There has been a nice few days of thunderstorms in the high country with hail yesterday over the Lakes Basin.  Expect one more day of it today, then a much drier and warmer airmass sets in. Strong height rises occur Friday and Saturday much like the pattern we have had all summer that has been anomalously amplified across the CONUS.

El Nino is expected to strengthen this fall and Winter….  Lets hope it is not a *Modoki El Nino!  Highs will be in the 80s this weekend with lows in the 40s.

*The El Niño Modoki is associated with strong anomalous warming in the central tropical Pacific and cooling in the eastern and western tropical Pacific . Associated with this SSTA pattern is distinct warming and cooling which effect teleconnections very differently from teleconnection patterns of the conventional El Niño. Modoki El Ninos are often but not always dry in California. So confidence in a wet El Nino Winter for California is more limited….Will This be a Modoki El Nino Winter?   Only time will tell. Should know later in the Fall….

“Modoki” events:   1957–59, 1963–64, 1965–66, 1968–70, 1977–78 and 1979–80.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)