After a Cool Breezy Sunday, temperatures will warm again Monday and remain in the Low 80s through Thursday…..Increasing chance of thunderstorms next weekend and into the following week…

The CPC this AM gave a nice discussion in regards to the MJO, the Current Kelvin Wave and ENSO:

Here are the important points of interest:

1. A strong kelvin wave is currently out ahead of the position of the MJO’s convective envelope and interacting with the EL Nino Base state. Enhanced tropical convection is occurring south and a bit west of Hawaii near the EQ.

2. MJO is destructively interfering with the ENSO base state, but that will soon change as the convective state shifts east.

3. The Nose of the KV is located about 125west and still adding heat to the Nino Basin.

OUTLOOK:

1. The Convective state of the MJO will shift east to the eastern part of the Maritime continent with tropical storms forming their over the next 7 days. That area will shift east week 2, for the tropical longitudes between Central Micronesia and east to just beyond the Big Island of Hawaii. Expect tropical storms and typhoons to develop in that area during those times. IE north of the EQ moving west.

2. During the later part of week 2 and into week 3 (around the Fourth of July holiday or just beyond the Fourth,  the MJO will constructively interfere with the ENSO state over the Eastern Pacific for an enhanced state for Hurricane’s and tropical storms over the tropical Eastern Pacific, eventually leading to enhance the Southwest Monsoon  early the following week of July 4th.

 

FROM MONDAY: (Short term WX)

It was a nice break in the heat Sunday as the combination of short wave Trof moving through the CA/OR border and the upper high over the SW shifting east brought in winds and cooling. The strong breezes of Sunday are gone today and 500-1000mb thicknesses have increased. High temps will now continue into the low 80 through Wednesday. The next change occurs between Thursday and Friday as an upper low forms off the Northern Baja coast while a new Continental High forms over the desert SW. The result is channeled flow up from the subtropics.

Over time….The upper continental high becomes negative tilt and both moisture transport as well as upper divergence work together to bring an increasing chance of thunderstorms, beginning as early as Friday, with the odds increasing each day through the weekend and following week.

As per past discussion,  watch the location of the MJO’s convective state in Blue as it moves from the Maritime Continent to the western pacific.   Thereafter, it shifts east toward the dateline then eastern pacific, all in a three-week period.   SEE: http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/OLR_modes/f.7.MJO.html

The Core of the Blue is the area with the most intense OLR or the best convection.  That area will, within a week, create upper divergence over the tropical western pacific and  increase chance of tropical storms and possible typhoons over the Western Pacific.  Eventually it will shift to the eastern pacific and do the same.

 

Temperature forecast:          Tuesday       Wednesday      Thursday       Friday        Sat            Sunday       Monday

Mammoth Lakes:                   49/84              49/84              50/85          51/86       54/87          56/85          55/84

Bishop:                                   54/102           55/102        65/103         69/105     70/108          70/104       72/102

Above normal temperatures to continue the next 10 days for the Eastern Sierra….Continental High Reigns over the Far West…….Not much relief until the Monsoon kicks in late this month…..

Monday AM:

Looks like forecast is probably back on track….the high at Bishop Sunday was 99….Forecast was 102

High pressure builds back in by mid week with more heat on the way….  Moisture arrives by the weekend for a chance of Thunderstorm’s….

Sky Fire is 60% today contained with full containment by Tuesday….  Yea!!   Thanks to all the Fire Fighters for the swift response!

 

Sunday 12:30PM update:

Sky fire near Fish Camp along Highway 41 is still 500 acres with about 700 personal on it.  It is/was a very dangerous fire because of where is it located in reference to Yosemite.  I am happy to report that as of the last update, the crews seem to have a good handle on it and should have a parameter around it in the next 48 hours.  Today would be the worst day with dry gusty winds and Red Flag warning….  So if they can get it under control by the morning the worst as far as weather conditions will be over…

Bishop’s high temperature yesterday hit 108 breaking the old high temp record set back in 1961 of 107. Today may be slightly cooler.   As mentioned below, the NWS at WSFO Las Vegas has not been paying much attention to the Owens Valley temperature forecast.  Or maybe they just don’t care! They have a forecast of 102 today and 98 Monday. Lets see how they do. I’ll report tomorrow AM.

