This mornings global model runs show some interesting changes for the first half of the month of February.  Here is what the Dweebs see.

  1. At this time, the Hudson Bay Low (Canadian Polar Vortex) has become very strong and deep. It is tied in with the strong, highly amplified ridge over the Eastern Pacific. This pattern is very common during La Nina winters where-by it is colder than normal in the west and central and at times eastern portions of the US. This pattern is a blocky pattern over the Eastern Pacific keeping out any big storms from affecting the central west coast. The system for Sunday into early Monday is classic!  Cold system with light snowfall and upslope as well.
  2. So here is the upshot of this AMs post in getting all the ducks lined up again!
  3. The Hudson Bay Vortex is forecasted to begin progressing east, just before Ground Hogs Day Thursday.  The Dweeb’s are not sure why as the Eastern Pacific upper block actually starts to break down 1st over the Eastern Pacific, this upcoming Monday.  This eastward shift of the Vortex opens the wave length between the eastward shifted Vortex near Newfoundland and the retrograding high over the Central Pacific.
  4. Additionally, the Atlantic Ridge, east of Iceland is beneficially located. This positive height anomaly is also suggestive of a pattern that is progressive as well.
  5. The next storm track does not appear to have any significant AR’s associated with it. These look to be mainly light to at times moderate snow producing storms for Mammoth. Some storms will be very cold! (Lots of cold powder)
  6. More Later…..

Preliminary snowy dates “subject to change“;  Feb 3rd; 5th and 9th.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)



After an El Nino like pattern in December and January, the Northern Hemispheric Pattern has once again shifted back to La Nina. After a shot of cold water emerged over the Central Pacific due to enhanced trades, this has had the affect of returning our pattern to one of colder than normal with drier than normal conditions for California.

According to the Climatic Prediction Center, A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is anticipated during the February-April 2023 season. By the Northern Hemisphere Spring (March-May 2023), the chance for ENSO-neutral is 82%.

So might this resurgence of La Nina and its associated pattern be the last?   Will See!

Weekend storm:

For the past 24 to 36 hours, the global models have been back peddling on the precipitation forecast for Mammoth Lakes and Mammoth Mt.  Here is the latest 12z/4:00AM updates.

The main differences between the GFS and European models is this;

The Euro is just slightly slower and colder than the GFS and has a little more snowfall for our area.  And….The upper low has no over water trajectory now, and the upper jet is off shore, and more NW oriented.

Both models agree that this system is much drier now with snowfall amounts for Mono County in the 1 to 6 inches range by Late Sunday night. 700MB temps go down to -16C Monday AM. That’s 3 degrees F at 10,000 feet Monday AM in Mammoth, free air conditions.

With Inversions setting in quickly Monday into Tuesday, Bridgeport Valley may go -25F Tuesday AM. Freezing Fogs to return next week for Lee Vining as well.

Longer Range:

We will continue with a hemispheric pattern associated with La Nina. Weather systems seem to be pretty tame through mid month. There is a small system on the 3rd and another small system on the 9th. Both are in the 1 inch to as much as 6 inches category.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………..:-)