2/27/2019. 5:00am

The AR has weakened and moved south into Mono County this morning and light to moderate snow fall can be expected through Thursday. Amounts above 7500 feet including the town will vary between 4 and 12 inches by Thursday afternoon.  There will be a break Friday with a small storm Saturday.  There appears to be a bigger system in the eastern pacific with a sizable AR will affect Mono County next Tuesday and Wednesday. With the AK block breaking down and a higher amplified upstream ridge taking shape, The pattern begins to favor areas more to the south again as the next week progresses.

At this time, the longer range shows no let up in the series of storms for the month of March….


the Dweeber……..



Hello Fellow Dweebs!..   I have been asked several times about the Snow Phone and why it has not been working since the end of last month.   Well, it got lost in my move at the end of January, meaning that the phone company was not been able to get the phone line set up mostly due to the weather. That changed today. Hopefully, the weather phone will be in operation this weekend.

Mammoth sure has had an interesting winter so far.  There are actually two full days left of Meteorological winter as March first is the first day of meteorological Spring. This is different than the astronomical seasons by the calendar. The differences in this case, lie more in the behavior of climate in March than the three month previous.

The Past Week;

The forecast has worked out well.  It was indicated that a pattern change would be initiated by the Madden Julian Oscillation some 10 days ago as it was forecasted to move from phase 7 to 8 then cross into Phase 1, (East of the Date line). The tropical convection of the MJO continues strong. In my opinion, it initiated the (-EPO) and that was the cause of the change.  This change happened last weekend and here we are with a Closed Blocking high over Alaska, a strong trof over Eastern Russia and the EAJ forcing itself upon the block, splitting short wave energy under the block in the form of a negative height anomaly between the GOA and NE of Hawaii. The persistent upper low off the coast of the pacific northwest is phased with the flow coming northeast north of Hawaii. This is your moderate AR into Northern CA. Although the bulk of the energy as far as precip is focused from the Bay Area NE to Tahoe as expected, the winds have been horrendous. The cold air left in place from last weeks cold wave initially added to the gradient, then combined with over running warm air advection creating a downslope signature along the Lee of the Sierra Front. Most of the serious winds have been between June Lake along Highway 395 north to Reno. Gusts to about 100 miles per hours toppled several 18 wheelers along the highway Monday afternoon. The Down Slope signature is still there so be careful when traveling. Not only do to the Winds create problems for high profile travelers, but due to ground blizzard conditions, visibility can be reduced to zero at times as well.

Looking Forward:

The AR is shifting south and weakening. Best snowfall for the high country will be Wednesday morning into Thursday with amounts in the Town of Mammoth at the 8000 foot level between 10 and 20 inches and over the upper elevations about 20 to 30 inches between midnight Tuesday night and Thursday evening.  There will be a break Friday with the next system coming in Saturday into Sunday.  The models have been steadily weakening this storm and on the 18Z GFS dampening it out. There is not a lot of confidence in how much snowfall we will get but as time goes by it is looking less and less. Best guess get 4 to 6 inches in town and some 6 to 12 inches on the mountain.  I will update on amounts again on the weekend storm Thursday. I am sure amounts will change.


Longer Range:

The MJO is on the move, quickly going from Phases 1 to 3.  According to the MJO composites for March, these are still wet phases for Mammoth.  The pattern seems to become more progressive later next week with the break down of the block. It still looks like we will have the chance for another strong storm about mid week.  For what it is worth, both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks from the CPC are wet for Central CA.   In that the pattern goes into transition again next week, I will hold off on any serious outlook until later this week.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)