Archive for September, 2022

Record Extra Tropical Cyclone near the Aleutians to Pump up large ridge into the GOA and in turn…Sets up major Storm for CA… Weeks end into the next week.

9-18-2022 Update

This mornings model runs are continuing the recent trends of strengthening the blocking high over Texas. Thus it is less likely now that this weather system will do much in the form of precipitation for the Eastern Sierra of Mono County. RFC this morning definitely shows most significant accumulations over the coastal plane and foothills of Northern CA.

The Yosemite point forecast shows .30 total between Monday and Wednesday, when just two days ago the forecast was for over an inch. Huntington Lake forecast shows only .07 total through Wednesday.  Thus, QPF amounts will be light over the crest and even less a mile or two east, Expect a 30% chance of showers now for the resort levels, with best chance of showers late Tuesday and Wednesday.. An inch or two of snow above 10000 feet is still possible over the crest by Wednesday AM.

Outlook:

Height rises develop Thursday and continue through the last weekend of September. Temperatures rise into the low 70s next weekend for Mammoth and low 90s for Bishop.

Lows in Mammoth now in the 30s with 40s in Bishop and Mammoth over the weekend.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)

 

9/16/2022 Update

Latest 06Z and 12Z Runs show the storm developing off shore, but slowing down.  The Question this AM is its timing, as the longer it takes to come through the weaker it will be.  Latest RFC QPF for Yosemite is 1.07 this Morning.   However, amounts drop off pretty quickly th e further east you go.  So some back peddling is in order for snowfall amounts over the sierra crest do to the systems slowing. Also being considered is how warm the ground is, even above 10,000 this time of year. No doubt there is going to be accumulations over the crest, but need another day or so to resolve. High temps currently in the mid 60s will cool to the 50s by Sunday and low 50s Monday with the first below freezing temps at resort levels showing up over the next few days.

 

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What does the strongest Extra Tropical Storm for September headed toward the Aleutians have in common with west coast weather?

The deepest Storm ever recorded “for the month of September” is bombing out the next 24 hours as it heads for the Bering Sea…..939MB at the surface. This system was a typhoon, now gone extra tropical, meaning that it once had a warm core, that now has a cold core. Nevertheless, Cat 2 or 3 TS like winds are possible tomorrow AM Near Alaska as the storm skirts north of the Aleutians, headed to the Bearing Straights’.

That record deep surface low for September, will pump up a full latitude ridge into the Gulf of AK and in turn, deepen a major storm into central and Northern California Sunday into Tuesday next week.  This storm has the potential to bring over a foot of Snow over the crest above 9500 to 10000 feet Monday into Tuesday.  Additionally, the storm will really help firefighters Sunday into Monday, as solid rains will help to dampen the Mosquito fire near Lake Tahoe.

The Screaming Message is that if your going into the Back Country or are already there, be sure you have the right gear to weather a formable storm, beginning the end of this week into the next.

The Dweeber……………..:-)

Weak upper jet continues the trend of drying here in Mono County today with a stronger trof moving in later this weekend…… a little Light snowfall is possible Monday night into Wednesday…..Fair warm dry weekend to follow

Most of the moisture is gone now from the tropical influx of last week. Outside of a few remaining isolated showers today and tomorrow, temperatures will now be seasonal to a bit cooler than normal. Breezy weather to develop Saturday into Sunday as the Equinox Trof arrives Sunday into Wednesday next week. Some light snowfall is possible over the higher elevations next Monday night into Tuesday night next week. This will be associated with some pretty chilly temperature’s Sunday into Tuesday. 50s for highs and 20s and 30s lows.

Oktoberfest weekend the following weekend looks warm and fair under ridging…

Fall Equinox is the 22nd at 6:04 PM

PS  Just looked at the ECMWF Seasonal Outlook for Mammoth.   A wet November, to be followed by normal to above normal precipitation in December.   for 2023, Dryer than normal January, followed by normal to above normal precipitation for February and March.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)

Heat Wave Breaks as Tropical Rains this Weekend followed by Fall Weather later Next Week…

9-11-2022 Update

Yesterdays rainfall in the Mono County that began mid afternoon into the evening averaged between .25 and .50 with some amounts in isolated areas of over an inch. There were two areas noted for stronger storms. For Mono County was the area around Mono Lake. For the Inyo country area, Between Big Pine and Coso Junction west over the Sierra where stronger storms occurred over the elevated heat source of the Sierra.

This mornings WX 500MB maps still show the upper circulation of the remains of Kate west of Ensenada with the area near Oxnard in the favored NE Quad of Upper divergence and on going showers.  PWATS still in excess of 1.75 inch along the South Bay this AM. 250MB upper divergence maps have a few noted areas of upper divergence as well in those areas. (SPC)

As the Suns daytime heating resumes Sunday, Couplets are likely to develop in this NE quad. Included, along the San Gabriel Traverse range West Northward, thunderstorms are likely this afternoon. Although the remains of Kate will remain off the coast another day or two, and her residual moisture as well over Southern and Central CA, a westerly upper jet will approach Tuesday into Wednesday, providing both drying and cooling to the state mid week.  This will set the stage for a fair weather period with below normal temps toward weeks end.   Further cooling is indicated in the both 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day NWS outlooks. This will be a dry pattern.

Longer range from CVS v2 indicates warm dry weather after the 25th through the last week of Sept and 1st week of Oct.

PS, there is still an inside slider type trof dropping in around the Equinox that may bring a few upslope snow showers around that time.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)

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As crazy as the weather has been with the heat, then rain, then cooler weather next week, the change coming up in the models later next week and beyond is just as crazy. This is because we are going to shift very quickly into a Fall pattern with even the chance of light snow around the equinox….. Oktoberfest, Lederhosen and Down Vests to prost with?

 

From KLOX early this afternoon….

TS Kay is now 240 miles south of KLAX and moving northwest at around 11kt according to the most recent update from the NHC. Models have generally trimmed back the rainfall forecast locally, though with PW’s still expected to be around 2.4″ and some other
indicators like the Extreme Forecast Index showing a heightened potential for heavy rain, so will stay the course for now with regard to rainfall amounts and the Flash Flood Watch. Still not seeing any lightning but the convective parameters are at least
marginally favorable for convection, mainly tonight and not so much Saturday.

 

More on the storms effects for Mammoth on Saturday…..

 

PS, if you follow the Old Farmers Almanac,  pick up a copy or online version for the Winter of 22/23. According to it, the Southern and Central Sierra is going to have a very big winter with lots of snow.  Usually that almanac talks from both sides of their mouths.   However, this time their really going for it!

Personally I just find it amusing and fun to read.  I for one am not a believer. 😉

 

The Dweeber