Above normal temps to continue for the high country this weekend…..Moisture again lurking from another tropical system to the SSE off Mexico…..
Friday September 12, 2014
Posted at 12:04 pm by Howard
Highs this weekend near 80 in Mammoth!
Record high from the past 15 years are in the upper 70s now for the Town of Mammoth. However, going back and using algorithm’s adjusted for this time of the year for The Bishop AP out 60 years shows that Mammoth has had highs in the 80s this time of the year. That is in town. At the Mammoth AP, that would be mid to upper 80s!
No 60 year record high temperature record broken for Mammoth the past 10 days…..Only 15 year records…
High temp records for Bishop AP this weekend were set during the heat wave of 1971 where it was 102 and 100 respectively Saturday and Sunday. This Sunday marks the last day that Bishop has recorded a 100 degree high in September and the rest of the fall.
Latest Satellite H20 loop shows a ridge of high pressure over California with its configuration and axis from 1000mi west of Eureka to San Diego. Warmer then normal temps will continue through the weekend with highs near 80 in Mammoth by Saturday….then into Sunday. By Tuesday the upper ridge breaks down in response to pacific energy and an upper trof pushing into the Pacific NW. As this happens, moisture from Tropical Storms Odile Moves into Southern California. However, this time as compared to Norbert, the TS is expected to weaken off shore with little dynamics moving inland. So rainfall yes in the Southern California and the deserts of the southwest but the magnitude of flooding that occurred last weekend does not look as likely.
At this time, the Dweebs are just expecting a lot of high and mid level cloudiness and afternoon buildups mid week next week for Mammoth Lakes. This mornings 12ZGFS showed between 50% and 70% RH Wednesday night and Thursday AM with a WX front associated with the NW trof coming through the Central Sierra Wednesday night. I have to say that although no rain at this time is in the forecast officially, I would not go to the bank on that just yet. There is a slight chance Wednesday night and Thursday AM. The Dweebs will take another look at it Monday. Either way it would not be much more then showers.
WX the following weekend…
After the passage of the NW trof Thursday and Friday next week. Heights build again over that weekend with a modest north-south ridge over the entire west coast north to south. That is a dry warm pattern. Then…..going into the following week, The GFSX has a rather large amplified Continental High to the East and a fairly deep trof to the west. My concerns other then it would be quite warm with above normal temps to begin with, is that a very deep channel is set up….Well down and off the coast of Baja. Thus any tropical system/moisture can really get entrained. The Dweebs will have to watch this one……
Both ECMWF and GFSX have a cut off low toward the end of September….Like about the last weekend of this month or the last couple of days of September. Something to watch…..For our first dusting of snowfall and the beginning of Indian Summer……
The Western Pacific has been fairly quiet recently. Eventually, that is going to change and when it does, you can throw out all the extended guidance and WX outlooks for California. The climo for September and early October when western pacific tropical cyclones spin up and become constructively phased with the weterlies is for a lot of pacific amplification and then more often then not….inside slider patterns to develop. This is because it is still very warm over the deserts and digging upper jets on the west side of short waves tend to bottom out then move the short wave east faster like in Spring. This is a synoptic scale gradient issue. So for the most part we end up with wind, cooling and showers. The Dweebs will give you a heads up when that is going to happen…..Late this month.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)
Two weeks left of Warm Summer Weather….Then rolling into Fall….. How is the Crystal Ball Looking for Winter…..
Friday September 5, 2014
Posted at 3:56 pm by Howard
Monday AM Update: Showers and a few thunderstorms rolled through the high county this morning. Mammothweather.com picked up .01 hundreds. More precip was possible today and this evening. This is part of the remains of Tropical depression Norbert. Temperatures will be cooler today with the absence of sunshine to a significant degree, then warm Tuesday and Wednesday. Well above normal temps are expected this weekend.
Although Strong height rises are expected by next Friday, another tropical storm is expect to spin up to hurricane strength by this Friday off the coast of south central MX. It will be called Odile. Odile is likely to become another major Hurricane and effect the Baja Coast with at least Strong Surf. The latest track is NW off the coast of Baja early next week according to the Latest GFSX. The latest 12z ECMWF was only out to Thursday night this week so no help. On a GFSX track, the Tropical storm will create another significant swell for Southern CA by the early to middle part of next week.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………..:-)
Cat 3 hurricane Norbert was off the South Central coast of Baja this morning with sustained winds of 115MPH and “out-flow” moisture moving NW over the Baja peninsula. The center will begin its weakening process soon as it moves over cooler water. Moisture will continue to Move NW up the coast of Baja and then into Southern California Sunday. There has been a change in the guidance overnight that now reflects a change in the configuration and mostly the timing of the off shore CA trof…with a slower progress. This will have the effect of drawing up moisture into Southern and Central California. Moisture from Norbert will move into the Sierra Sunday night through Monday night before it gets shunted eastward during the day on Tuesday. Thus the chance of rain showers and thunderstorms has been added to both the southern and central sierra for Sunday night through Tuesday. Although it will be dry Wednesday through the end of that week…….Another tropical storm will be lurking for the SW states the following week and is progged to move right up the Sea of Cortez.