MJO:

Check out the updated ECMM which has been leading the way over the GFS for the track of the MJO. Remember, early last march when this signal moved strongly into Phase 7, a major westerly wind burst occurred along the equator and really set up a big Kelvin Wave.  It will be very interesting to see if this happens again in July. Not that we need any more subsurface warming under the NINO Basin. However, nonetheless it will be interesting to see how this all unfolds, especially in the Summer!  http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml

PS,   I could not get ahold of an archive of the FEB/March RIMM phase space chart for early this year.  I do remember that the MJO within Phase 7 was about off the chart.

When the new MJO get into the western pacific, look for a big increase in Typhoon activity ahead of it.  In the last strong event, two typhoons developed, one on each side of the equator. They worked together to really set up a major Westerly wind burst….. followed by KW…

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The heats on over the high country with highs in the mid 80s in Mammoth Today. WSFO Vegas have hired Met Tech’s to forecast the temperatures for Bishop AP as they have not been even close to the highs the past several days.  Come on Guys and Gals at WSFO Vegas. We care about getting the Owens Valley temps correct. You have been lagging!

As the Upper High currently over Southern Ca  shift’s east to the Texas Panhandle by Monday Noon.  During the process, a small upper jet comes through Northern CA Sunday AM and really whips up some southwest flow. Winds on Sunday will be moderate to possibly strong in some areas, especially over the sierra crest.  I hope the firefighters get out the Sky Fire soon. It is located a bit to the east near the Tenaya Lodge at Yosemite, off highway 41.  It is 30% contained and about 500 Acres. That fire is burning in some very dry forest and brush and will get whipped up by the winds Sunday afternoon.

Overall, weather picture, is highlighted by above normal heights over the far Southwest. Dry weather is likely to continue until just prior to the next weekend when the upper flow begins to turn more out of the south, then SE by Sunday.   There is an easterly wave that will track through Northern Mexico and eventually move some monsoon moisture and dynamic’s westward, then northward early the following week.

I also see an upper low over the Subtropics or Mid Latts developing. That feature along with the continental high will likely begin to channel moisture up from the south by the end of next week. Upper dynamics will possibly come in to play and so by about the end of June and into the first week of July, Thunderstorm action will make a debut after a warm  spell.

MJO:

Over the past week, the MJO shifted its upper divergent state east into the Western Caribbean and its suppressed state with upper convergence to the tropical eastern pacific. The latter will likely continue through a good part of next week. Thereafter, the convective state of MJO will re-emerge over the tropical eastern pacific by the end of the month as upper divergence redevelops into the first week of July and into the 2nd week over the tropical eastern pacific. There will be lots of fuel and a positive pattern for moisture both channeled into the desert SW and possibly CA due to weak trofing from the southwest and forcing from a combination of the southwest trof and impulses around the continental high from the Southeast.  More later as the pattern for week 2 develops later in the forecast models.

ENSO:

WOW!!!!   Check out the direction of the warming from the CPC models in May for the 3.4 region to the most recent run a couple of days ago!!! 

 

1. The Forecast from initial conditions May 21st through May 30th  See:  http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd1/nino34Mon.gif

2. The Forecast conditions June 10th through the 19th. See: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

 

This is getting very scary!  😈

And we are now beyond the Spring barrier…….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………….:-)

The Heat is On…..With deserts in the low 100s then Mid 100s this weekend…High Country Resort Levels in the 80s with Breezy Afternoons……Old MJO suppressed state over the Eastern Pacific so no Tropical Storms for a while…..Enhanced State weakening over the Western Caribbean…..Major MJO Entering Western pacific Soon…..

