Mondays Storm dropped between 4 and 7 inches on Mammoth Mt with Blustery Weather expected for Tuesday/Ngt….Then fair and warmer Wednesday through Sunday……March goes out as Closed Low Season Begins in April…..

update this evening:  3/24/16

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It was a nice little storm that rolled into Mammoth late Monday afternoon. Gusty winds and moderate snow showers were in full force by 6:30PM. The snow that was falling was definitely of the convective nature. The popcorn snow pellet type hydrometeor,  common in the springtime!  At Mammothweather.com near the Village at Mammoth, I picked up .36 hundreds and between 2 and 3 inches of Snow.  I estimated that Mammoth Mt got between 4 and 7 inches of snow over night.

The upper trof axis has shifted into Western Nevada this morning with a strong upper jet NNW/SSE translating east today through midnight tonight. Thus the upper elevation’s will be very breezy to windy today and tonight as well as down through the Owens Valley. By Wednesday, the main upper jet is well east of the area but there still remains a NW flow aloft for continued breeze over the Sierra Crest.

The weather will become more congenial by Thursday and warmer as well with short wave ridging building in. Temperature’s today will be in the upper 30s then 40s Wednesday, and even 50s Thursday through Sunday.  Lows at night will be in the low to mid 20s for the most part this week…especially by Thursday morning.

For you folks coming up for the Easter Holiday weekend, expect very nice weather Saturday, with breezes on the increase by Sunday afternoon.  As the headline indicates, a change in the pattern will take place beginning Sunday night as retrogression of the long wave ridge redevelops back some 1400 miles west to 140W..  This will allow a cold trof to dig SSE from the Pacific Northwest into Eastern CA.  At this time it is not certain of its exact trajectory but it will be all snow at resort levels. If it becomes a coaster slider, we could get significant snowfall early next week as it spins up into a closed upper low. If it digs, then spins up over California, then light to possibly moderate amounts of snow can be expected. And …if it digs south into Northern CA then shifts to the Great Basin north of Mono County, it will be mostly Wind, Cooling and snow showers…..

One thing is certain….After a nice Eastern California Easter Holiday weekend, it appears that it will get cold and unsettled for the first half of next week.

12:15 PM Tuesday Update:

Looking further at the 500MB mean height forecasts from both the ECMWF and GFSX:

  1. The upper height anomaly is a bit east of 140W and there is an area of weakness over the mid latitudes just east of the dateline. Both the EC and GFS are looking at a track down through Northern CA then possibly west to the South Central Coast by Tuesday. This may still be a good position for precip for the Central Sierra South to the Mts of LA  next week as the upper jet is over water and the NE Quad of the closed low is over the Central and Southern Sierra.   More later…………………..>>>

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)

Winter to go out like Spring and Spring to come in like Winter! Don’t give up on more snowfall for the Eastern Sierra Just yet…..April should bring plenty!

Wind Advisories are hoisted for travelers today for both Mono and Inyo County’s beginning at 11:00AM

 

Monday AM:

The first of two cold fronts are moving through Central CA bringing mainly wind and cooling. Some light snow shower action may happen this afternoon, however, the main snowfall potential will be with the 2nd cold front beginning this evening into Tuesday AM. Tuesday’s weather will be highlighted by the storms cold core with cold snow showery weather expected. The storm is highlighted by a lot of wind as it is moving into antecedent conditions which were well above normal in temperatures yesterday.  As an example…Bishop reached 81 degrees on Sunday. The average high is 65 degrees and so the high was 16 degree above normal. It will be very breezy today, windy on Mammoth Mt. with highs in town in the high 40s Monday then upper 30s on Tuesday.  I expect 1 to 3 inches at the village of Mammoth by Tuesday PM and 3 to 5 inches on Mammoth Mt the sometime.

The Weather will calm down by Midweek with lighter breezes and high temps returning to the mid 50s by Thursday.

