From 11-22-2021


Of course just about everyone wants to know when it will snow. And although there are not any absolutes, there are some important changes in the hemispheric pattern worth giving consideration. The process of touting a storm at distance has to do with confidence in the long range progs.  That confidence either increases or decreases with the number of forecast progs “operational model runs” of the coming days within a period of time.  These charts collectively are called ensembles. They are processed by forecaster in several ways.  Only when there is enough consistency at distance, not only in any particular model collectively, to other models, does forecasters confidence run high; especially within the 7 day period leading up to an event. At this time, the current time period of consideration seems to be the next weekend or the second week of December. At the moment there is only about 20 percent of the ensemble’s that are bullish on a storm toward the end of the first week of December. However, what is more important I believe is a change of pattern consistent in most models, both weakening and progression of the Greenland Block about next weekend. Hypothetically, that should set the stage for the following week for a storm during the 2nd week of December.


In the meantime, its cold in Mammoth today with highs in the lows 40s today with about 10 degrees of warming Thanksgiving and another 3 to 5 degrees of warming by the weekend. Highs this weekend are expected near 60 degrees with lows in the 20s to lower 30s.  The current NE breezes will lessen by Friday, then will be absent this weekend,

Next week will begin mild, with between 5 to 10 degrees of cooling during the 2nd half of next week.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)