Expect a cool unsetteled week ahead with a slight chance of showers and thunder each period the next few days…..Temperatures will run below normal….As the Great Basin Upper Trof reloads and retrogrades….even more unsettled weather is expected over the weekend……

This mornings 5 day means from the ECMWF Control Ensembles showed a ridge at 140 west and a Trof in the mean over the Great Basin. A NW flow is occurring over CA with limited moisture. Strong Mid May daytime heating will destabilize the atmosphere enough for a “few” thunderstorms over Mono County. The track of an upper low over the Great Basin today is south….Then SW over Southern CA Tuesday. This gives the southern sierra the main focus of any thunderstorms action, especially Tuesday. It will be slightly cooler today and Tuesday. Highs in the upper 50s to near 60 in Mammoth with lows near freezing.

The weather pattern according to the 00z Monday European ensembles this week shows the upper high near 140west both retrograding and amplifying. This will retrograde the upper Great Basin low westward forming a rather deep low (for this time of the year) over the far west over the weekend. This upper low has been well advertised the past 3 to 5 day for next weekend.  The Dweebs expect the upper low to be preceded by wind Thursday afternoon into Saturday AM with Snow over the upper elevations and rain or snow in town this weekend.

It is too soon to forecast any amounts of snowfall on Mammoth Mt at this time.

 

The long range models keep the trof in the mean over the far west or far eastern pacific for a few weeks.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………….

 

Nice weather week ahead with the beginning of the week offering seasonal temperatures, then above normal temps for Thursday and Friday……The weekend looks partly cloudy, breezy and slightly cooler…..Next significant upper low to effect the high country about the middle of next week…..

Tuesday AM:

Forecast on track with a little cooler day today. Some of the cooler air that dropped out of Western Canada last night will spread into the Great Basin, building surface pressures and providing for a gentle NE/SW gradient.  Any clouds that develop this afternoon are due to some marginal instability that will blow off from Nevada toward the sierra crest and may provide for a few isolated showers late in the day. Note; Any showers that may develop are not due to snow melt!   High pressure will build back in Wednesday afternoon for some warming, with a trend of warming through Friday. (Friday’s Highs Low 70s)

A weak trof with some cooling is still expected Saturday and Sunday. Highs Sunday in Mammoth in the low 60s

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The Upper low that brought unseasonable cool and wet weather to the high country moved east last night, far enough east to allow for plenty of drying and lots of sunshine. Monday’s high should reach the mid 60s with lows tonight in the drier air below freezing….

Tomorrow, a weak back door cold front will kick up a little NE wind over the upper elevations. Temperatures will remain about the same as today. A little warmer weather can be expected Wednesday with much more warming Thursday and Friday. High in the low 70s.

 

The weekend outlook shows the bottom of a Trof moving through the sierra with the wet portion in the Pacific NW and extreme Northern CA. Expect the weekend to cool to the mid 60s with some high clouds and westerly breezes.

 

As highlighted above, the longer range models shows another vigorous Trof for the 2nd half of next week…  This may be similar to what we had, last week.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…..

 

 

 

Active pattern will continue through the 1st week of May with several weather systems affecting the Eastern Sierra

Although we will have a nice break in the weather today Friday the 29th, a strong for April, back door cold front will sweep through Eastern CA Saturday morning. The system will have a strong North/South gradient, especially within the front itself. Moderate north winds in north prone wind areas can be expected with light snowfall along with colder temperatures.  Fisherman should be aware of the potential for rough waters on Crowley Lake for the opener….with wind waves potentially 2 to 3 feet over the lower half of the lake.

Snowfall accumulations will be in the 1 to 3 inch range over the upper elevations, with less than an inch over a 24 hour period in the Long Valley area.

See NWS Comments below:

A low pressure will bring gusty winds with west to northwest winds increasing later this afternoon. The winds will become stronger and shift to the north tonight as a cold front passes through about sunrise, with gusts up to 40 mph,  mainly near and east of US-395, with Sierra Ridge gusts up to 70 mph. These winds will produce choppy conditions on area Lakes through Saturday, especially over Western NV and Mono County, as winds shift to the northeast during the day and only decrease slightly. Anyone planning activities on area lakes late today into Saturday should keep posted to the latest forecasts and consider alternate plans.

 

Point Forecast for Crowley Lake:

Saturday
Scattered rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. Breezy, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Saturday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. North wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday  (Light Winds)
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming northeast in the morning.
Sunday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 33.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.

Weather Outlook for first week of May:

The cold front that sweeps through Mono County Saturday will be followed by a chilly air mass that lingers into Sunday. As daytime temps rise Sunday, the air mass will become unstable with the chance of showers and thunderstorms developing mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours. Not all areas will get rain or snow Sunday. Winds will be light on Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday will be fair with light breezes with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

The next storm will approach our area Thursday. This storm will have a strong for May, southern jet stream. Potentially, this will bring shower’s and thunderstorms with significant precipitation to the sierra. In that this is an outlook, check with the national weather services Forecast on that developing system for Thursday and Friday early next week as the Dweeb Report will possibly not update until May 9th.

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)