So the long awaited Active Pattern is shaping up nicely.  Upper high in the right position feeding short waves via AK south east into long wave trof.  The combo of the Thursday storm and the Sunday night through Tuesday night may dump some 6 feet of snow on the upper mountain. Amounts forecasted will adjust over the next few days so stay tuned as there is an decent, categorically weak AR with it and so amounts can change up or down.

The main point here is that the long wave appears to be locked in for a few weeks. Shure glad I was not one of those dry foot long range forecasters touting doom and gloom! Last month I shared a scientific paper about La Niña, and the negative phase of the QBO. One of the points in the research paper was that there was a stronger correlation for the MJO to continue east, past that LA Nina area of upper convergence into the central pacific, Phases 7/8. More frequent strato warms too.  Last winter the MJO ran out of gas over the western pacific. What the current forecast suggests is that it will remain strong into phase 8.  The results deepen the PV over NE Asia and pump the central pacific ridge to kingdom come. Eventually cutting off the high with the potential of a southern stream jet into CA later this month. This suggests; 1st a lot of snowfall for the Sierra up to about The 22nd.  Then if the MJO actually makes it strong into phase 8, the “the potential of a very significant AR for a part of CA.  This is a teleconnection, not a forecast so just sit back and enjoy the big snow producing storms for the next 6 to 10 days. By the time we get to week 2 the models will let us know if a large AR is in the offering……. California needs the water so let’s hope we get lots. Just hope it does not turn to rain…..


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………:-)