New series of storms to push snowfall seasonal totals toward 600 inches……1st in series in progress!

Weary Mammoth residents ready themselves for another onslaught of snow over the next 5 days. The Dweebs are betting that this current series is going to be the last for the season as far as for the amounts over a 5 day period. IE  the last big 5 day dump. Wishfull thinking?

Sure we will get more snow. However, the Dweebs doubt that it will come in the mass amounts that are expected through next Monday morning.

Reasons?

For one MJO; there is an MJO that is rapidly developing in phase 4 and progressing to phase 5 that will have the effect of building a ridge closer to the west coast next week. The MJO US Composites adjusted for climo for the month of April favors above normal temps and below normal precip in the first week of April or while it transits phase 5 toward 6 then 7.  We should be ridging up real good during the month April!


In the meantime the combination of a strong block over Central Canada and the Hudson Bay low that is set up well east of its normal position has:

1. Allowed a long wave trof to set up just off the west coast

2. Created an excessive wave length coast to coast

.3. The long wave upper ridge is located along 170west with the key height anomaly near 40 north.


Expect about 5 more day of this, before a significant pattern change sets up next week that will be both dryer and warmer.


Expected QPF through Monday AM…..7.00 inches for the crest.  IE 3-4 feet of snow for the town of Mammoth and 6 to 7 feet for the upper mountain by Monday AM.


Well we make the FAB 600 inch market?   It will be close this week!



The Dweeber……………………….:-)





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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Mammoth Mt exceeds 500 inches….next target, the notorious 600 inch winter!

What a winter! The last 3 days dumped another 5 to 8 feet on Mammoth Mountain and over three feet in the Village. Today is a break before three more system try to tally up a 600 hundred inch winter! HPC has a 6.3 inch QPF bulls-eye just west of Mammoth by Sunday morning. 6 inches over the crest at 12:1 ratio is 72 inches. We need about 84 inches so it may take one more storm beyond the weekend.

This mornings 12z WRF 500mb ht has three systems; the first storm is in the moderate class with up to a foot possible near the village by late Wednesday night.  The next system is much stronger and will bring another period of heavy snow beginning about mid afternoon Thursday through Friday mid morning. The following system for Saturday is more of a northwest slider and may not be as potent as either the first or the second. There after, the storm track will shift back to the north during the first week of April with northwest sliders more typical of Spring. Cold….windy, showery systems next week.



Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Full On Dump In Process In Mammoth….up to 3 feet already over the Crest and up to another 3 expected by Monday……Mammoth Mt closing in on a 500+ inch winter!!!

Winter apprives just in time for Spring!

Quick update this morning to report that about 18 inches has already fallen near the village at Mammoth with about 3 feet over the crest….the WX front has just cleared the Bay area and will move into the Sierra this afternoon. Another 1.5 is expected in town today and another foot tonight! By Monday morning we will be looking at totals over 3 feet in town and between 5 and 6 feet on Mammoth Mtn!  The winter storm warning will continue through 11:00pm tonight. Highs today near 30. Lows in the teens……

Get ready for another 2 foot plus storm for Wednesday…..and more through the weekend! Then the pattern may go dry the following week! (Beginning sometime during the first week of April)


The Dweeber………………….:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.