All Hallows Eve

2:30PM update on Models…  (Absolutely no help!!   Euro is still under an inch of PWAT with a relatively short-term wet event with the GFS now showing a more protracted AR event lasting for 2 days!  So the EC is now less exciting and the GFS more exciting!

Kind of a spooky outlook this morning…

Few nice days ahead with cooler temperatures

Windy Friday afternoon and night..

Snow Saturday and Sunday…

Big question is still why is the European model not showing much of any “AR”?

Forecast amounts are based upon this fact this AM with 1 to 3 feet a possibility….  3 feet if the American and Canadian models are correct over the crest.

Longer Range:

I am just beginning to see the eyes of the winter now….At least for November. There is plenty of anomalous warm water in the Bering Sea somewhat like last winter but not to the same extent. The latest ECMWF 45 day 500MB heights across the north pacific or longer range is showing more of a persistent   -EPO and -WPO teleconnection like last winter….Not sure if that will continue but it is nice to see.

At least for the month of November, it is looking very good for a lot of snow for the California Sierra before Thanksgiving!  The pattern suggests plenty of “AR” possibilities…

Remember,…According to the data I have from some prominent meteorologist’s, the ENSO 3.4 region, has the area between Weak EL Nino and Weak La Nina   IE ENSO +0.5 El Nino to  -0.5 Weak La Nina with the highest odds of AR events on the west coast.

The La Nina this winter is forecasted to be a bit stronger than that, however, not a lot stronger!  Thus, I expect several good AR’s this winter for Northern and Central CA! However, unlike last winter, there is likely to be longer breaks between events.

 

The Dweeber……………………..:-)

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Even though daytime surface convection is now over that it is almost November, upper level CAPE allowed a beautiful display of Mammatus during mid afternoon to develop above 18,000 feet to our NNW. Our fair weather ridge that brought the last days of early Fall like weather has retrograded west to 145West where there is an anti cyclone developed some 1,400 Miles west of Vancouver Island, Canada. This allowed an East/West Trof to move south down over California to bring mainly high clouds and cooling which it has. The High temperature today at the Village was 61 degrees, a full 9 degrees cooler than Sunday.

Further retrogression is expected in the ridge over the next 5 days to a location of latitude north of Hawaiian Islands but up in the Gulf of AK. A long wave trof is forecasted to develop later this week. Even though the guidance suggests between 2 and 3 feet of snow over the crest, the Dweebs are not ready to buy into it quite yet as the models have not gotten into agreement in regards to the small AR forecasted by the GFS on Saturday. So yes, snow fall, but a wait and see which way the models go as far as the AR.  We may have a small AR or we might not. That will determine the amounts of snowfall over the higher elevations. A couple of more days should iron it all out.

MJO:

The Madden Julian Oscillation is in phase 8 today on the RIMM. It is strong but beginning to weaken as it heads for Phase 1 and then weakly into phase 2. The -EPO is associated with this tropical mode.  It is going to be colder than normal this weekend well into the next with the possibility of yet another upper trof..

 

Will update Thursday or sooner if the models look more reasonable….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………….:-)