This has been another “Best Summer Ever”! A mixed bag of above normal temps and lots of Thunderstorms. So many thunderstorm’s, that they actually kept the Mono Lake level from dropping at the usual rate. September has rolled in, above normal temperatures are expected to continue with highs in the mid 70s….
Mammoth Lakes is expected to continue experiencing above normal in temperatures. Looking that the ECMWF and GFS global models, the next 2 weeks is for dry weather with well above normal temperatures…Possibly right on through the equinox. Heights continue to be normal to above normal. The ECMWF control did show a cool down with a stronger trof mid month in which the GFSX showed nothing. The instances of above normal heights highlight both models ensembles…..and so we have lots of warm sunny days ahead for quite a while.
Climo: The CFS has above normal temps continuing through October with below normal precipitation. Remember these are climate models and do not show the day to day or even week to week weather events that are possible.
The Dweebs take: As far as any bias, it all depends upon ENSO for a wet CA. At the moment, we are looking at weak to possibly moderate El Nino and a Modoki one at that. Not all that great of a bias toward wet…unless it comes on strong later this year. And it may as Kelvin Wave action is in the cards and the PDO is still supporting it.
The QBO is quite negative in its phase and so it favors a cold east and a warm west. IE (Lots of Blocking)
The PDO is modestly positive and further supports ridging during the warmer part of the year. However, with it in the positive phase, it favors wet over Southern, CA
ENSO is neutral.
Those that predict the winter early:
Joe Bastardi is calling for the Sierra to be norm to below normal in precipitation. He is analoging the Winter of 1976-77 to this one. The Dweebs do not like that!
The Old Farmers Almanac is calling for below normal snowfall in the Central Sierra.
The Climate Forecast System at the moment is showing a winter that is late…like January or even February, but indicated very heavy precipitation for most of California February and into March
Other Climate forecasters acknowledge that it is impossible to forecast the winter with any accuracy with out including October and November in its data.
What do you think?? A lot is on the line for California.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)
The Month of August to end on a quiet note…..The Outlook is for more of the same with the week beginning with above normal temps then slightly cooler the 2nd half……It looks dry for the next 5 to 7 days….
Sunday August 31, 2014
Posted at 4:43 pm by Howard
SEE: Comments of ENSO today at Bottom.
A stable dry northwest flow across the eastern sierra will continue the trend of sunny days and cool nights. High temps will warm a few degrees between Labor Day and Wednesday. Zephyr winds will range between 10 and 20 MPH. After mid-week, a weak broad trof will provide some cooling…..down to more seasonal levels with highs in Mammoth returning to the low 70s. This is in comparison to the next two days with highs near 80. Nights now in the 40s will trend down into the 30s later this week…..
With the night times now longer, and our air mass quite dry, there will be a longer period of radiational cooling, enough for lows in some areas to get well down into the 30s. A north/south surface gradient will develop by Mid week and produce about 5 degrees of cooling by Thursday. Thereafter….a light NNE surface gradient will remain through next Sunday.
This looks like an excellent week for back country travel……………………
It will be a dry 5 to 7 day period ahead……
The CFS has been back peddling on the idea of significant precipitation mid-month. Now is trending with some precip in mind more toward the equinox. There is still a lot of warmer than normal SST’s off the coast of Baja and the Sea of Cortez is very warm. A TS coming up any ware in that area would hold together long enough to bring heavy rain to Southern CA and especially AZ.
ENSO: El Nino has yet to develop……with out it there will be little bias ENSO wise toward a wet winter from the warm side of the sign.
Of note there is still a moderate Kelvin Wave headed east that has yet to really surface….so we still have hope…..
As far as winter predictions…..the Old Farmers Almanac is out….Which in my opinion is pretty worthless to me. It is calling for below normal snowfall for the Sierra.
So get ready for a very snowy winter? 😉
I think that the CFS system will have a better handle on things as we get well into October. After all….If we are really going to have an ENSO that will support more of a bias to wet for California, it will show up by mid to late October. And if there is no bias from ENSO, other teleconnection’s would have to be relied upon. I will have more on the latest teleconnection data later this week…..like the strength of the PDO and QBO…….
Update On ENSO:
The Dweebs had a look at the latest Kelvin Wave link for the latest subsurface SST information. It looks “IMPRESSIVE” from the perspective of reenergizing the Nino Basin with heat this Fall. FYI, In the core of that current Kelvin Wave is a small +4C isotherm. That wave is now beginning to surface and in fact the NINO 4 and 3.4 region has warmed “close to” + .5C warmer then normal. It will warm further this fall…
The CFS shows the Nino 3.4 region warming to +1C by January/February. However, the Nino 1+2 and 3 are actually a bit cooler through that period, giving way to a possible Modoki Event. Although this is encouraging for Southern CA, the Dweebs would be concerned for the inland areas of Central CA, if a true modoki event developed like in 1976-77….. as there could be significant split flow action if the subtropical jet was well south of Southern CA. Of course this is all chatter…..However, it would be much easier to forecast a wet winter for CA if all of the Nino Basin was +1.5C to +2C. for this Fall and Winter.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………….:-)