1-22-2021 Update

Models trending a bit wetter for the first system.  It is not wet by any means but my get a few more inches of snow out of it.

Here are the Dweebs best guesses….

Friday night into Saturday, 1 to 3 inches in town, 3 to 6 on the mountain by Saturday PM

Sunday night into Monday night looks like a moderate storm with 3 to 6 in town and 6 to 12 on the mountain.

The Tuesday night through Thursday storm is the “Mother Lode” with 2 to 3 feet in town and 3 to 5 feet on the mountain beginning Tuesday night next week into Friday AM.  .  Another storm is in the Cards for Sunday now.  Total preliminary QPF for snowfall through the end of the month IE the morning of Feb1st is between “6 to 10 feet” on Mammoth Mt.

Remember this is preliminary………. BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING…..;-)


Although there is no tropical forcing from the MJO this go around, Mid and Upper Latitude forcing promisses to bring light snowfall amounts from the first system, Moderate snowfall from the second and even Mod to Heavy amounts from the mid week system expected later Wednesday into Frid…Next week. The QPFs from both GFS and ECMWF are simular showing snowfall of 1 to 3 inches .(30) Friday Night into Saturday, then about an 1.00 inch for the Sunday Night through Tueday AM period.  (That system for early next week is very cold and showery) There will be high snow to water ratios and the potential for 10 to 15 inches over the upper elevations…. 5 to 10 inches in town. S/W ratio (15:1)  The mid week system is a horse of a different color with model simulations trending wetter now. I will focus more on the mid week system this weekend……Hope it continues to show up in the medium range for next week.

More storms are possible through the end of the month, however, the Euro-Model cuts it off after the end of January while the GFS keeps the hits right on coming into the first week of February. ( I have to say that personally……It is unnerving to see a pattern like this not supported by MJO forcing).   So lets hope it works out!


I will update in the AM……………….



The Dweeber………………:-)