Massive Dump Leaves 20 inches at the Village at Mammoth and 28 to 40 inches on Mammoth Mountain….Increasing Clouds Today Along With Breezy Conditions Expected Through Sunday….Warmer Weather on the Way…..

MONDAY AM UPDATE:

Although the Fishing Opener was cold…..Best action reported in several years!!!! Combination of waning moon and open waters most of the winter…..warmer SSTs…. highlighted the great Fishing!  Bottom Line……The fish were hungry!

Great week of weather shaping up…..enjoy it while you can……Winters Grip may return the following week in the month of May!

More Tomorrow>>>>>

 

The Dweeber………………………….:-)

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This was a pre-fishing opener storm to be remembered…..3.00 of water tallied at the snow plot on Mammoth Mt. Certainly one of the biggest storms of the year over a 24 hour period…..

The rest of the weekend will be breezy in town and windy over the upper elevations.  We still have a NW upper jet to contend with that will translate through California beginning later today, then lift north up into Canada toward mid week.  I think that it is safe to say that yesterdays storm was the last big storm of the season, but not the last storm….There will be more action later in May……

In the meantime, expect increasing clouds with an over running swath of moisture moving into the Sierra tonight and into Sunday. This moisture is associated with a strong NW upper jet that will over-run the colder air currently in place. Sometimes you can get a little light precip from it. But whatever happens, it will be no big deal. Temperatures will gradually climb through the middle of next week.

There is an emphasis on breezy conditions this afternoon and windy weather later tonight into Sunday, as we become under the influence of the front right exit region, of a powerful 150 Knot NW upper Jet!  This upper jet will initially stretch from the date line to Nevada, then all the way to Louisiana. Over the course of time, it lifts north to Canada by Tuesday as a large scale Anti Cyclone builds over the Eastern Pacific then into California. This will bring the return of late spring weather like what we had earlier this past week.

Again, most likely,  this will be the last storm of “this intensity” this season.  However, we still have plenty of time for Cut-Off Low pressure systems or even a strong cold trof from the Gulf of AK that brings spring time thunder and light to moderate snowfalls too. I like the performance of the CFS this month and last as it accurately forecasted the active weather pattern that developed in the mid to late April period well over a month ago.  You have to give credit where credit is due.   This air-sea experimental model that may be doing a better job these days because of the change of the sea surface temperatures due to the recent Kelvin wave that has moved east through much of the ENSO Basin.

It has been forecasting a wet period for the eastern sierra and Central and Northern CA for the 2nd and into the 3rd week of May. IE between the 8th and the 20th.  So mark your calendar for that time frame with a note to see how well it does. Meaning lets see if there is a storm or two during that time frame before we say a Final Farewell to the “Infamous Winter of 2014″……

 

EL Nino:

I want to make a comment about the Hype of the Big Kelvin Wave that has moved across the tropical pacific near the Equator and has successfully brought warmer then normal SSTs to a large region of the ENSO basin.  This is just one of hopefully more Kelvin Waves through out the Summer and Fall. The Kelvin Wave begins over the Western Pacific as strong westerly wind bursts cause an action/reaction in the ocean to depths down to 300M. The winds at the surface cause upwelling which causes cooling over the Western pacific and the reaction of the open wave is that warm water gets being pushed out in front of the wave that travels east below the surface, which eventually rises out over the central pacific and  beyond.

As far as predicting a big winter for the west coast due to El Nino, I am not “at this time” buying into that scenario.

Why?

Because for one, It is too early. Two, We are still in a long term cycle of the negative phase of the PDO which tends to dampen the effects of the Kelvin Waves over ENSO regions 1, 2 and 3 regions. Yes you could make the Argument that the PDO has been positive for the past three month. But only weakly positive. It would not take much for the sign to change back to negative this year.

So what could happen next Fall?  We may end up with the Modoki El Nino. A sort of hybrid where by SSTA’s are warmer than normal over the central pacific but colder than normal over the tropical eastern pacific. IE Sort of like an El Nino and a La Nina combined all in one.   I am not saying that this will happen, but it is too soon to say that it won’t.

For more information on the difference between the Classic El Nino and the Modoki El Nino, please click the following link:

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/large-scale-differences-between-the-full-basin-el-nino-and-el-nino-modoki-during-u-s-winter/

For the progress of the latest Kelvin Wave…See the following link:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

Dr. Howard and the Dweebs………………………………..:-)

 

 

 

One Last Good Sized Storm for April to roll in Friday Morning with heaviest amounts During the Afternoon through Early Saturday AM……

5:30PM Update:

Heavy convective snowfall still continues in the Mammoth area with amounts near 18 inches at that main lodge now and an estimated  2 feet over the sierra crest.  Therefore considering snowfall rates in the 2 inches per hours range, with another good 6 hours of it to go, expect between 2+ to 3 feet overall from this storm on Mammoth Mountain, and between 1 & 2 feet in town by Midnight tonight.  Colder temps are on the way and snowfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour will continue to about midnight tonight. At the 8200 foot level above the Village at Mammoth, I have 15 inches on my deck at mammothweather.com. The upper jet is still providing strong lift over the south central valley and the upper flow is driving it into the Sierra. ….ATM

Tomorrow will be chilly breezy with some lingering showers but no significant accumulation’s…just some light upslope showers.

 

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Friday PM UPDATE:

The WX front took its good sweet time in coming through the Mammoth area.  Great News though…  Mammoth Mt already has about 13 inches of new wet snow since very early this morning.  Latest Sat motion has cold core low digging south East and a real nice chunk of subtropical moisture hooking up into the system. As long as the upper open trof  remains positive tilt….she will continue to pump!

