Fair  weather will redevelop tonight and continue for the next few days…  Mammoth Mt reported 1 to 3 inches total with the Town of Mammoth getting a dusting. It is cold and breezy! Highs in the upper 30s today. Next upstream system will most benefit the Northern Sierra again with again light amounts expected for the Mammoth region, Thursday. (Between 1 and 6 inches over all.  I Will update Monday PM or Tuesday on amounts….

Upper jet is split into two branches this morning with one Branch over the northern part of the pacific NW and the southern branch across the desert SW and southern Rockies. As we proceed into the new week, the two jets consolidate into one strong healthy upper jet but well to the east of us. We remain in the Rear Left Quad which favors upper convergence. AKA high pressure at the surface.  The Pattern still favors migratory cyclones with the next upstream system bringing windy conditions to Mammoth Wednesday night and FLQ of the upper jet favoring The Northern Sierra again Thursday. However, with that said, the Rt  rear entry area of the upper jet (may) favor the Central Sierra Thursday. (stay tuned)

We will have a break in the weather beginning tonight through late Wednesday. Thereafter, the next  system will increase winds and bring mainly light amounts of snowfall to the Town of Mammoth Lakes early Thursday AM, through Thursday. Again, the upper jet will favor the Northern Sierra,

In retrospect, so far, the beginning of this wet season has been much more of a challenge to the medium range forecast models and thus forecasters as well.  The Dweebs will be more vigilant in noting where the upper jet track tracks. And as always, noting the front left exit region as favored, in addition to at a lesser extent the rear right entrance region…..Both areas are key to UVM.

At the moment, The MJO is close to the circle of death and thus no help from a tropical forcing factor in the short-term as it re-develops over the Indian Ocean.

Longer Range:

The big message is that the European Model is gradually pushing the upper polar jet further south week 2, as a series of cyclones progress through the west coast.  If this verifies, storms systems with higher snowfall potential will push further south the following week into the Central Sierra .  The timing is of course subject to change. However, from this point in time; looking at my calendar,  target about Monday the 13th for a storm with good Central Sierra Upper Jet Support!

This system at this point in time would have the potential to bring footage.



Once again, I thank the many readers of last years weather letter and offers of compensation for my service to do another weather letter this winter.  I will not be doing a letter this year as I found it too confining time wise. I do this as a passion, not as a job. I need the flexibility to update as necessary.

If one wants to compensate, the best way is that if you or if know of anyone that is looking to buy or sell resort property real estate in Mammoth Lakes; Contact me for real estate assistance. I have been a licensed real estate agent in Mammoth Lakes since 1982 with more than half my life providing assistance to buyers and sellers alike.    I currently have my license with Coldwell Banker Mammoth Real Estate. My contact cell number is 760-9141800 🙂


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)