Short Wave Ridging To Bring Welcome Warming This Week…..Then A Chance Of Light Snow By The Weekend


It was a cold morning in Mammoth. -5F in town and 0F at the Village.  The Coldest temps ranged from -15F to -20F in the coldest valleys early this AM.

New 12z WRF had the upper jet north/south over Eastern Ca this morning with the progs translating it eastward out of here by tonight!  That will allow the gusty winds over the crest to expire later today and temps to finally warm up over the residential sections tomorrow. However…it will be another cold day today with highs in the 20s again for The Town of Mammoth.

The Eastern Pacific Pattern is overall pretty benign for the central west coast. IE. with shortwave ridging the  next few days then a small split off system coming into California late Thursday/Friday. 

The upper jet remains pretty split coming off of  Eastern Asia. With the jet split, there tends to create an overall pattern of out of phase systems over several areas of the Pacific.  For the west coast it generally means that central west coast big storms are on hold for a while.


HPC QPF for the Central Sierra is about 1/2 inch through Saturday AM. 


Longer range:

Of note…The Dweebs are seeing something develop…..an Arctic jet at the top of the Greenland Block that will move along in the Polar Easterlies and circumnavigate the globe and eventually end up in the Gulf Of AK by Mid month. The fantasy charts blow up a monster of a storm later in the second week of Dec associated with this Cold Arctic low.  Between now and then the mean ridge position appears to be near the dateline. The wavelength suggests that the next series of strong west coast storms will be much warmer and wetter. The entrainment of tropical moisture is also a possibility.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)



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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms

Snowy Saturday……Clearing Then Cold Tonight!

Snowfall began early Saturday. In fact by 7:00am there was already a dusting on the ground at the Village. Updated RFC QPF early this afternoon was back up to an inch for the Crest. So given water/snow ratios…were were back up to about 15 inches for the crest and 4 to 8 inches in town with about a foot or a bit better at the main lodge. This is certainly not a major storm, but a nice one nevertheless! It will be cold Sunday with highs in the 20s in town and single digits in the morning. The upper jet north/south over the Sierra will develop Monday. that means that it will be a blowing up upon the Sierra Crest!   

Santana’s for Southern Ca Tuesday.


An upper ridge in the mean is a bit too far west, out at the dateline for a good solid storm at the moment……that good for the Pacific NW but whimpy for the central coast….Stay Tuned!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


The Dweebs have you covered!


 

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms

New System To Move Into The Sierra Saturday…..Then Fair and Cold Sunday

3:00pm Update:


“WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM
PST SUNDAY”


Forecast Snowfall Forecast still good:

3 to 6 inches in town with 6  to 12 inches over Mammoth Mountain

Snow to begin falling about late Morning….


Good Morning Everyone…

This mornings 12z model runs showed good agreement with the next
west coast trof coming into the Great Basin early Sunday morning. There after…..building
eastern pacific heights behind this trof will move into the west coast Monday and Tuesday,
for a stretch of fair mountain weather and set off a Santana event for Southern California Monday- Tuesday. Thereafter….the upper flow allows for a couple of fast moving short waves Thursday and Friday that allow for some snow showers here in the high country. However the main effect of this pattern will be breezy weather locally and windy conditions for the crest. Differences show up in the longer range with the ECMWF fairly consistent with another deep west coast trof for next weekend, while the GFS has a much weaker system.

Back to the shorter range, the new model runs are coming in a bit dryer again with the Saturday/night storm for the high country. CRFC has backed off on their QPF from about an inch and a quarter near Yosemite to .88 storm total by Sunday morning.   Based upon this and the new dryer run of the NAM/WRF…the Dweebs believe that some 3 to 6 inches are in order for the Town of Mammoth and some 6 to 12 inches for Mammoth Mountain. This was the earlier thinking on Wednesday.

Snow will begin falling about mid morning Saturday with the main snowfall later Saturday afternoon through Saturday night through 10:00pm, then should decrease rapidly Sunday morning.  Winter Weather Advisories will be in order for slick roads and gusty winds Saturday night. There should be no winter travel problems except for snow covered roads leaving Mammoth Sunday afternoon.

Expect highs today Friday in the mid 40s in town with lows tonight in the 20s. Cooler weather will arrive both Saturday and Sunday with highs Saturday in the mid 30s cooling to the mid to upper 20s on Sunday. *Freezing levels will fall from 9800 to 4200 by Sunday. (*Not the Snow level)




Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)


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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms