Sunday 1130am…

 

The Dweebs are traveling today….will update Monday morning. However, get ready for a massive storm midweek. Three feet + over crest.

The week 2 forecast looks potentionally omanious as well…..MJO is strengthening in phase space 8 into 1 late this week and next, leading to The potential for a strong negative phase EPO week two, then strong AR potential for west coast.

 

 

 

12:50 PM Wednesday

FYI

The Euro has come in wetter late this morning for Friday for our area. It still shows most of the moisture/precip on the west side. However, I am beginning to think that the upper mountain may pick up another 5 to 10 inches of sierra cement Friday/Night. There will still be a lot of shadowing for points east of the crest and so the QPF will fall off pretty quickly. The EC QPF for the town is between .25 to .40 now. But the snow level will rise to 7500.  It certainly possible that elevations from the Village at Mammoth to Canyon could get 3 to 5 inches of wet snow Friday and Saturday. Of note…the hose is a very wide one. What is strange is that the upper polar jet is NW/SE. over OR and the subtropical jet is leaving Southern CA… Weird!!! What’s generating all the PW?  Typically, we do not get this kind of PWAT from a NW upper flow. The Atmos  must be doing something else at lower levels? Anyway, with the bulk of precip is still on the west side. It will be very windy along Highway 395 Friday afternoon. Might be difficult to get flights in and out?  There may be some wind related road closures as well for high profiles Vehicles, due to the related gradient downsloping from the precip on the west side.  Again it will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

 Longer range:   

The Euro is down playing a major AR for next week with the Tuesday system, so although it shows an AR,  it is nothing unusual, again according to the ECMWF today. The GFS?? Its gone bonkers….Death and Destruction.  To embellish…you will be able to smell   Bananas, breadfruits, coconuts, mangoes, pineapples, wild apples, star fruits, papaya, guava, sour sop, you name it if it verifies.  I do not believe it at this time so just enjoy the dream.  🙂

If the Euro starts to sing the same tune….Northern Californians may need an ARC by the following weekend.  Again, this is one operational run, I do not believe it…

One thing worth mentioning that supports the GFS;  “The MJO”   http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml

In the meantime have a nice holiday!

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Short term models continue the timing with Tuesday nights runs in bringing a moderate snow storm to the Sierra Wednesday night into Thursday AM.  The Town of Mammoth is expecting up to a foot of snow while the upper mountain 18 inches+.  Daytime highs will cool to the 30s in the Town of Mammoth Thanksgiving day with 40s expected over the holiday weekend. In the storms wake is another system that will bring much more wind to our area Friday into Friday night. The Upper Jet favors the Northern Sierra most, and so a lot of the precipitation will not make it very far over the Sierra Crest. Because of this feature, snowfall amounts are going to be very difficult to estimate. Upper elevations may pick up a few inches to 1/2 foot while the Town of Mammoth may not see anymore than snow or rain showers. The warm air advection pattern associated with this system will force snow levels to rise up to 7500 feet by later in the day Friday then down over night. Overall, this is a system that Colloquially will bring 6 feet of wind and maybe a few inches of snow…Maybe not….The main focus of the weather system will be the west side and especially the northern sierra west side where up to 3 to 4 inches of rain may fall in a few areas.  The remainder of the weekend looks dry beginning Saturday afternoon into Monday.

Outlook:

Having a glimpse of mothers natures face through the American models, she definitely has that twinkle in her eyes for later next week. .  However, at time, it is too far out to go to the bank on it…..Will update Monday morning……

Happy Thanksgiving to all from Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)