Obviously this will bring a bonanza of precipitation for the greater Central and South Central CA areas. Mammoth Mt should have no problem getting up to the 18 inches forecasted. In fact…..amounts of two feet over the crest are quite possible as there is a lot of life left in this storm which will roll well into tonight…….

 

Wax-UM UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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The Storm system for Friday will more into the Mammoth area Friday morning with two periods for precipitation. One with the weather front itself that should move through the Mammoth area by Mid Morning and the other more significant area with the upper jets front left exit region then the cold core upper low Friday night. Between both features, the QPF appears to be in the 1 to 1.5 inch range which given snow to water ratios present the possibility of some 12 to 18 inches over the upper elevations and 5 to 10 inches at 8000 feet. However, because of the antecedent warmth of our local roads pre storm…..road accumulations will probably be pretty low until Friday night when the combination of cold temperatures and the heavy snowfall begins the accumulation process more substantially.  Again the impact upon local roads will be most significant between 5:00pm Friday and 5:00am Saturday here locally.

As far as the fishing opener goes….dress extra warmly.  Early morning lows will most likely be in the upper teens to low 20s. And if there is any clearing by Sunrise Saturday it could be even colder….. There will snow showers Saturday morning with upslope along the eastern slopes of the sierra. However, the Dweebs are only expecting possibly another inch or two of snow after 5:00am Saturday…..

Rest of the weekend…..It will be breezy throughout the weekend with a chilly NW flow. Lots of over running clouds Sunday, but improving conditions later Sunday into Monday.

 

Fair, warm and dry Monday through Wednesday…

 

Dr. Howard and the Dweebs…………

 

Note: If you have been having problems with connecting with mammothweather.com,  it is due to capacity problems with the server…..I am going to a more robust server in the next 24 hours to prevent those problems for happening in the future……The Dweebs have so many friends!!!!  Thank You all for your interest….!

 

Fair and warmer the next two days then the last Storm of April to roll in Friday AM…..Although it will be a cold opener….Warmer weather is on the way beginning Sunday then well into Tuesday…….

 

Wednesday PM Update:

there are a lot of opinions several of the Dweebs out there, including forecasters’ from the east coast to the west on what this storm is going to do.  The QPF from HPC is deafening with amounts suggestive of 2.4 inches which is pretty amazing but not unusual for the Fishing Opener Weekend.

I just spoke with the lead forecaster at WSFO RNO this afternoon and he was definitely a dry foot compared to HPC, giving the Sierra about a foot over the crest for the Friday-Saturday period. The emphasis is on late Friday afternoon and evening.

 

Here is a copy of HPC discussion of a wet foot perspective….

THE START OF A RATHER UNSETTLED FEW DAYS ACROSS THE WEST… AS PAC DYNAMICS WHICH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE PAC NW ON THURS IS FOLLOWED BY A RATHER POTENT DIGGING UPPER JET TO HELP ESTABLISH A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE ENTIRE WEST COAST ON FRI WITH THE SRN STREAM TAKING OVER ON SAT AS A DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH WITH SLIGHT NEG TILT ROLLS INTO THE DESERT SW. ON FRI… LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CRASH DOWN THE WEST COAST AND GRADUALLY TAP INTO A PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PAC MOISTURE CONTENT… 850-700MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES 2 TO 3 TIMES ABOVE AVG… FOR WIDESPREAD QPF. THE MAIN FOCUS OCCURRING ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL CA AND SIERRA INTO A LARGE PORTION OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST FROM NV TO ID. THEN ON SAT… THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DRIVES THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW THROUGH SRN CA AND INTO THE WRN EDGE OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ITS THIS DAY… WHERE A LONG FETCH OF HEALTHY PAC MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH SUBTROPICAL JET DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN STATES. ECMWF 850-700MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES BECOME OFF THE CHARTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 TIMES ABOVE AVG. THUS EXPECT QPF FROM CENTRAL/SRN CA AND AZ NORTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND/COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF/UKMET WITH THE INTERNAL PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE BOTH DAYS WITH ASSISTANCE FROM PRISM DATA TO HIGHLIGHT THE FAVORED WRN TERRAIN.

 

Updating………

 

Wednesday AM

Brief Update:

Models continue to flip-flop with now the EC showing more of a split on last nights 00Z run while the 06z GFS was better in a more progressive solution. New 12z GFS out through 96 hours is very encouraging with QPF amounts in the 1.00 to 1.5 range for the Sierra South of Tahoe. If the ECMWF in its 12z Wednesday run is in line with the GFS then will be in a higher confidence situation.

The Dweebs understand that we are right in the mists of transition season and the models do not handle storms of this nature very well.  However, this will be a cold storm with -8C at 700MB down here Saturday AM and the fishing opener is going to be cold with possible mid to upper teens for the opener over Long Valley at day break….so dress warmly. High temps will climb into the low 50s during the day Saturday,  and Sunday will be warmer, then substantially warmer Monday and Tuesday.

The Dweebs are still sticking with a good 12 inches to as high as 18 inches over the upper elevations by Saturday AM…..  This is a difficult storm to forecast QPF wise because of how late it is coming in……

Will Update the QPF time permitting this afternoon….

Longer Range:

The MJO is forecasted to move into phases spaces 8-1 during the week two period. This is usually highlighted by a Cold East and a warm west.  If you look at the analog’s for the past couple of discussions you will see why.

It is what happens after phases 8-1, which gets us into weeks late 2 and 3 where the Air Sea Coupled CFS may be hinting at. I have seen plenty of Mays living here in Mammoth for over 35 years with generous snowfalls for the upper elevation while the town gets little. For you die hard skiers and borders, after this weekend there may still be another one or two snow producing systems in May!

 

The Dweeber……………………………….:-)