Monday AM:

Looks like forecast is probably back on track….the high at Bishop Sunday was 99….Forecast was 102

High pressure builds back in by mid week with more heat on the way….  Moisture arrives by the weekend for a chance of Thunderstorm’s….

Sky Fire is 60% today contained with full containment by Tuesday….  Yea!!   Thanks to all the Fire Fighters for the swift response!

 

Sunday 12:30PM update:

Sky fire near Fish Camp along Highway 41 is still 500 acres with about 700 personal on it.  It is/was a very dangerous fire because of where is it located in reference to Yosemite.  I am happy to report that as of the last update, the crews seem to have a good handle on it and should have a parameter around it in the next 48 hours.  Today would be the worst day with dry gusty winds and Red Flag warning….  So if they can get it under control by the morning the worst as far as weather conditions will be over…

Bishop’s high temperature yesterday hit 108 breaking the old high temp record set back in 1961 of 107. Today may be slightly cooler.   As mentioned below, the NWS at WSFO Las Vegas has not been paying much attention to the Owens Valley temperature forecast.  Or maybe they just don’t care! They have a forecast of 102 today and 98 Monday. Lets see how they do. I’ll report tomorrow AM.

MJO:

Check out the updated ECMM which has been leading the way over the GFS for the track of the MJO. Remember, early last march when this signal moved strongly into Phase 7, a major westerly wind burst occurred along the equator and really set up a big Kelvin Wave.  It will be very interesting to see if this happens again in July. Not that we need any more subsurface warming under the NINO Basin. However, nonetheless it will be interesting to see how this all unfolds, especially in the Summer!  http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml

PS,   I could not get ahold of an archive of the FEB/March RIMM phase space chart for early this year.  I do remember that the MJO within Phase 7 was about off the chart.

When the new MJO get into the western pacific, look for a big increase in Typhoon activity ahead of it.  In the last strong event, two typhoons developed, one on each side of the equator. They worked together to really set up a major Westerly wind burst….. followed by KW…

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The heats on over the high country with highs in the mid 80s in Mammoth Today. WSFO Vegas have hired Met Tech’s to forecast the temperatures for Bishop AP as they have not been even close to the highs the past several days.  Come on Guys and Gals at WSFO Vegas. We care about getting the Owens Valley temps correct. You have been lagging!

As the Upper High currently over Southern Ca  shift’s east to the Texas Panhandle by Monday Noon.  During the process, a small upper jet comes through Northern CA Sunday AM and really whips up some southwest flow. Winds on Sunday will be moderate to possibly strong in some areas, especially over the sierra crest.  I hope the firefighters get out the Sky Fire soon. It is located a bit to the east near the Tenaya Lodge at Yosemite, off highway 41.  It is 30% contained and about 500 Acres. That fire is burning in some very dry forest and brush and will get whipped up by the winds Sunday afternoon.

Overall, weather picture, is highlighted by above normal heights over the far Southwest. Dry weather is likely to continue until just prior to the next weekend when the upper flow begins to turn more out of the south, then SE by Sunday.   There is an easterly wave that will track through Northern Mexico and eventually move some monsoon moisture and dynamic’s westward, then northward early the following week.

I also see an upper low over the Subtropics or Mid Latts developing. That feature along with the continental high will likely begin to channel moisture up from the south by the end of next week. Upper dynamics will possibly come in to play and so by about the end of June and into the first week of July, Thunderstorm action will make a debut after a warm  spell.

MJO:

Over the past week, the MJO shifted its upper divergent state east into the Western Caribbean and its suppressed state with upper convergence to the tropical eastern pacific. The latter will likely continue through a good part of next week. Thereafter, the convective state of MJO will re-emerge over the tropical eastern pacific by the end of the month as upper divergence redevelops into the first week of July and into the 2nd week over the tropical eastern pacific. There will be lots of fuel and a positive pattern for moisture both channeled into the desert SW and possibly CA due to weak trofing from the southwest and forcing from a combination of the southwest trof and impulses around the continental high from the Southeast.  More later as the pattern for week 2 develops later in the forecast models.

ENSO:

WOW!!!!   Check out the direction of the warming from the CPC models in May for the 3.4 region to the most recent run a couple of days ago!!! 

 

1. The Forecast from initial conditions May 21st through May 30th  See:  http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd1/nino34Mon.gif

2. The Forecast conditions June 10th through the 19th. See: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

 

This is getting very scary!  😈

And we are now beyond the Spring barrier…….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………….:-)