Archive for August, 2018

Beautiful Week Ahead for the High Country as Meteorological Summer comes to an end this week….First week of Meteorological Fall looks Magnificant as September begins with seasonal temps then warming above normal……Super Typhoon Jebe Will constructively phase with westerlies…Effects down-stream the following weekend…..

 

August 31st, 2018

No changes in the short or medium range outlooks today. Weather to remain fair and warm through Wednesday the 5th…..  Super Typhoon Jebe has really spun up the past 48 hours and is now a super typhoon. Both GFS and ECMWF have it recurving to the North west then North next week. They both constructively phase it with the westerlies this Tuesday the 4th PDT. Expect the energy to propagate down stream the following four days and through the west coast next Saturday…..   The Dweebs are on it!!!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)

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Little change in the weather is expected through the Holiday weekend with seasonal temperatures and cooler nights. The winds of the past weekend are abating now and we are getting back, some of that lost Summer weather, due to smoky skies. It’s a great time to be in the Sierra in Southern Mono County!

Lots of folks still concerned about a Modoki El Nino…  I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.  Still to early to call…..

 

The Dweeber………….:-)

Seasonal Temperatures to Continue into the foreseeable future with Breezy Weather Sunday…..Little Change to this Dry Pattern Next Week…..El Nino….Full Basin or Modoki….

Aug 27Th.

The Weather for the new week looks warm and dry with seasonal temperatures. That means that highs in Mammoth will continue in the mid 70s with lows at night in the 30s and 40s. Winds are on the decrease today Monday as the Trof in the Pacific NW shifts off to the east.

In that most smoke from the Lion’s fire is to the north of Mammoth, it looks like a spectacular week!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………..:-)

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Looking at the maps this afternoon there appears to be a bit less cooling now than what was earlier forecasted….So High temperatures to remain in the mid to upper 70s then cool to the Mid 70s. SO no big deal.  Sunday is expected to be breezy as the pacific NW trof passes off to the east.  It looks dry as can be for at least a week.  The models have backed off on the cool Labor day holiday…It looks pretty nice!

 

El Nino….  Everyone is talking about the Modoki which is often dry for California….

In this example of the Modoki El Nino,notice how cool it is over both the Western Pacific and especially the Eastern Tropical Pacific.

In the composite above, See that the Eastern pacific is -.5 below normal in this Modoki example.

Now Look a the CPC forecasts for the Nino SSTs regions for the seasonal; in the E-3, Lots of warmth between the central pacific and eastern pacific. Looks full basin to me.
Compare the Nino 3.4 and 4 region to the Nino 1+2 region.  Do not see the cool waters develop over the Nino 1+2 region….

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/

The Long Extended Heat Wave over Northern and Central CA is coming to an end later this Month as the Excessive Hot Summer Pattern Breaks Down…….More Seasonal Temperatures are expected by next weekend or at the latest the following week….Autumn chill to arrive…..just in time for Meteorological Fall….

Unrelated to mammoth weather….Interesting discussion on Hurricane Lane now south of Hawaii from NHC this morning;

 

The initial motion estimate is 350/5 knots, which shows a northward
turn has occurred this evening. Lane continues to be steered toward
the north along the western side of a mid-level ridge, which is
located to the east of Hawaii. The consensus guidance continues to
show a northward motion, or even a motion toward just east of due
north, as the ridge builds south and possibly southwest of Lane.
The latest track has shifted to the right of the previous forecast
through the next 48 hours. This more closely follows the latest
consensus track guidance. Note that on this track, Hurricane Lane
continues to approach the Main Hawaiian Islands, so there is no
reason to believe that anyone is safe in the warning area. Assuming
Lane begins to weaken, and decouple before, or after, it hits the
islands, Lane is forecast to come increasingly under the influence
of the low level easterlies and begin tracking westward. Again, the
exact time when this will occur remains highly uncertain, and only
a small delay in this decoupling could bring Lane farther north.
This will produce considerably worse conditions over the islands.
Even if Lane remains along the forecast track, significant impacts
are expected in the Hawaiian Islands.

1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Lane, and remain prepared for adjustments to the
forecast. Although the official forecast does not explicitly
indicate Lane’s center making landfall over any of the islands, this
remains a very real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains
offshore, severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well
away from the center.

2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as
a hurricane on Friday, and is expected to bring damaging winds.
Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of the wind
through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These acceleration
areas will shift with time as Lane passes near or over the islands.
Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of high rise
buildings.

3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
expected to lead to major, life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.

4. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with
localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period
of damaging surf. This could lead to severe beach erosion.

 

 

 

Wednesday Evening….

 

Forecast remains on track with a slow cool down. Today’s high in Mammoth was 76 degrees with an overnight low near the village of 48.  However Long Valley and Crestview were in the low to mid 30s……

Parts of Mono County will have its first freezing temperatures this weekend or at the latest early next week.  Temperatures will in general will be cooler than normal next week with highs in Mammoth down as low as the upper 60s and upper 80s in Bishop.

Overall WX pattern driven by upper ridging over central pacific and downstream troughing odd the coast of the pacific NW…..  Meteorological Autumn begins the first day of September…

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………….

 

 

 

For what may be the *hottest Summer on record for many areas of the far west is coming to a close later this Month.  A combination of troughing in the pacific northwest and the Hot Continental Subtropical Ridge over the far west will slowly work its way to the Ohio Valley according to the 5 days means by Week 2. This indicates cooler days ahead, especially during the end of the last week of August. The process will not happen overnight, but will take place over the coming two weeks…..It will be especially noticeable the end of August as an anomalous Trof from the Gulf of AK effects California.

Sundays high in Mammoth was 83 degrees and it was 103 At the Bishop AP. Highs in Bishop will still reach near 100 Monday but will pull back to the 90s as the week progresses.  Normal highs in Bishop this time of the year are in the low 90s.   I expect low 90s by the end of this week.  Mammoth Lakes highs will cool to the low to mid 70s by the end of this week. No precipitation in sight….Weeks 2 cool down may be associated with a strong Zephyr and some freezing over night lows in the high country.

It will warm back up in September…..

 

*Climo Data will be tabulated in the coming weeks….

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)