Archive for year 2016

Windy NW Slider will Morph into an inside slider with secondary upper jet…It will be windy and cooler the next few days……Strong Ridging building in over the weekend will bring a return to above normal temperatures Sunday through Wednesday…….We’re not quite done with the wet season yet as longer range charts showing a system about the 22nd with the last week of April potentially going out like a lion……..Most importantly was Scripps Winter Forecast for a Record Smashing La Nina in 2017!!!

Monday PM:

The Dweebs took a look at both the 12z ECMWF and 18Z GFS Ensembles this afternoon. The EC is certainly wetter as it forms a Closed low near the Bay Area and Moves it through South Central CA.  The GFS looks pretty Dry as the storm splits south down the coast to LA.    The sierra is going to get some snow Friday and Friday night. The question is how much. A compromise is usually in order. At the moment if you add the 2 inches that the GFS has for us to the foot the EC has, you get about 4 to 7 inches by Saturday AM over Mammoth Mt…..Not in town.

This system is not going to be a plow for the TOML unless the European model wins out..   The Dweebs will update Wednesday unless the models come together sooner….

PS.  There are more systems in back of the Friday System…..Monday and again Wednesday…..

 

The Dweeber…..

 

Saturday Noon:

Winds aloft continue to decrease as yesterdays upper jet makes its way east.  The system is now effecting the Central Rockies and look to stall out as a cut off low.  Height rises continue over CA and temperatures will move up quickly the next few days with mid 50s today and low 60s Sunday then mid to upper 60s on Monday. Full on spring weather at its finest will dominate the Eastern Sierra early next week…..

In the longer range…cooler weather will begin to occur after mid week as a series of storms make their way into California going into next weekend and possibly that following week 2…..  These storms are likely to bring significant snowfall to the Central and Northern Sierra according to the 6 to 10 day outlooks….

 

PS:  Did you know that for the most part, the current temperatures that are found online for Mammoth are really not in Mammoth?  Same for many of the temperature forecasts for Mammoth. It is all based upon Mammoth Airport which is a good 1,000 feet below much of the Town of Mammoth.  The Mammoth Ranger Station often times does not send in their reports timely, as they are sent in the day after; If you need to know actual temperatures in Mammoth Lakes you can get them at these links below and it is in real time!   The Temperatures are courtesy of Mammothweather.com at the 8200 foot level; two blocks from the village…. (Bookmark Them)

https://mammothweather.com/live-current-conditions/current-conditions/    (By the Hour)  https://mammothweather.com/live-current-conditions/hourly-data

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)

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Here is the latest updated Forecast from Scripps put out on the 11th of April….  http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-04_for_2016-12.html

Here are important points to remember about La Nina;

  1. We are in the Spring Barrier period; The impact of that upon the eventual numbers can be significant. So the actual forecast number may change significantly by mid Summer.
  2. A major LA Nina is likely to have an effect upon global temperatures with some degree of cooling.
  3. A very strong La Nina probably means another dry year for Southern California next winter.  But remember, there is no certainty’s in this Climatology, just bias. The Bias is for an overall drier than normal winter for division 6 in CA. IE South of San Luis Obispo.
  4. There is a bias out west for a colder than normal winter as well, especially in the pacific NW.
  5. Precipitation is not likely to be above normal for the Central and Southern Sierra.
  6. Moderate La Nina’s give the best odds for the most snowfall in a cold ENSO event here. However, there seem to be more drier winters than wet ones.

There are as important teleconnection’s that will be looked at in the Fall before the winter forecast is put out.   They can enhance or diminish La Nina’s effect.

The key teleconnections will be the AO (Arctic Oscillation); The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation);  The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation),  The AMO and QBO.  A warm or cold Western Atlantic is an importation consideration to the progressiveness of the upper pattern. (IE the AMO) Once these factors are incorporated into mix, the winter weather forecast can be made.

 

Jan Null a CCM at Golden Gate Weather Services has done extensive research on ENSOs effect upon California Rainfall. Check out this link below and do some of your own…..

http://ggweather.com/enso/ca_lanina.htm

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)

Sunday Afternoon’s Analysis over CA showed weak cyclonic circulation over the interior of Southern CA with scattered mainly light shower action……Over developed conditions of extensive cloudiness over Southern Mono County leads to the unlikelihood of significant precip today unless we get some surface heating….

The main action this afternoon is confined to the more dynamic area of Arizona, that is just north of the upper jet crossing Baja along with the weakening cyclonic flow over interior Southern CA. There is strong upper divergence in that area. We are definitely into hybrid forecasting today with both dynamic forcing type conditions to the Southeast and strong daytime heating with increasing surface CAPE taking off over Northern CA.  There is likely to be a lot of thunderstorms over those two areas this afternoon. Here in Southern Mono County outside of a few showers it does not look all that exciting for the rest of the day. No Deformation and no surface heating. About the only thing worth mentioning is that the Lifted’s are near 0 here and there is a small 850 convergence /250 divergence couplet showing up in the SPC over Northern Inyo County. So if the sun happens to come out long enough, we might get a shower or thunderstorm. There is certainly enough afternoon left for that…

Longer Range:

The week ahead still looks cool and unsettled through Thursday with a rather windy short wave rolling in Wednesday afternoon with the upper jet translating east Thursday morning. The closed low idea from last week is off the table.  It is expected to bring light amounts of snowfall. Possibly a few inches in town and 3 to 5 inches over the top of old woolly.   Now for the big news…..The idea of a series of storms moving through California for the next few weeks is off the table now. We are in that time of the year when the longer range guidance is not worth the 1’s and 0s that pop into the programs that produce week two and inter-seasonally Week 3 forecasts. This is not to say that we are done for the year. However, we go into a weak split flow pattern with precipitation driven more by weak closed lows rather than transitory short wave that bring actual fronts to our area. Deformation, surface convergence/upper divergence couplets and CAPE will play a more important role in forecasting in the weeks ahead.

The following weekend looks fair at this time and warmer…

 

ENSO:   You have to look at this!!!  Could this be a whopper of a La Nina?

Check out the links below.

First look at CFSVS2 SST forecast for the Nino 3.4 region from the initial conditions between March 11th to the 20th:   http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd1/nino34Mon.gif

Then compare it to the latest forecast from the initial conditions March 31st to the 9th of April: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

Good Golly Miss Molly!  What happened!!!

Now Check out Scripps’ ENSO Forecast for next Winter!:  http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/pictures.html

WOW!!!!

 

Moisture Surge from the south in process but little in the way of lift over Eastern CA today…..Instability should increase with time later today and tonight….

Radar is showing light returns over Southern Inyo Country late this AM, but little instability is over the eastern central CA ATM.   Latest guidance at 250MB on the 12z NGM and GFS has good upper divergence over the central sierra late today and tonight. CAPE is expected to increase over the crest this afternoon to 250 J/KG. So well see if we get any  showers today.

Climatology:

We are moving toward mid April now, and weather systems are being influenced more and more by daytime heating. A more hybrid situation exists with both Dynamic lift and Convection generated by surface heating.  By the time we get to Mid April, the angle of the sun in the sky is like late August. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) becomes an important parameter in the lifting process for precipitation.