Moisture Fetch To Lift North With The Upper Jet Friday Night…..Very Nice Weekend Ahead!

Anytime we get precipitation with 500mb heights in the mid 570s DM it’s ugly. At 7:00am, the Freezing Level this morning was 10,000 feet over Mammoth and our air mass was pretty much saturated from the top of Mammoth Mountain  to the bottom. As a result, the snow level was pretty close to the freezing level. Looking at the new 12z runs of the WRF and GFS this am. There is going to be a decisive shift in the upper jet later Friday to the north as the general pattern Amps. Heights by 18z Sunday over Mammoth AP are forecasted at 588dm at  500MB. These are pretty high 500mb heights for the month of December. Expect strong inversions Sunday into Monday with highs at 8000 feet close to the upper 50s.  In Bishop, the high will be about 70 degrees. The record high for Bishop this Sunday was 74 set back in 1953.


The Dweebs are still expecting progression, or at the least…enough extension of the mid pacific ridge to push a portion of the Eastern Pacific Trof into the west coast by mid week, giving Mammoth more snowfall. Another encouraging sign is that MJO now into Phase Space 5 is still strengthening and forecasted to continue doing so by most dynamic model forecasts.


——————————————————————————–
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms

More Nuisance Weather On The Way This Week….Leading To A Fair Mild Weekend

Quick update this morning….

It will be pretty breezy in town and windy up on the hill today through Friday morning.  Periods 0f Snow and Rain showers are expected beginning late today…then through Friday morning with unsettled weather continuing through Friday night. Highs will be in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s. The snow level will remain high….at or above 8000 feet.

Expect a fair weekend with an especially nice Sunday. Highs will climb into the upper 50s in Mammoth. Next storm…”about” the middle of next week.

As a note….A very strong high latitude blocking pattern persists through Sunday with ridges over Greenland/Iceland and over the Western Aleutians. This is keeping up strong negative AO and NAO values and locking in a deep anomalous Trof over the eastern portions of the US and the Eastern Pacific. This will certainly test the strength of the upper jet coming off Asia for a hopeful pattern change here in California.  However, it is always possible that the block may too strong to break down.

More details to follow in the coming days……………


Dr  Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)

——————————————————————————–
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms

Western Pacific Jet May Come To Our Rescue….Next Week

Another system will push into the pacific northwest tonight bringing a lot of rainfall to coastal sections Northern California northward. The upper ridge over the far west gets flattened Wednesday with the chance of some light snowfall here in Mammoth above 7500 feet, Wednesday pm into Thursday. The pattern is considered unsettled and won’t bring much in the way of precip for the Mammoth Area. Wednesday, Thursday into Friday may be unsettled… then a very nice weekend. Temps will stay mild in the 40s with over night lows in the 20 and 30s.

It will be windy Wednesday/night.


Outlook:

Yesterday and days before…the Dweebs highlighted the possibility of the enhanced tropical mode of MJO strengthening over the Maritime Continent. See the latest MJO Discussion at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

For good technical MJO explanation see: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/MJO_summary.pdf


Those at CPC will be watching to see if the enhanced tropical rainfall mode of MJO actually develops over the Maritime Continent. (A quick look at that area looks pretty convective to me);  MJO often times modulates the westerlies when in the right phase…..Moving from the Maritime Continent to the Western Pacific. It can spawn western pacific tropical storms that effect the westerlies as well as.

The Dweebs are not sure if it is MJO that will bring about the big changes hinted in the past three runs of the global models…..

Having a look at last nights and this mornings global model runs…..ooz, o6z and 12z GFS. It is very evident that we are going to have a decisive shift in the long wave features eastward some 20+ degrees next week. This gets accomplished by a very strong, consolidated upper jet coming off Asia, extending well into the Western Pacific by mid week next week. The upstream long wave trof near Korea is extended eastward as well.

The big result is that the static block now just east of the Dateline progresses eastward to 160west and the long-wave trof shifts to 130W.  As the pattern develops further….there was suggestion in this mornings opperational 12z gfs run, that there is a break through of the westerlies under the block with a healthy subtropical branch confluent with the polar jet into Central Ca the 17th of Dec. Before that happens…the off shore trof now at 140w get pushed into the west coast about the 15th/16th.

In the meantime…enjoy the fab weekend coming up…..then get ready for some real WX next week!


The Dweeber……………….:-)


——————————————————————————–
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms