Archive for November, 2021

Stagnant weather Pattern to Continue through weeks end with mild days and cool nights….Ensemble members for following week show increasing confidence for more active pattern developing toward the end of week 2

12/02/2021-6:00PM

All systems go for nice transition next week to cooler and at times, showery weather. Even the CPC included it in their outlook. It will be cold enough for snowmaking by Tuesday, and beyond. As mentioned earlier, the pattern is going into transition with retrogression of the long wave features. IE we get rid of our long wave ridge in time. So the eastern pacific high redevelops further west over the next 1 to 2 weeks. Breezy cooler WX with the chance of some showers Monday night and Tuesday. Then stronger winds developing later Wednesday into Friday AM,  turning colder yet with a period of light snow.  The period of the 14th through the 17th is still mixed at this time with unsettled weather meaning snowfall. Don’t ask how much as no one knows yet. The Euro is not as exciting as the GFS. But that is a long way out and just about anything good can happen!  Its painful to have to wait that long! 🙄

 

The Dweeber…………..:-)

 

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Of Note; Bishop had a high of 74 degrees yesterday. However, the record was 80 set back in 1909. Todays record high is 72 set back in 2008,  so previous record high now in jeopardy. Expect more of the same this week with highs in Bishop in the low to mid 70s while at resort levels in the low 60s. The Sun sets at 4:45 PM today. As a note, the end of the 1st week of December is the week of the earliest sunsets of the year…..Not during the Solstice.

Again the weather is very quiet. not much breeze. Nights near freezing and the days in the low 60s.  Of interest, the daytime highs are normally reached between 12:30PM and 1:00PM vs Summer when highs are reached between 1:30PM and 2:30PM.

Now the Outlook;

The good news; there are an increasing number of ensemble members of the GFS that are showing a deepening Long Wave trough into the Intermountain west, then retrograding westward. This means that cooler then colder weather is progged to develop in the beginning of this change, next week. The WX charts show retrogression of the long wave in the 5 day means to a point where the storms will come in from the pacific, rather than drop in as an insider slider like in the beginning. The former brings colder weather, the further progs suggest better odds for significant snowfall toward the end of the transition.  Additionally, all global ensemble models forecast the Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) to become negative, as as a result, the the upper ridge that has been blocking storms in the PNA region disappears. (see graphics below)

The main point at this time is that the Dweebs want to make it clear that we should look at all this with cautious optimism. These are outlooks and not actual forecasts because of their distance in time.

 

 

Another Dry Week ahead with unseasonably mild temperatures…..Pattern change later next week…..

The forecast this week is more of the same. Clear Skys..   Strong temperature inversions. Highs at 8000 in the low 60s and lows in the low 30s. Light winds out of the north.   Longer range shows slow height falls early next week with a gradual cooling trend.  Strong height falls are expected the following week with the possibility of a storm, beginning around the 9th or 10th of December through the 15th.

Thankgiving holiday forecast continues the trend of dry weather with Seasonal Temperatures….It will be warmer this holiday weekend with a bit cooler weather the second half of next week…..

 

From 11-22-2021

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Of course just about everyone wants to know when it will snow. And although there are not any absolutes, there are some important changes in the hemispheric pattern worth giving consideration. The process of touting a storm at distance has to do with confidence in the long range progs.  That confidence either increases or decreases with the number of forecast progs “operational model runs” of the coming days within a period of time.  These charts collectively are called ensembles. They are processed by forecaster in several ways.  Only when there is enough consistency at distance, not only in any particular model collectively, to other models, does forecasters confidence run high; especially within the 7 day period leading up to an event. At this time, the current time period of consideration seems to be the next weekend or the second week of December. At the moment there is only about 20 percent of the ensemble’s that are bullish on a storm toward the end of the first week of December. However, what is more important I believe is a change of pattern consistent in most models, both weakening and progression of the Greenland Block about next weekend. Hypothetically, that should set the stage for the following week for a storm during the 2nd week of December.

 

In the meantime, its cold in Mammoth today with highs in the lows 40s today with about 10 degrees of warming Thanksgiving and another 3 to 5 degrees of warming by the weekend. Highs this weekend are expected near 60 degrees with lows in the 20s to lower 30s.  The current NE breezes will lessen by Friday, then will be absent this weekend,

Next week will begin mild, with between 5 to 10 degrees of cooling during the 2nd half of next week.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)