Mammoth Weather

After a spectacular weekend…..Monday has begun on a fair note. The Dweebs expect gradually increasing winds in the afternoon. The current upper ridge aloft will make way east in advance of the next windy weather maker March style. This mornings 12z guidance showed the rear right entry region of a 110knot upper jet sagging south the next 24 hours. This will likely induce a band of light snowfall to develop dynamically over the northern and Central Sierra Tuesday morning behind the cold front.  The FROPA is expected by 8-9 Am here in Southern Mono County. Winds will be the strongest between Sunrise and the FROPA here in the Mammoth area. QPF from CRFC is just under .3 inches for Yosemite. So 1 to 3 inches best bet. As the upper trof comes through…the effects of the front left exit region of the upstream upper jet approaches the region with an increase of wind over the crest and again the chance of some flurries or snow showers later Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday Am. The upper jet translates east Wednesday. Milder temps will return in the following days. So we begin with high temps today into the 50s with a 20 degree drop in temps expected tomorrow Tuesday. Highs by Thursday/Friday will be back into the upper 40s/50s.

So again…..After a very chilly Tuesday and into Wednesday….milder weather will return Thursday into Friday will mild partly cloudy weather expected over the weekend. Beyond the weekend the longer range models still struggling with their differences. However the ECMWF has a rather impressive long wave trof effecting California next week. We will have to keep an eye on that one.  Overall, although the MJO has been in a favorable position, the AO has remained positive and is possibly hindering to some extent precip possibilities south into the South Central Sierra.

The outlook is very similar across the hemisphere with very cold temps continuing over AK and anomalous warmth over the much of the CONUS. The winter of 2011/2012 may end up as being one of the top 10 warmer winters over the continental US historically while in areas like AK and Europe one of the colder….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

A NNW orientated upper jet will keep the winds going most of the day today. Gusts in Town will continue in the 20 to 40MPH class. The upper trof is slowly translating eastward. One last Vt Max heading SE will keep the snow showers going for a while longer. CRFC has another .3 inches for the Yosemite area between 4:00am through this afternoon and so another 3+inches is certainly possible over the upper elevations today.  So far 1.49 inches of water has accumulated in the snow melt bucket at the main lodge since the 27th with 15 inches of snow. .56 here at Http://www.MammothWeather.com at the 8200foot level. About 6 to 8 inches of snow has fallen.

Outlook:

Winds will begin diminishing later tonight but will remain gusty over the crest through Friday. Winds in town will calm down by tomorrow.

8000ft High temps are expected in the low 30s today then mid to upper 30s Friday….40s Saturday and 50s Sunday and Monday as the upper ridge slowly builds into California and over the far west by Sunday/Monday.

The next system will be a splitting system and with most of the action possibly to our north (see comment below). Expect cooler weather Tuesday and Wednesday with a  chance of snow.

Longer Range:

Models maybe underestimating the MJO effect upon the pattern for next week……MJO is in its prime position to work its magic……Further retrogression is possible with larger storms coming in further to the south.

Even the system for Tuesday/Wednesday may surprise us based upon the current forecast of a slight chance of snow……

The MJO:

Has strengthened and moved into early Phase Space 3. Further retrogression is expected in the long wave pattern across the north pacific next week. Even though the AO index is positive….this maybe very significant for Snowfall and Water for California.

Stay Tuned…………….>>>>>

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.