12/11/18 5:15pm

Attended CPC meeting….Presenter indicated that the MJO will remain active and will propagate East into the Maritime Continent. With phases 3 and 4 into well into December. That goes against the idea of a cold period the weekend before Christmas and leans toward above normal temps Christmas Week. More later…..

December 11th, 2018:

Below normal temperatures have arrived once again in Mammoth with Daytime high temperatures back into the upper 30 and low 40s……Nighttime lows in the teens.  Although the weather pattern is active, little in the way of any snow is expected this week. Just the possibility of some periods of light snow showers. Stronger storm energy arrives by the Sunday/Monday period. Preliminary guidance shows a moderate snow producing storm bringing the possibility of some 6 to 12 inches for the upper elevations by late Monday. The Euro model has been pretty consistent in splitting the energy just prior to this storms arrival on the west coast…So major amounts are unlikely.  If we stick with the guidance of the ECMWF global model, temperatures will moderate upwards Tuesday through Wednesday next week with the pattern becoming very amplified Friday into the weekend before Christmas. The guidance shows a very cold Great Basin low developing with a series of inside sliders. The pattern has continental air in it and that’s cold! So although at this time, a major snow producing storm is not in the cards through the weekend prior to Christmas. There are storms capable of producing light to moderate snowfall. (Moderate Snow 6-18 inches)  

MJO:   According to the CPC; The MJO is expected to play a role in the tropical-extratropical teleconnections over the next few weeks. Short-term colder-than-normal temperatures over east-central CONUS is consistent with MJO forcing, while the enhanced phase over the Indian Ocean during the next 1-2 weeks favors a warmer pattern during the second half of December for the east. This is consistent with positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) index predictions over the next two weeks.

Note; Often times when the east is warm, the west is stormy and cold….Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………:-)


A series of weak weather systems will be affecting our region the next week with a slight chance of snow showers but no significate accumulations expected. Winds over the upper levels will gust up to 50 MPH at times.

Daytime highs will range in the 30s and even some low 40s with teens and 20s at night. The further outlook for the upcoming weekend via the GFS Global Model, show better consolidation in the upper flow that would give a better forcing mechanism and lift to west coast storms. At the present time, Southern CA appears to be out of the storm track for some time…

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)