Splitting System To Bring Quick Shot Of Snow Tonight….Then Showers In The Morning….

Just a quick update:


Winter Weather advisories from 4:00pm tonight to 4:00am Sunday.

No changes to forecast. Splitting system will weaken frontal band as it approaches the Sierra. Southerly flow aloft not conducive to orographics and will not favor heavy precipitation.


Forecast remains…..  3 to 5 inches in town tonight from a quick band of moderate snow….with snow showers in the morning.  Upper elevations 5 to 8 inches….9,000feet+

Strong gusty winds over the upper elevation today

Highs in town in the 40s… lows tonight in the teens and 20s…

Some non-politically correct reading as we go into the New Year!

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/205


The Dweeber…..

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Christmas Day Eve Storm to bring a good chance of “Light Snow” for the Town Saturday Night-Sunday AM

Over the past several model runs…there has been a decisive trend to split the next upper trof as it comes into Central California. Negative tilt trofs sometimes have a tendency to do this in the southern portion as the northern portion of the storm with the jet on the front side of the trof is moving along with the system while in this case…lifting NE; while the upper jet on the back side is still digging southeast! The split is over Central Ca and will directly effect the snowfall amounts over Mammoth Lakes.

It is for this reason that the Dweebs now feel that this will be a light precipitation event as the front sheers into the Mammoth portion of the Eastern Sierra. 

Best guess….

3 to 5 inches in town and 4 to 8 innches up on Mammoth Mountain by Sunday Mid-Morning.

500mb-1000mb thickness falls of 100 dm should bring some 8 to 10 degrees of cooling by Sunday. 

Winds:

Winds were pretty light this morning at the main lodge. Even over the crest they were only 30mph gusting to 35.

The winds will increase and strengthen throughout the day with gusts to 60mph by the the afternoon over the crest. It will be even windier by Christmas AM…but should begin to subside a bit later in the day.

Snow will begin falling by late afternoon and then snow is likely Saturday night/Sunday am. Snow level is expected to be at 6500 feet.

Fair weather will return for Monday and Tuesday.


There appears to be a stronger storm out there for the 29th/30th that will be windier, colder and bring moderate amounts.  (About a foot+)



The Dweeber……………………….:-)

——————————————————————————–
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Blue Bird Morning…..Watch out for Ice Falling From The Trees The Next Few Days!

Definitely a Blue Bird Morning!  But not a Blue Bird in Sight!…….

Short wave ridging moved in over night cutting the winds down over the upper elevations and making for the most beautiful morning in Mammoth Lakes. With up to 18 inches of powder over a 12 to 16 foot base, skiing/boarding will be truly epic today!

This mornings 12z WRF model shows some high clouds moving in today and temperatures will warm up into the 40s by either today or tomorrow Friday. 

Falling Ice Concerns:

The concern is that the Pine Trees are about as loaded with heavy ice as they can be!  Once the sun hits those trees in the coming days they will unload. Keep yourself as well as your kids and cars  away from the trees especially during the late morning and afternoon.  Some of those chunks of ice will weigh over 50 lbs!

 

Forecast models: 

 The Global models from 06Z showed the next two storms over the northern pacific. The leading system was located about 2000 miles to the northwest at 45 north in the Gulf of AK.

 The new 12z WRF holds the precip off in Mammoth until late Saturday afternoon. Additionally, the new 12z WRF Thursday is pretty wet for this kind of storm developing over 2.50 inches of QPF for the sierra crest. The storm is coming in negative tilt and so it will little if any orographics.  This model may be over done on the QPF….especially since the better global model GFS 12z run Thursday has the system splitting as it comes in. More later on this later.

The next storm is located beyond the dateline and about 5000 mi west of Monterrey Ca. at 172 East.

The global models show this short wave in the westerlies moving around an amplifying ridge over the Bering Sea then dropping southeast toward California. The timing for the Sierra is about Wednesday. However…the new Thursday 12z gfs has this system being dampening out rapidly due to rising heights at 140 west over the Eastern Pacific. It may be that only a few showers may fall from this system on Wednesday. Furthermore, this system may turn out to be not much more then an inside slider with a strong NW jet over Northern Ca with high winds, snow showers and falling temps for Mammoth beginning about Wednesday the 30th and into the end of the year.  Thereafter, the west looks pretty  tranquil for a time. 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)


4:15 pm update from HPC QPF has Mammoth in the 1 inch range. So maybe up to a foot of powder….Saturday night through Sunday am…..



——————————————————————————–
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.