Archive for April, 2013

Yes…..Temperature records were broken this past weekend and another day today of broken high temps are expected.  However, Spring is a time of changing weather, and cooling is expected tomorrow.

A short wave now coming through the pacific northwest will drag a cool front through Eastern Ca and bring about 10 degrees of cooling Tuesday into Wednesday. There will be wind over the crest tomorrow as well as breezier weather in town. Our area lakes may have some white caps by mid to late PM Tuesday……Boaters take note!

High temps at 8000 feet will retreat back into the upper 50s by midweek and lows in the upper 20s by Wednesday AM. Upper ridging will return Thursday into the weekend. No precipitation is expected through the weekend.

Upper Air Pattern to change the following week for the possibility of Showers and Thunder.

A developing REX block is occurring out at 140W. The REX is highlighted by an upper level low below “latitude wise” an upper high to the north. This pattern, at this Longitude, this time of the year, keeps the westerly’s to our north and often times our weather fair. However, the block is expected to break down late next weekend with the upper cut-off drifting toward California. At the same time, a short wave dropping SE from the pacific north west may either diverge to the Rt,  thereby coupling with it, or eject it through Southern Ca to our south. The position or exact track of the upper low will be important to the forecast for our weather next week.

At this time, confidence is low because of the distance in time. However, with antecedent warmth of the upcoming weekend and the possibility of increasing divergence and cooling aloft, an unstable atmosphere may very well develop over the elevated heat source of the Sierra. Showers and thunder for the high country is a good possibility beginning Sunday PM the 5th through the 7th or 8th of May.

Longer Range Thoughts:

The Dweebs note that the QBO is still very neutral in its index and as is often the case, blocking over near the Greenland area persists. The current forecasts of the more significant teleconnections of the AO and NAO are neutral to negative and the PNA index forecast is of a weakly positive sign into May.  So more of the same weather is expected for some time to come. Warmer then normal over the Far west and southwest and Colder then normal over most areas of the Midwest and wetter then normal over parts of the east and southeast.   Will the Midwest have a slower start to their growing season?

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………….:-)

Temperature Forecast for Crowley Lake for the Fishing Opener:

Saturday                    Low 30   High 73

Sunday                      Low 32   High 72

Very Light breezes during the afternoon out of the NNE

Best Fishing Opener weather in Years…..

Full Pink Moon Thursday

Best bite in the late afternoon and evening at or near Full Moon

The Dweeber…………………….Best of Luck…….

Quick Tuesday Update:

Cold Arctic Air has invaded the Northern Plains with some of that chill spilling SW into Northern NV. This has created higher pressure at the surface and a pretty good gradient between North Central NV and the Sierra Crest. Thus NE winds will continue today with cooling as well. Moderate NE winds will gust 40 to 50 over the crest. Moderate winds will occur over the more eastern, north/south valleys of Western NV and Eastern CA Like Owens Valley and Death Valleys today.

The gradient shifts east tomorrow. It will begin to warm up Thursday……A cut off low will allow some build ups Mainly Thursday afternoon. There could be some Virga. Any shower activity will be confined to the Southern Sierra. Highs to day in Mammoth will be back into the 50s with lows tonight in the 20s.

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Monday will begin like Sunday with light afternoon breezes. Breezes with increase over the crest where NE flow develops as early as late this afternoon and cranks up after midnight tonight. A plunge of cold out of Montana will send another Arctic blast for the Rockies and Upper Midwest.  However, for California, it just means that pressures at the surface will build over Nevada and an off shore flow will set up after midnight tonight with light to Moderate Santana winds for the Southern California area Tuesday.

It will be in the mid 60s today in Mammoth with cooler air arriving after midnight tonight. Highs will cool back to the 50s on Tuesday but begin to recover Wednesday into Thursday. There is a little cut off low that will dynamically force some afternoon cloudiness as early as Wednesday PM but more likely Thursday before exiting Friday. Some light showers are possible over the Southern Sierra and South into Southern Ca. The system is too far south to really effect any of the Central Sierra.

Otherwise as promised……the Fishing opener looks fair with above normal temps…  (Will fine tune the weekend forecast this Wednesday)

There will be a pattern change the following week as the Eastern Pacific high amps and retrogrades a bit…..More on that later this week. In the meantime enjoy the week ahead…….;-)

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………..:-)