It will be a warm, dry and breezy at times this week in Mammoth with an absence of thunderstorms. High temps will be in the high 70s Tuesday then low 80 through Thursday. The Weekend will be extra warm with highs in the low to mid 80s.  Overnight lows will be in the 40s.

 

We are now well into Meteorological summer…..Even through the first day of Summer is next Sunday.

It was interesting to watch all the pre-season tropical storms spawn out of the ITCZ that moved up the coast from Mexico. Some of the moisture gave the Eastern Sierra and Eastern CA a lot of rainfall. Some areas got dumped on over the SW San Joaquin Valley.

Yes, the waters are warm with further warming expected over the eastern tropical pacific.  But anomalous warm water like lots of tropical moisture does not mean rainfall unless the atmosphere is working and conducive to the rainfall process. Today the tropical eastern pacific is void of tropical storms in the same area that they formed just a week to 10 days ago.  Instead, a tropical system is forming east of the Yucatan and will take aim on the Texas Coast before too long. Coincidence? No….  Areas of tropical upper divergence and areas of upper convergence are working to aid or suppress the process of tropical rainfall all the time along the equator..  Air Sea coupled systems like Kelvin waves,  and the MJO move from west to east around the globe and ENSO in the base state.  Over the past two weeks the convective phase of the MJO moved into the tropical eastern pacific creating a large area of upper divergence. (That is an area where the air moving away from itself in the upper troposphere) This large area aids in lift and makes the convective process EZ.  This large area helped to spawn tropical storms that became Cat 4 hurricanes over the days following. That same area of upper divergence has shifted east and is now effecting the Gulf of Mexico east of the Yucatan.  Behind it in the far Eastern Pacific is the systems counterpart, a large area of upper convergence which acts as a stabilizing force over the eastern pacific tropics.

Take a look at the following link. Blue areas are areas of high OLR (Outgoing Long wave radiation). An indication of the heat being released from the convective process.  The brown area is cooler, as it is an area or low OLR associated with suppressed action and upper convergence.   There areas move along the equator West to East and help to modulate tropical weather.

SEE: http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/OLR_modes/f.7.MJO.html\

Now for some tropical forcing systems in our future on an inter-seasonal time frame to watch out for……  (Timing is subject to change)

The following link is from the ECMWF Ensemble showing the updated MJO RIMM phase space showing the amplitude and location of the latest MJO. The Air-Sea coupled system is now moving over the Maritime Continent and in the next week, it will make a run for the Western Pacific. If this system gets strong enough, it may run into the Constructive Interference with El Nino about the first week of July.  This may have happened in early March when a strong westerly wind burst initiated a powerful KV eastward that is now history today, and is possibly responsible for the current El Nino.

Beyond that time frame watch the MJO to see if it remains strong into Phases 7 and 8….the MJO’s convective phase will again move into the Tropical Eastern Pacific about the end of the first week of July, for another possible Rain and Storm Event, for Mexico, Baja, The Desert Southwest and possibly Southern CA and the Eastern Sierra. I would expect the pattern of Tropical Upper Divergence to modulate and intensify the SW Monsoon, beginning during the first week of July into the 2nd Week of July.  (Note the intense area of convection week 3,  near 10N-125W)

See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20150615.NA.gif

Note, the ECMM Ensemble version of the MJO phase space below…where it is today, and where it may be headed over the next 2 to 3 weeks….

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml

ENSO:

The latest NINO3.4 forecasts (initialised in June) indicate the central tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to continue to warm throughout the winter and spring months. The average of the model forecasts for September is just above +2.0 °C, increasing to +2.3 °C by November. NINO3.4 values of this magnitude have only been observed on a handful of occasions since 1980; during the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño events. Individual model output ranges between +1.6 °C and +2.8 °C for November; all well above the El Niño threshold.

The most recent NINO3.4 value is +1.3 °C for the week ending 14 June 2015. NINO3.4 values above +0.8 °C typically occur during El Niño events.