Breezy in Town and Windy over the upper elevations Wednesday but Dry….Slow warm up through Monday……Models Still Beating Westerlies Breakthrough Drum, Timing is toward the following weekend…..

Thursday AM:

Not much to add from yesterdays discussion. The global models all have pretty much the same scenario with a break through of the westerlies next Wednesday night supported by the eastward progressing MJO into Phase Space 8. The EC this morning has two important waves for consideration. One Wednesday night the 26th and the other Saturday night March 1st.  This is from the 00z Thursday ECMWF deterministic run.  This is the 1st time this winter that the MJO is likely to progress through Phase space 6 to 8. SEE: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml

I think that those with a strong interest should read up on the MJO and how dynamically it supports the far extension of the EAJ to the west coast.  I will post links when I have time on that matter.

It is clear to me that there were several opportunities for this extension to happen in this current winter. IE (The break through extending to the South Central West Coast, which failed because of the lack of support of the MJO. This time appears to be different, and thus there is a higher level of confidence to me from this distance in time.   Follow the MJO here and look for any hesitation in its progress for hints of any future back peddling of the guidance.

See and watch: http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html

 

The MJO:  http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap12/mjo.html

 

The Dweeber…………………….:-)

 

Trying to make the case for a break through of the westerlies into California…. 

Although the forecast has been dry through the early part of next week. The longer range models of the ECMWF and GFS has been showing an extension of the East Asian Jet well into the Eastern Pacific. When this happens, one has to look at the Wheeler and Hendon Phase space to see what is happening with the MJO as well as discussion’s relating to that action. The fact that the models are making a transition based upon both the extension of the east Asian jet and heights building northward over the far eastern pacific and up over AK is not random. “There is a cause for effect” The latest discussion from the CPC clearly identifies the causes. The MJO is forecasted to strengthen and move eastward through phases 6, 7 then 8.  “Given a persistent and largely coherent pattern of tropical convection over the next one to two weeks, some extratropical teleconnections are anticipated to become apparent. The reemergence of upper-level divergence over the West Pacific coupled with upper-level convergence over the Indian Ocean favors a reversal of the recently observed retraction of the East Asian jet stream over the next one to two weeks. This would favor lower geopotential heights in parts of the North Pacific, with downstream ridging over northwestern North America.   Additionally…..There is a reasonable chance that tropical moisture becomes entrained in a low-level circulation near Hawaii, increasing odds of above-average rainfall in that region.

(As mentioned yesterday, watch for report of heavy rains over the Hawaiian Islands later this week. That can be a sign that precedes a wet event on the central west coast)

In the meantime, amplification out about 140west will build toward the Gulf of AK. At the same time, the upper ridge will become established again over the eastern pacific. This ridge will slowly progress into California, early next week.

Sensibly, we will note that it will be a cooler day today and breezy, as a short wave passes through Mammoth this morning.  Heights will continue to rise out over the eastern pacific and so a NW flow will insure a cooler than normal weather pattern the next few days.

As the upper ridge continues to both amp and progress eastward into California the next 6 days, slow moderating temps will follow. Expect 5 to 7 degrees of warming between today and next Monday. Nighttime temps will dip into the teens, then rise to the 20s by Sunday.

By next Monday, if the westerlies are going to break through later next week, the hype will be in the media and my discussion will be but a memory……

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………..:-)

Cooler Windy Weather Returns to the High Country….Some Snow Showers possible Late Tuesday Night into Wednesday AM…It will be dry and warmer over the weekend……Westerlies break through lurking by Months End…..

 

Monday Night:

A Zonal Flow will give way to a Northwesterly flow aloft mid-week, as heights rise out at about 140 West. This is a cooler and initially windy pattern, until about the Weekend when the upper ridge builds into California and really amplifies northward the following week’  It will be at that time that forecasters will have to pay special attention to the possibility of the westerlies undercutting the upper ridge about a week from this Wednesday.  What the Dweebs like about this possibility is that the MJO moves into phase space 7 then 8 over the next week which supports the Eastern Extension of the Asian Jet to the west coast. A hint may come beforehand as we may hear about reports of heavy rains over the Hawaiian Islands early next week.

The ECMWF shows the break through well and paints up to 9 inches of water over the South Central Sierra on tonight’s 00z Tuesday Run. That would be quite the wet pattern for California.

Until then…….Nothing major out there but some windy/breezy WX along with the cooling……

Caveat:

This forward thinking long-range chatter is not a forecast. The winter has been dry and the persistence of the dry pattern is usually the most likely scenario in a year like this one. However, the Dweebs will also give you “Maverick Thinking”. It is what we do that is most enjoyable. So take it with a grain of thought…..And while Mother Nature plays out her game. It is the Bottom of the 6th inning with three left to score. Lets hope she scores big at the top of the 7th as we go into the first week of March.

