“Mother of All Winters” working on 30 feet on Top of Old Woolly’….Over 28 Feet reported on the Upper Mountain…….Nice Break in Storm Cycles Ahead……

Monday AM:

Important points to be covering over the next 4 weeks:

  1. Mono County is officially out of the Drought. This is amazing to have happened in one water year!
  2. Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to reach historic proportions within the next week in phases 8-1.   (This will jack start El Nino again)
  3. Snowpack

Here are a few statements about where we are in the current water year and how the Southern and Central Sierra are doing,

I. Southern Sierra:

  1. The wettest winter for the southern sierra was the winter of 1969.   It had an average of 56.3 inches of water for that wet season, averaged over 6 reporting sites.  It is currently 227% of normal on February 12th. Currently, the Southern Sierra stands on par wise with the winter of 1969 to date.
  2. The wettest winter for the Central Sierra was the winter of 1983.  That winter averaged 77.4 inches over 5 recording sites. As if February 12th, it is 230% of normal to date, currently well ahead of the winter of 1983 as of Feb 12th.

Enjoy the next few mile days with highs in the 40s….Next series of snow to begin Thursday. They will be colder overall.

 

I will update in my weather letter Thursday morning, in more detail about the net series and what to expect snaofall footage wise, for the Town and Mammmoth Mt.

 

 

 

 

 

Saturday AM: 

Total Snowfall reported on Mammoth Mt….2.5 to 3 feet;  In the Town of Mammoth, 12 to 20 inches…  The forecast for Saturday calls for scattered snow showers with no more than a 1/2 an inch in town and an inch today on Mammoth Mt. Highs in town today will be near 31 and highs at 10,000 in the low 20s. It will be Sunny and warmer on Sunday.

There will be some light breezes in town today,  with gusty NNE winds mainly above 10,000 increasing this afternoon in the 20 to 30 mph range with gusts to 45 MPH. Ridge tops will gust to 50 MPH…Again…Mainly this afternoon and over the upper elevations of Mammoth Mt.   A warning trend is expected in the Town of Mammoth Monday through Wednesday with highs in the upper 40s and lows in the 20s. There will be gusty winds mainly confined to the “Sierra Crest” for the next few days out of the Northeast.

I will have a detailed forecast and outlook for next week,  and a peak at the following week at the next series of storms, in my Weather Letter to subscribers only.    http://data.mammothweather.com/landing/

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..:-)

One more Atmospheric River to hit the Sierra hard tonight and Friday with 1 to 2+Feet in the Town of Mammoth…..3 to 4 feet expected on the Mountain will be a Challenge by Saturday AM….

They say in Meteorology that the 3rd or last storm in a series is often times the biggest. This series may not be an exception….as Mammoth Mt apparently is in the Bull’s-eye sights, for this last storm in the series…..

Snow-plow driver are weary.  Not only do they have a schedule to keep during storms, but in-between storms they have to create snow storage for the next storm. Many are so exhausted working around the clock that they are numb. We have a man power loader driver shortage. There are opportunities now, for some, that want to work in Mammoth, that knows how to drive snow removal equipment. We also have a big-big shortage of snow shoveler’s. Many are making at and over $30.00 per hour.  Got shovels? Call any of local roofer’s. They are looking for bodies to shovel. One more issue….You will also have to find a place to live which is a challenge in itself.

This winter has been a major challenge, as not only is Mammoth out of snow storage, but the designated storage areas yesterday, had ramps weakened so badly by moderate rains over the lower elevations, that they were unusable. Now a small storm for Friday has turned into a big storm for the town. We all have to deal with one more.

Note: 

There is another major storm cycle headed our way in about a week. I will have a special “weather letter edition” for my subscribers this Monday on it.  If you have not subscribed yet, it is only $10.00 at this time.   It pays for staff, computer replacement and IT maintenance.

