The Weather over the far west is highlighted by the polar jet located over Northern California. Although there has been plenty of blocking near the Bering Sea the past week, the flow coming off Asia has been split to weakly diffluent at times. West coast weather system’s have been quite progressive with the upper jet bottoming out over Northern CA. This makes for a dry, windy pattern for the Central Sierra with below normal precipitation. This is especially true for the Southern Sierra and southern portions of the Central Sierra including Mammoth Lakes



There is some hope in the longer range models this morning as the new 11/8/17 12Z GFS control is showing more consolidated flow coming off Asia after mid month. At the same time, there is plenty of blocking in the -WPO region near the dateline.  The are an increasing number of ensembles in the GFS showing some under cutting of the westerlies with the formation of a Kona Low developing around the 18th of November. It is possible that moisture may get picked up from this area by a deep positive tilt, long wave trof extending SW from British Columbia around the 20th/21st. If this does come together, it would be more of a southern latitude system with a tropical connection or “AR” with fairly high snow levels for Central CA.  This may be followed by a colder system about the 23rd with the upper jet over Central CA as well.

For what ever its worth, the climate model,  the CFSv2  is showing the period  during week 2, which covers the 20th wet for Central CA.

Stay Tuned…the Dweebs got you covered!…….:-)