Brought to you by Howard Sheckter
Archive for February, 2019
Mammoth Mt Boasts biggest February on Record with up to 23 feet of New Snow…..Current storm total up to 7 feet with another 12 to 18 inches on the way…..
Saturday February 16, 2019
Sunday…the 17th,
The GFSX just finished running and not surprisingly it too has picked up on the retrogression of the eastern pacific ridge next weekend and the eventuality of the -EPO blocking pattern over Alaska. The resulting westerly flow undercuts the block and sets up a milder mid pacific storm track, compared to the more northerly track we have experienced the past several weeks. Modified Arctic air has been the theme with the dominate polar jet the past weeks…. That looks likely to change with more Maritime pacific air masses moving more zonally across the pacific. This too is potentially a wet pattern for the Sierra. Although we do not know, as it is too early, where the East Asian jet will set up over California, it potentially will bring a period of wet storms to California with a series of AR filaments brushing the golden state.
In the mean time for the upcoming week, it will be cold in the high country with inside slider systems bringing periods of snow showers with light amounts of snowfall through Thursday or Friday. Highs will remain below freezing low 20s, with lows single digits at 8000 feet.
The Dweeber……….:-)
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Sunday 6:00am. 5 day storm total on Mammoth Mt. 5 to 8 feet…. More to fall today… 3 to 6 inches
11:30pm
Just a quick look at the new 00z feb 17 euro this evening, shows a large positive upper height anomaly developing over Alaska in the EPO region days 8 9 10. A strong belt of lower to mid latitude westerlies is working its way east toward the central west coast. This would initiate a series of ARs with a mid latitude storm tract during the week 2 period. In that the EC is better at distance…The Dweebs will keep a wary eye on this trend. This has the support of the MJO.
BTW..it looks unlikely that the current typhoon over the west central pacific will have any affect on the westerlies…the tropical storm does get absorbed by the westerlies, however little if any amplification occurs…
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From Saturday AM;
Platinum Powder now falling over Mammoth Mt with about another 12 to 18 inches expected by Sunday evening…most of which will fall today as the last of the storms including Wednesday night and Thursdays AR, moves south and east. This month of February has been exceptional!
The hemispheric pattern has been exceptional as well with parts of the pattern acting more like La Niña with the negative PNA over the west while the equatorial pacific mimics El Niño…..quite the combination.
For the most part..the MJO has wagged the winter dog since December. I think that we are dealing with a Nino basin that is in a weak El Niño state while at the same time the atmospheric coupling has been greatly suppressed by some large-scale upper convergence…
Looking at the dynamic models…the MJO is progressing slowly east..so there is going to be a pattern change week 2. The MJO or ERW has already spawned a typhoon in the west-central pacific which depending upon its phasing with the westerlies, may throw a monkey wrench into the longer-range models for the last week of this month. I will also add, as In the previous discussion; where the MJO is located, it favors AR’s. If this MJO does not get off the dime soon, it is just a matter of time before the west coast gets hit with another AR. It is not being shown in the GFS week 2, but is gaining ensemble members in the European week 2 period with an awesome extension of the EAJ on this mornings 12Z run. On the contrary, the climate models as well as the GFS are not as yet picking it up. So confidence is low at this time.
In the meantime…it will be cold this week with periods of snow showers and below normal temps…great for carving turns on California’s premier ski mountain….the following weekend storm is in question again.
High temperatures will remain below freezing for the next 5 to 7 days.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………..:-)
Although the end in storms may be near….It is now unlikely through next weekend with more of the same headed our way…….MJO stuck in Phase 8….is another AR looming for week 2 or 3?
Friday February 15, 2019
Mammoth had a good old-fashioned blizzard today. Strong gusty winds, and white out conditions challenged the best of drivers. Although in the longer term, the american models (GFS) want to shift the big trof in the west to the east, (WEEK 2), The euro is stuck with its western trof and as long as the daily’s continue the trend of cold storms dropping out of the Northern Gulf of AK dragging down Arctic Air, will keep the status quote and call for more cold dry powder on the way. PS, if the MJO is stuck in phase 8 over the boiling convection over the central equatorial pacific, do not be surprised if another AR develops during week 2 or first week of March….because of phase 8-1…. Watch for the -EPO or -WPO…under cutting westerlies…
So far Mammoth pass has picked up about 5 inches of water. The upper mountain has picked up over 5 feet. Will update Saturday to see what the morning totals will be. Although storms total will not likely tally 10 feet on old Wooly….Amounts will challenge 7 or 8 feet by Monday AM at 6:00.
Monday and Tuesday look like the best Trans Sierra travel days, before another cold trof descends south down the coast Wednesday night and Thursday. Another system with better over water trajectory is in the cards for another Dump by Saturday or Sunday the following weekend….If you like fresh powder most days of next week….this is your weather pattern!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)
The End is Near!……That is the end of the Big February storms….Next week looks dry and cold……
Tuesday February 12, 2019
Wednesday Evening….
So Far about 8 inches of the wet stuff has fallen on the snow plott at the main lodge. With about 2.75 inches of water EQ. Pretty Wet!
As far as the storm….It has barely started! What we have had is warm air advection without any vertical motion to speak of. Tomorrow, the vertical motion in the atmosphere will begin, especially later in the morning….and watch what happens….It will be quite serious by about Lunch Time! Then heavy snow all afternoon with the first cold trof lifting the AR. Another colder trof comes in Friday morning for another big snow day!!
We still have some 7 to 8 inches of water to squeeze….
The Dweeber….
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Tuesday AM……can you smell the pineapples yet?
Latest guidance from the GFS shows some 9+ inches on the west side of South Central Sierra. So 8 to 9 feet probably at 10000 Feet, considering what snowfall ratios will be over all.
Updated.…California Rivers Forecast Center shows 9.02 inches at Huntington Lake, much of which falls within a 24 hours period. Blue Canyon over the Northern Sierra shows 9.06 inches storm total. So no real Bulls-eye from the southern sierra to the northern sierra.
From this morning, the WPC had updated their QPF to as high as 9 inches over the west side of our sierra. Our snow level on Wednesday will fluctuate between 7000 and 8000 feet. Any rain that falls in town, will be absorbed by the cold dry snowpack in place. In that the there is enough QPF over the weekend for Snow to Water ratios in the 12 to 13:1 range at the end of the storm….., odds are that this is going to be close to a 100 inch storm above 10,000 with a higher moisture content than the Feb 6th system. Well see what Mammoth Mt reports Monday AM for storm total.
Today is your last day to create more snow storage…..
Locals should have plenty of supplies on hand in the case of power outages. Bring enough dry wood in…in the case it rains.
Very strong winds from an angry upper jet is expected Thursday…..Again power outages are possible
Total snow fall from the storms by the end of the weekend over Mammoth Mountain is likely to tally in the 8 to 10 foot range. In town another 3 to 5 feet at 8000 feet is possible by Sunday night, as a colder storm is likely after the wet one.
Next week will be cold and much dryer…..and possibly continue dry through months end…
Dr Howard the the Dweebs..
