Thursday AM Update:

 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Just had a peak at the new 00Z ECMWF Control and Ensembles.  What is really nice to see and may I add different this year, is that although some storms are splitting a bit as they approach the central west coast,  the systems are progressive. The Dweebs certainly hope that the pattern remains active through years end and beyond. This is a different pattern than last year!

Lets chat about the further outlook.  There are two distinct short waves that will impact California next week.

1. According to the new ECMWF control….One that will come through the Sierra Monday afternoon, and a following short wave that will dig more down the coast Tuesday night and Wednesday AM. The first may bring us a foot plus and the other….hard to say at this point. Best guess light amounts. There is a 3rd wave for that following Saturday and now another wave the day before Christmas. Remember, strength and timing will be different over the next week or two.

2. Now…lets have a look at the new 12z GFS/X.

a. The model also has two shorts waves, however, the first wave is stronger and has better orographics as the upper flow is SW for a while. However, just after the wave clears the crest the next upstream short wave splits and heads down the coast bringing the west side a glancing shot of snow as well as more rain to Southern CA and Northern Baja.

b. The following Short Wave rolls through Friday PM the 19th. It splits as well, but not off shore according to the GFS, so there is some promise of more snowfall from it. Remember, a split flow is ok as long as split is not on the top of you.

c. There is now yet another wave for Christmas Eve.

 

Word of Advice.  Remember, both the ECMWF and the GFS/X are guidance. Not a forecast. It is the experienced forecaster that has to make sense of it all, usually within 72 hours before the event!

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From Wednesday Night:  (Current Storm) High Wind Warning now in effect for Mono County through late Thursday Afternoon.

We have already heard most of the hype on this storm. Now lets take a look at other details that will give a different perspective on this first storm.

1. It is slowing down and may not get into Southern Mono County until later Thursday Night.

2. The biggest flaw in this system is the upper flow to the sierra. The upper level winds are more out of the south than SW or WSW which is “less preferable” orographically speaking. So the Dweebs are being careful about going crazy on how much snowfall this system will bring. With that said,  it does have a lot of moisture with it…. and “lots of dynamics”.     So….1 to 2 feet? no problem;  2 to 3 feet possibly over the upper elevations.  3 to 4 feet….unlikely.  With all that said, it will bring a lot of wind and what we need to get it going up on the hill.   The best news of all is that there are at least 2 more short waves the following week going into the following weekend. The first two are also orographically challenged.   So, 1 to 2 short waves Monday into Tuesday night and yet possibly another the following Friday or Saturday. So with these other systems, we may at the end of “this storm cycle” and end up with four or more feet total….maybe….Lets get the first one in here!!!!

3. To recap timing and amounts…..

The Storm will slow down Thursday south of Alpine County with the heavier snowfall possibly being delayed until after midnight Thursday.  IOP will be between 09Z and 18Z Friday.

Mammoth Snowfall Est.  Between 1 to 2 feet in town and between 2 to 3 feet over the upper elevations…..

 

 

The Dweeber……………………..:-)