Forecast models have come into more agreement for the weekend showing where and how an upper low will move through California.  It forms a closed center near the Bay Area Thursday at 11:00AM then follows the coast line to LAX by Friday Night at 11:00PM. There after the track takes it over Death Valley by Saturday at 11:00AM.  At the Moment, between later Thursday afternoon and Sunday Mammoth could pick up between 1/2 to 1 inches of rain through the period based upon both The GFS and ECMWF……  Most of the precipitation will be north Bridgeport northward and over the Sierra and East to NV.


CPC discussion today reviled that the Strong MJO Signal is fairly static, meaning that it is most likely not MJO and is more related to the low frequency state of ENSO. There are few very robust Kelvin Waves that are moving around the earth along the EQ.  Based upon this, it is highly unlikely that strong Convection will develop in phase 3 as thought yesterday. Thus the cool down projected by the MJO Composites indicated a few days ago are probably not valid. Non the less, I do not see a change to the current pattern of periods of showers and weak troughing anytime soon….