Archive for November, 2010

New System To Move Into The Sierra Saturday…..Then Fair and Cold Sunday

3:00pm Update:


Forecast Snowfall Forecast still good:

3 to 6 inches in town with 6  to 12 inches over Mammoth Mountain

Snow to begin falling about late Morning….

Good Morning Everyone…

This mornings 12z model runs showed good agreement with the next
west coast trof coming into the Great Basin early Sunday morning. There after…..building
eastern pacific heights behind this trof will move into the west coast Monday and Tuesday,
for a stretch of fair mountain weather and set off a Santana event for Southern California Monday- Tuesday. Thereafter….the upper flow allows for a couple of fast moving short waves Thursday and Friday that allow for some snow showers here in the high country. However the main effect of this pattern will be breezy weather locally and windy conditions for the crest. Differences show up in the longer range with the ECMWF fairly consistent with another deep west coast trof for next weekend, while the GFS has a much weaker system.

Back to the shorter range, the new model runs are coming in a bit dryer again with the Saturday/night storm for the high country. CRFC has backed off on their QPF from about an inch and a quarter near Yosemite to .88 storm total by Sunday morning.   Based upon this and the new dryer run of the NAM/WRF…the Dweebs believe that some 3 to 6 inches are in order for the Town of Mammoth and some 6 to 12 inches for Mammoth Mountain. This was the earlier thinking on Wednesday.

Snow will begin falling about mid morning Saturday with the main snowfall later Saturday afternoon through Saturday night through 10:00pm, then should decrease rapidly Sunday morning.  Winter Weather Advisories will be in order for slick roads and gusty winds Saturday night. There should be no winter travel problems except for snow covered roads leaving Mammoth Sunday afternoon.

Expect highs today Friday in the mid 40s in town with lows tonight in the 20s. Cooler weather will arrive both Saturday and Sunday with highs Saturday in the mid 30s cooling to the mid to upper 20s on Sunday. *Freezing levels will fall from 9800 to 4200 by Sunday. (*Not the Snow level)

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

Reference Glossary of Weather Terms

Happy Thanksgiving from the Dweebs!!

Just a quick update at (9:00pm) to indicate more beautiful weather through Friday. Temps hit 41 here at the village today and will go to the mid 40s by Friday.  The next storm will bring light to moderate amounts of snowfall with an estimated 5 to 8  inches in the Town of Mammoth and some 9 to 15 inches over Mammoth Mountain. The period from late afternoon Saturday through 12:00 AM Saturday night looks to be the heaviest with snowshowers  through Sunday morning.

A winter weather advisory will likely be issued in the morning for Saturday afternoon/night.

Longer range fantasy charts are beginning to show some really big storms in early/mid dec.

They are hinting at a replay of last week  next month. Stay tuned and keep your snorkels handy……………….:-)

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

Reference Glossary of Weather Terms

Sunny, Cold and Breezy Today…..Warmer Temps Thursday and Friday

As forecasted….1 to 2 feet fell in the high country yesterday. The front came through about 6:30 pm noted by the wind-shift at Mammoth AP. Winds at 6:30pm were SW gusting to 40MPH then NE to 6 MPH by 7:00pm.  Winds were quite strong locally during the mid to late afternoon with a ground blizzard in many locations.  So far this year Mammoth Mountain has picked up 68.5 inches of snow. Although the water content may not be as high as in the past 30 years…there is a perception that the amount of snowfall so early in the season is within the realm of a 35 year event. Those that purchased a seasons pass this year will certainly get so much more then their moneys worth!

Forecast charts:

This mornings NAM/WRF showed the upper low at 12z Wednesday over Western Montana with a NW flow aloft at 18,000 feet. The upper jet is still offshore and so as the upper Trof comes in, that jet will have to follow…meaning that it will continue to be windy over the crest for sometime. 60 to 70mph winds are expected today into tonight confined to the sierra crest. There will still be  gusts  to 50mph into Thanksgiving Day. 1000-500mb thicknesses were 534dm this morning and so it is quite cold.  The coldest air is still aloft. However, once subsidence begins, that extreme cold will be be more confined to elevations 6000 to 7000 feet. Long Valley and Crowley may go to -10F or greater by tomorrow morning. At the same time, elevations above the inversion (8000ft) will get into the 30s Turkey day and even low 40s by Friday afternoon. 

Mixing will occur Saturday with the next Trof, and so the brief cold wave will come to an end. The Dweebs are not expecting a big storm over the weekend. So far then next system seems to be moisture starved with amounts well below winter weather criteria.  The next significant system will probably be around the 1st or 2nd of Dec.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)

Reference Glossary of Weather Terms