progged to have an over land trajectory. Thus, it should not be a major precip producer. But it looks to be mostly snow in the Town of Mammoth Monday and Tuesday. This is actually a good storm to get the snow making going on Mammoth Mt as temps at 700MB are currently progging between -6 and -7C, or around 20F degrees. The Dweebs will have a better idea on snowfall amounts Thursday or Friday…. Light to possibly moderate amounts are in the cards….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)