 

As usual……………..Stay tuned……

The Dweeber…………………..;-)

 

Mother Nature Back Peddling now on Storm for Next week……Snowfall Yes…..Major Amounts now Very Doubtful……..

Monday Night:

A Zonal Flow will give way to a Northwesterly flow aloft mid-week, as heights rise out at about 138 West. This is a cooler and initially windy pattern, until about the Weekend as the upper ridge builds into California and really amplifies northward the following week’  It will be at that time that forecasters will have to pay special attention to the possibility of the westerlies undercutting the upper ridge about a week from this Wednesday.  What the Dweebs like about this possibility is that the MJO moves into phase space 7 then 8 over the next week which supports the Eastern Extension of the Asian Jet to the west coast. A hint may come beforehand as we may hear about report of heavy rains over the Hawaiian Islands later this week or early next week.

The ECMWF shows the break through well and paints up to 9 inches of water over the South Central Sierra on tonight’s 00z Tuesday Run. That would be quite the wet pattern for California.

Until then…….Nothing major out there but some windy/breezy WX along with the cooling……

Caveat:

This forward thinking long-range chatter is not a forecast. The winter has been dry and the persistence of the dry pattern is usually the most likely scenario in a year like this one. However, the Dweebs will also give you “Maverick Thinking”. It is what we do that is most enjoyable. So take it with a grain of thought…..And while Mother Nature plays out her game. It is the Bottom of the 6th inning with three left to score. Lets hope she scores big at the top of the 7th as we go into the first week of March.

 

As usual……………..Stay tuned……

The Dweeber…………………..;-)

 

Saturday AM:

A word about the wind event later today…..The NWS has a lot of emphasis on high winds over Mono County later today and tonight.  This upper jet in a WSW orientation is not usually conducive to super high winds in the Town of Mammoth. However areas like Crowley Lake…communities south and then areas north along the highway 395 corridor can get very strong winds from this direction like Lee Vinning, Bridgeport, Walker and Coleville . Here in Mammoth it will be windy over the upper elevations today and very windy late this afternoon and into the night. This winds should begin to diminish during the morning hours Sunday. Wind Gusts 50 to 60mph are possible…however the 70 to 80+mph gusts are reserved for the highway 395 corridor and the communities that are located very nearby. Residents of Mono County should prepare now by securing Hot tub covers and items that may get blown around.

As far as snowfall goes, only a few inches is expected later tonight into early Sunday AM. The Outlook for next week looks colder with periods of snow showers and periods of strong winds throughout the week. Significant snowfall is not expected….

Of Interest:

The all-time record for ice coverage of all the Great Lakes is 94.7 percent reached in 1979. That record is currently tied with a few more weeks to go for the ice to accumulate for that area.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)

 

Over the past 48 hours both EC and GFS have been both back peddling on the mid-week storm that looked so promising just a few days ago. The Large Scale Upper Low in the Gulf of AK progresses east up to near 140W then retrogrades westward forcing height rises over the far west. This is the same thing that has happened so many times this past winter,  and is one the signatures of drought over parts of the west. Yes the Dweebs were a bit Zealous about Fundamental changes to the winter pattern.

We are still in for light amounts of snowfall Saturday night and Sunday AM as the westerly’s with a branch of the subtropical jet sags south to Central CA Sunday AM. I do not expect much more than a few inches from that system…possibly a bit more over the crest as is usually the case as the upper flow will be natural to the Sierra for a short period of time.

More importantly, it appears that we are transiting to a drier pattern with the eastern pacific ridge setting up at around 140W to 145W then progressing to 130W later in the month. Depending upon how amplified it is, will determine whether we get any precip or not.  The upper flow will thus be predominantly Northwesterly which is typically a cooler windy pattern with the chance of snow showers from time to time. As the short waves drop their precipitation over Northern CA northward, we get what is left. Usually a few inches of snow from time to time.  The latest QPF from the CRFC (Subject to change) is for .15 for Yosemite between Monday and Thursday AM.  This equates to 1 to 3 inches of snowfall.  So the mid-week storm is now primarily snow showers. There is a lot of amplification expected Thursday into Thursday night. It look like a very windy day Thursday if the Proggs are correct The nose of a 130 Knot upper jet will sweep across Northern California bringing strong winds and snow showers…..according to today 12z GFS.

 

Over all we are in for a patter the rest of the month that will become colder than normal and somewhat drier then normal. The 8 to 10 day outlook shows the Eastern pacific ridge progressing to 130 west the last week of February which is dry with slightly above normal temps…..

This is all a big change to earlier thinking, however, it should not be all that much of a surprise in a year like this one.

 

For what ever it’s worth, the climate models today show normal precipitation the first week of March and wetter than normal conditions the 2nd week of March. However…..the over all consensus is that March will be warmer and drier than normal according to the climate forecast system.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Dweeber………………………………..:-)