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Archive for September, 2022
Hot Hot California in process with Tropical Storm lurking for next weekend for some rain and relief!
Saturday September 3, 2022
The on again off again and now on again threat for areas of significant rain in CA next weekend is in play. An accumulation of ensemble members are becoming for numerous for for just that option. In the meantime, hope must folks can get relief for the heat. Best places are at the immediate coast and in the upper elevation of the Mountains like Mammoth. Most other areas are in the upper 90s and 100s.
It was a 107 in Bishop Friday. More 105 to 108 temps seem likely through next Thursday. Thus more high temperature records on the way as very strong for September, Dome of High Pressure is locked in the next 5 days. Heights at 500MB as high as 600DM forecasted for this Tuesday-Wednesday over Utah and NV which may be the warmest days!! 597DM isoheights at 500MB all the way west to the Mojave Desert!
If this heat caused by the dome of high pressure remains strong and locked in over the west. The tropical system now forming off the coast of southern Mexico, becoming a hurricane by this Tuesday or Wednesday, off Baja will stay west enough to develop a South or Southwest upper jet, providing the lift for the moisture that would invade the state of CA. Timing….beginning about Friday or Saturday next week. This is likely to be followed by a major change in the pattern to one of windy and cooler weather with the chance of showers around the 15th or so..
The Dweeber………..
The Late Summer Heatwave of 2022 is in process over the state with hundreds of records expected to be broken….Models have backed off on on any significant rain chances for next week….
Thursday September 1, 2022
12z NAM 500MB Heights early this morning had the center of a developing continental high between Mammoth and Stockton with the Progg shifting the upper center over Eastern NV later today. Heights continue to rise as do surface temps. By around noon Friday, the center is near the NV/Utah border with 500mb heights well in excess of 594 DM. A short wave Trof pushes into Northern Ca and OR Friday night bringing a bit more Zephier to Mammoth in the late afternoon and evening. However, this feature actually build 500MB heights higher in excess of 597DM Saturday over Western Utah, then shifts it west to our Eastern CA Mono County by Late Sunday Afternoon. As an average, the upper anticyclone is mostly over NV, thus acting as a shunt from allowing the southerly flow of deep moisture from reaching the sierra. Thus the dry weather is likely to continue for quite a while.
Expect Highs in Mammoth in the mid 80s this weekend though Labor Day, lows in the low 60s. Expect Zephier winds between 10 to 20MPH each late afternoon and evening….
The longer range for the following weekend is questionable as the models differ on how quickly the pattern actually breaks down. Latest is that the GFS has a cool Trof pushing in to the Pacific NW next Wednesday increasing Zephier winds in the high country and bringing the beginnings of a significant cool down, during the second half of next week.
Stay Tuned…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)