The next round of unsettled weather is expected next Monday….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………….:-)

 

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The Dweebs have taken their good sweet time in updating over the past couple of days because they have not trusted this storm. And accordingly…this system looks pretty wimpy now over Southern Mono County.  The quantitative precip forecast CRFC is for .30 inches of water over the Yosemite valley and that means for us “somewhere between” an inch on highway 395 near KMMH and up to 6 inches over the crest from this storm. So you get the picture…there may not be much of a plow….Just cinders for some ice, once the pavement melts up to an inch or two. What this storm gives up in precip it will make up in wind.  Today will be a day of light breezes over the lower slopes and breezy over the crest as the Dweebs do not expect much more than 30 to 40 MPH gusts over the top until later today. Winds will ramp up early Sunday with gusts in the 40 to 80 MPH range over the upper elevations and Monday will be even windier with gusts to 105MPH over the crest.  Winds will diminish some Tuesday….

Highs today on the mountain will climb to the 50s with low to mid 60s in town. I expect little in the way of breeze in town today until the Mid PM…

The rest of the week’s winds will alternate with breezy weather and days with much lighter breezes. Highs in town will climb to the mid 50s by Thursday.

There is some suggestion of increased amplification and retrogression next weekend and so the next chance for cooling, winds and showers may come by next Sunday night or Monday the 28th….. (This is iffy!)

 

Climate:

In the longer range I am getting conflicting signals…at least for the first week of April. The Climate Models are telling that we have some good storms in April (30 Day) outlook. However, The MJO is diving into the circle of death before it reaches Phase 8.  This is not a good sign for any significant undercutting of the westerlies…at least from an MJO forecast bases.  However, with that said, the MJO plays a less significant role in week 2 and 3 forecasts by April. By April, other teleconnections come into play which can force undercutting or at the least, drop systems down the coast giving the southern half of the state extra precip.

One thing is for sure, the easy days of winter forecasting are over because of the time of year we are coming into….

La Nina:

If you have not heard by now, there is a La Nina brewing for next Winter. ENSO is expected to be at least in neutral mode by this Summer, then in negative territory by the Fall. If you believe in the Scripps forecast model, a Major La Nina is in the offering. (-2.5C) However a blend of all the models show a weak La Nina which would be best from a climate forecast point of view associated with the highest probability of major AR events; IE (pineapple connections) for the central west coast between Dec and March.  However, at the moment, mother nature is still adding her ingredients to the mixing bowl and has not even turned on the Oven for baking yet.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)

 

Upper ridge building and upper jet headed further north….Dry weather expected through Sunday…..Chance of a moderate storm Monday…..

Upper level winds continue to diminish as the upper jet now over Oregon, lifts north into Canada by Friday.  Although a short wave Trof may bring some high clouds later today and a slight increase of wind over the Crest….The upper jet will be too far to the north by Wednesday and Thursday for any significant wind.  Strong subsidence will develop Later Thursday into Friday for strong warming for the last few days of Winter. I expect low 60s by Friday and low to possibly mid 60s by Saturday. Bishop will hit low 80s for the first time over the weekend.  Night time lows in Mammoth will still remain below freezing….

ENSO:  El Nino Southern Oscillation

I just had a peak at the SOI and the daily contribution today was +17.47.  The reason?  The convective Envelope of the MJO is over the Maritime Continent north of Australia. This is likely to aid in a more rapid cooling of the El NINO basin by strong upwelling due to the enhanced trades. A more rapid demise of El Nino may be reflected in the NINO numbers in the coming weeks. SEE: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/index.php  “Destructive Interference” is also in play with MJO and ENSO.

 

Looking at the MJO Phase space, it is evident that the MJO will be translating through Phases, 4, 5, 6 and 7 over the next 2 weeks. There is a window within the next week or so for a storm to get in here.  The global models have one next Monday. However, once the MJO gets into phase 6, 7 and early 8, it is ridge city through the end of the month and possibly into early April. SEE: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

If the MJO is strong enough in late phase 8, we may see one more run of undercutting of the westerlies with the extended EAJ. But later in April, the MJO weakens significantly climatically.

 

As an interseasonal outlook using the MJO,  we have one more storm this month next week,  before we ridge up during the first week of Spring into early April.

 

The Dweeber…………………..:-)