This mornings weather pattern is highlighted by a long wave trof just off the west coast the first part of this week. The current system is highlighted by a significant upper low and cold pool off the Northern CA coast with 500MB heights of 545 centered just west of the OR/CA border at 12Z Monday. The leading edge of a large cold 1000-500 thickness pool extended from, a 546 dm iso line from Tahoe to the Bay area then west to 135W. This thickness pool has 1000-500MB thicknesses slightly below 540DM off shore, which will move into our area later this afternoon and overnight. 1000-500mb thicknesses as low as 541 DM by 06Z. is projected over night tonight. Thus the rainfall currently occurring in town will change to snowfall this afternoon and continue into tonight.  Snowfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible overnight . Upwards to a foot over the Mammoth Mt summit is expected.

Another note worth mentioning, this is cold core funnel season, (mid May into mid June).  Well see how the SPC looks tomorrow AM for that afternoon….


After a chilly Tuesday with highs in the low 40s,well below freezing temperatures will occur both Tuesday AM and Wednesday AM in town.  The upper low shifts east Tuesday night along with the long wave trof so that the next upstream system drops southeast into the Pacific NW and Northern Great Basin, then to the Northern Rockies. This is a dry pattern for Mammoth but the warm up expected Wednesday into the following Thursday will pause to allow the subject system to more well northeast of our area.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s Friday and Saturday and it may be a bit breezy; then rise some 5 to 10 degrees Sunday into Monday, Memorial Day.  (Mid 60s)


Long Range: Next Week

Long Range outlooks are always dicey this time of the year with so much changes in the models. However, as a hobbyist;  It is fun to try with best guesses.

So here goes


Both ECMWF and GFS has a ridge in the mean along the west coast providing an off shore flow and above normal temps along the coast. However, recently, operational model simulations have a cut off low that gets the boot into California next weekend as well. Both model simulations show this cut off low that develops in the subtropics off South Central Baja, this weekend,  that remains off shore next week, then again, gets the boot into the CA coast. The GFS has the trajectory so that light precip is projected  for extreme Northern Ca and the EC Southern Ca which would be a convective pattern for Mammoth..  Stay tuned!!!

More next week…..


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)