GUSTY WINDS OVER THE CREST TODAY…CHILLY WEATHER WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND….FAIR WEATHER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY…THEN RETROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THE 2ND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
Thursday November 11, 2010
Posted at 9:38 am by Howard
It was a chilly morning here in the Eastern Sierra with lows in the mid teens. A building surface high over the Great Basin will keep a NNE flow going over the crest for a few days. Temps will moderate towards Climo by weekend. Mammoth will remain storm free through next Wednesday. High temps will range in the upper 30s today with lows in the teens…then rise into the 40s over the weekend.
It appears that by Friday night…another short wave will drop through the Rockies, rebuilding pressures at the surface and reinforcing the cold air over the great basin. With the mean position of the eastern pacific high at 140west, the storm track will remain well to our north and east.
For the second day now, longer range models were forecasting retrogression of the eastern pacific high back towards 160west. Both ECMWF and the GFS have retrogression in their futures. However, the ECMWF retrogrades the upper high all the way to near the date line, while the GFS has it more toward 160west.
The implications are very significant on which model is correct. If the GFS is correct a major snowstorm would be in our future toward the next weekend while if the EC is correct more of the cold air from that storm along with the upper jet would remain to our north. Obviously more time will be needed in determing the long range outlook. The Dweebs feel that by this weeks end, a better handel on the longer term can be expected. One supporting feature to retrogression is a strong spike in the MJO phase space in phase 7. So retrogression is likely. However, the big question is, how much. If there is too much, will just ridge up and stay dry.
Wednesday November 10, 2010
Posted at 8:57 am by Howard
SNOW BEGAN LAST NIGHT MID EVENING AND CONTINUED ON AND OFF IN SHOWERS. THE CURRENT PATTERN, IS SET UP WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE PARKED OUT AT 140W, AND THE DOWN STREAM TROF OVER THE ROCKIES. SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS MOVING ONSHORE NEAR WASHINGTON…..THEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY THE UPPER JET NORTH/SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA, ATM. EVEN THOUGH WE RECEIVED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER NIGHT AND MAY GET ANOTHER INCH TODAY, THIS IS A DRY PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
THE DWEEBS SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN FOR AT LEAST A WEEK. THERE HAS BEEN SOME SUGGESTION IN RETROGRESSION IN THE LONG WAVE RIDGE BACK TOWARD 160W BEYOND WEEK ONE. HOWEVER, THAT IS STRICTLY SPECULATION AT THIS POINT, AS THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN THE ENSEMBLES OF EITHER GLOBAL MODEL.
WHAT IS REALLY NICE TO SEE SO FAR IS THAT THE WESTERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN FROM THE WEST TO EAST HAS BEEN TO THIS POINT, REALLY PROGRESSIVE, WITH OUT ANY LONG TERM BLOCKING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE HUDSON BAY AREA WHERE HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN ACTUALLY HIGHER THEN NORMAL IN THE MEAN. IF YOU LOOK AT THE SSTAS OVER HUDSON BAY, THEY ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THUS NO COLD THERMAL ANCHOR FEEDING BACK INTO THE OVERLYING ATMOSPHERE………SO FAR.
AS WEATHER EXPERT AND RETRIED WSFO LEED TOM CYLKEY ALWAYS SAID, THE TWO BIGGEST INFLUENCES ON MAMMOTH WEATHER IS THE HUDSON BAY LOW FOR WINTER WEATHER….AND THE CONTINENTAL HIGH FOR SUMMERTIME WEATHER. IF THE HUDSON BAY LOW IS WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE, THERE WILL USUALLY BE ENOUGH ADJUSTMENT WAVE IN THE PATTERN TO ALLOW STORMS TO PENETRATE…WELL INTO CA.
HAVE A NICE WEEKEND…IT WILL BE FAIR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS…………………………………..:-)
Tuesday November 9, 2010
Posted at 8:38 am by Howard
“INSIDE SLIDER TO BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD TO THE HIGH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS….POSSIBLE WEAK MONO LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR LEE VINING WEDNESDAY NIGHT…THEN WEEKEND OUTLOOK IS FAIR AND DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS”
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST OTHER THEN TO DRY THE SYSTEM OUT EVEN FURTHER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST QPF FROM RFC. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH A TRACE POSSIBLE
IT WILL BE WINDY OVER THE CREST…..QUITE BREEZY FOR JUNE LAKE. EXPECT NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY PM…..THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT MONO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS CAN EFFECT AREAS LIKE LEE VINING AND AT TIMES JUNE LAKE.
MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN IS CURRENTLY REPORTING A 13 TO 30 INCH BASE.
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS………………….:-)