To Subscribe : http://data.mammothweather.com/landing/

 

The forecast shows about two feet+, headed for the elevation of the Village at Mammoth by Friday night. Winter storm warnings are hoisted and travelers should carry chains in all vehicles tonight and Friday when traveling Highway 395 and 203.

Technical Discussion:

Latest vapor satellite loop this morning shows a well-defined Atmospheric River. The latest guidance shows this fetch will continue to impact the Sierra today and tonight and Friday.  This is particularly true for the Central Sierra tonight as the elongated moisture feed remains in place tied to the inter tropical convergence zone north of the Equator. The TPW loop shows this well.  Integrated water vapor transport values per the ESRL are several deviations above normal maxed out at climatological values.

The Hose will be focused upon Northern California today, then shift south into Central California tonight. PWAT is generally above the 99th percentile as well…..Then increasing to near record levels as the core of the AR shifts south across the central coast. 

Dynamics:..

Deep forcing within the warm conveyor belt, ahead of the upper trof will be well supported by frontogenic forcing by the front right entrance region of the northern jet axis. That will be combined with strong orographics, as the cold front and upper trof of shifts south. This allows for a robust dynamical set up for heavy snowfall in the Mammoth Lakes and Mammoth Mt Tonight through Friday AM.  Expect a period of intense snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches an hour, early Friday morning. 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

 

 

 

Soggy Wet Storms to give way to drying and sunshine over the weekend and into next week…..Next wet pattern taking aim on the High Country Week 2 Friday into the weekend…It is looking kind of splitty at the Moment….

So far, the Town of Mammoth has picked up 2.24 inches of water from this storm, while Mammoth Mt snow plot at Sesame, indicates up 4.84 inches of water. Another 3.5 to 4 inches is expected over the crest before the last AR is over in this cycle.  The Town of Mammoth will get another 1 to 1.5 inches of water through Saturday AM.  So far, Mammoth Mt reports about 3 feet at the Main lodge and approaching 5 feet at the 10,000 foot level. Another 2 to 3 feet is expected over Mammoth Mt prior to the end of this storm cycle. The snow level is now 9500 feet. It has been raining in town since late morning Tuesday and will continue to do so through Thursday. There will be a break in the precipitation later today into Thursday morning before the next and final AR arrives later in the day Thursday.  Expect the freezing level to fall Thursday night with the snow level coming down as well, into the Towns of Mammoth and June Lake. Snowfall is expected all day Friday and Friday night.  Snow showers are expected Saturday morning in town.

Accumulations in the Town of Mammoth will be between 6 and 10 inches at the village between Thursday at 10:00PM and Friday at 10:00 AM.   The Snow level at 10:00PM Thursday will be between 7500 and 8000 feet through 10:00AM Friday. About 1.20 inches of precip is expected within the same time frame. Between 10:00AM Friday and 4:00PM Friday expect about .25. Or about and additional 2 to 3 inches of snow at temperature. Little accumulation is expected after midnight Friday night into Saturday AM.

 

Medium Range:

A nice break is expected Sunday through Wednesday next week as high pressure aloft builds over the region. However, the next series of storms look likely to hit as early as Thursday night the 16th.

Note: The Dweebs have noticed that the next storm cycle will be different, in that the pattern or storm track is developing further west. The wave length relative to the location of the central coast suggests that the upper flow becomes very diffluent as it runs to higher height’s. This means that the storms will begin to run into resistance and tend to split prior to coming on shore. Although there is lots of time for the pattern to adjust, a pattern like this may cause the storms to split south into Southern California bringing them a very wet scenario, as there is a lot of strong jet support indicated along the US/Mexican border, well south of where it has been.

Climate:

The Climate Forecast system indicates that week three or the last week of February will turn wet again. Heights at 500MB over the WPO region are anomalously high. IE (-WPO) .  This would indicate a return to AR conditions along the west coast with a strong undercutting upper jet.

I will have a special report on this next week in my weather letter at:  http://data.mammothweather.com/landing/

See 500MB Height Forecast from CFS:

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)