2:42 PM November the 11th…Longer Range Outlook.


The European model’s version of the MJO  is still not expecting a strong showing in Phase 8 (Western Hemisphere and Africa) and is very weak or non existent in the ensembles in phase 1 (Africa), which is the key for Central CA in the MJO precip composites. This is in direct contrast to the GFS, GEM and JAMSTIC with a much stronger showing of convection in those areas.  At this time I am not considering the strength of the MJO in the GFS, GEM or the Jamstc unless the Euro jumps on board at some point.  I like the Euro’s solution, and thus the odds of a deep long wave trof setting up off our coast in the next 3 weeks is not likely.  However, the ECMWF in its new weeklies package today, does show the mean ridge position retrograding in the 7 day meanst, while the upper flow de-amplifies. This occurs during the later part of week two.

This will bring about a positive change to the pattern. However, not one that is considered wet.  Rather, it will turn colder and unsettled with several waves of Low Pressure coming in from a NW direction; some splitting.  This usually brings showery weather with light amounts of snowfall to our area.  The Long range QPF amounts from the “European weekly model” shows between .50 to .75 range, beginning around the 24th through the 29th of November. That’s about 5 to 8 inches of snowfall, or maybe up to a foot over the crest. This is a much colder pattern than what we have been experiencing…..Again this is for the period beginning the 24th through the 29. Stay tuned……..

Caveat Emptor…. Remember, this is beyond the week two period…..  Over the Thanksgiving HOLIDAY.


I will update on the progress of the Euro next Friday……


CPC  tomorrow PM


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)




As well advertised, the upper west coast ridge will begin weakening mid week and allow considerable high clouds to invade our skies. Daytime Temperatures will cool some 10 degrees by Friday and the nights will cool as well but not to that extent.  There is likely to be some breeze but no winds to be concerned about at resort levels…..The extended shows 500mb heights (18000ft level) rebounding along with the freezing level by Sunday…  Highs in Mammoth are expected in the low 60s today and Tuesday with lows in the mid to upper 20s….  The extended or longer range shows further weakening of the west coast ridge the last week of the month for the best possible odds of the month for snowfall. However, it does not look like a pattern change that will bring large amounts of snowfall at this time. I will have an update on the longer range either Tomorrow or Wednesday….


Weather Extras;

During dry times like this, it is a good time for though’s interested in Meteorology to learn some of the important definitions of terms used in the science. The Dweebs will begin with the Jet stream as defined below.

Jet Stream;

The jet stream essentially represents a boundary between cold air to the north and warmer air to the south, which results in a horizontal pressure-gradient force that increases with altitude. The stronger the temperature gradient, the stronger the pressure gradient, and hence, the stronger the jet stream winds. Because the biggest difference in temperature between lower and higher latitudes occurs in winter, the jet stream is strongest during this season.

Of note, it is important to know that the Jet Stream does not mean precipitation for all areas. there are parts of the jet stream that mean different weather for specific areas in its proximity.


The Dweeber…………….:-)