The pattern change at this distance in time is a bit tricky as the Arctic air that is setting up over the Northern Midwest and Great Lakes region is forced to flush east and off shore by the next weekend… Initial track of pacific storms will be from the NW, through the west coast ridge that is breaking down this week for mainly light to possibly moderate precipitation with the best chance next weekend. Also we do not know how far west or how close to the coast the initial vort lobe is going to be that the GFS has in its proggs mid-week. No matter, this does not look like much. Just more of a nuisance system. The short wave is headed through high pressure and so light precip is mainly the possibily.

By the weekend or just beyond, the eastern pacific ridge retrogrades and amplifies just west of 140W, which in late January and early February is a cold pattern for CA. Long wave teleconnections suggests, coastal or inland sliders with varying amounts of over water trajectory. However, more time is needed to work out the details. A lot will depend upon how amplifyed the pattern gets.

MJO Support;

The GFS is consistent in its strong MJO through phase 7. The ECMWF is not as strong but at least is trending into 7 now….Good Support for a wet California week 2.