Brought to you by Howard Sheckter
Archive for January, 2023
January to finish on a dry note with little or no precipitation….February to begin the same way with storminess developing during its first week…..
Monday January 23, 2023
Cold Cold Cold! That’s the way today will be. A cold Great Basin slider moved through yesterday and is now located over Southern Arizona. Gusty NE winds will continue today over the upper elevations of Mammoth Mt with somewhat lighter winds over the lower slopes. No matter where you ski or board today in the upper elevation’s, there will be dangerous Wind Chill factors. So….If your skiing or boarding today, wear face protection!
Winds Chills over upper elevation will be -25F to -35F degrees! Tomorrow will be a milder day, less wind, with highs about 10 degrees warmer. Expect upper 30s Tuesday, Wed and Thursday with 40s! on Friday.
The Weather Pattern this week will be highlighted by the Eastern Pacific High near the west coast. This upper air anomaly will block all pacific storms from California and thus a dry week. As we go into the first week of February, there are some signs that this upper air high pressure system will weaken and retrograde west. So there is a potential storm, sometime during that first week of February. Powder lovers…Stay tuned!
At this time, no Atmospheric Rivers are in the Forecast or Outlooks!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)
Cold to continue through mid week next week before some relief comes toward that following weekend…Many below zero temperatures expected during the early morning….Highs mostly in the 20s to low 30s….Next Storm Cycle to begin about months end through first week of February….
Friday January 20, 2023
1-21-2023
Recent posting from Snow Brains…..
Its official! Mammoth Mt reported last Tuesday;
Mammoth Mt has the deepest snowpack in North America!
The upper mountain measured recently, is sitting at 504 inches! (42 feet!) Lower Mt has 378 inches. (31.5 feet)
This is the most snow so early in the season. However, has a way to go to equal winters like 2011, 2017 and 1983.
A note from the Dweeber…
The difference between the 504 inches and 378 is 25% This difference in snowfall for the most part is not because water content. Many of these storms had AR’s associated with them. Freezing levels were higher than normal. During AR’s, often times above 9,000 feet. So in many cases while the top was at say 28F, the Main Lodge may have been at 32 degrees, thus Snow to Water Ratio’s were significantly lower at the Main Lodge.
Today’s weather is simply beautiful! Light winds over most of the mountain with *moderate winds over the crest. (*15 to 30mph)
Winds will pick up tonight into Sunday as another cold Great Basin slider moves south. There may be a few flurries Sunday night.
Today Saturday, will warm to near 40 in town while nighttime lows will average some 18 degrees milder. (Low 20s)
The San Gabriel Valley in So Cal may have a wind event Sunday night into Monday. Strong Santa Ana!
Temperatures on Sunday will be in the mid 30s Sunday in town and 20s on Mammoth Mt Sunday with wind.
After the system leaves our area Sunday Night into Monday, High temperatures will return to the 20s in town and teens on Mammoth Mt. Lows at night will drop to the single digits Monday AM while Bridgeport sees lows -15 to -18F. Milder weather returns by Mid week next week with highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows in the teens…
It looks dry through next Friday! 🙂
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Our weather is likely to continue chilly to cold into early next week. High temperatures will vary from the 20s today to as warm as 40 Saturday, then upper 30s Sunday and 20s again Monday. Lows at night will range from the single digits to teens in town. There is a cold short wave that will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air Monday and be preceded by breezy weather in town Sunday and windy on the mountain. Winds will diminish Monday the 23rd.
The eastern pacific high will remain fairly close to the west coast Mid-Week so it will be a dry week with highs in the 30s. Next weekend will begin the change in pattern that will eventually result in more snowfall here in the high country. Because of such differences in the global models, it would be unwise at this time, to speculate on what’s coming pattern wise. With the two most popular models, one has a mid latitude storm track while the other is slower in its development and touts more of a storm track out of the Eastern GOA.
By the middle of the next week, better consensus should occur.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)
Colder Weather with drier than normal conditions will be the rule through the 27th…Retrogression in the long wave pattern still favors more snowfall first week of February….
Tuesday January 17, 2023
North West Slider to drop another 3 to 5 inches Wednesday night and another 2 inches Thursday
Snow to water ratios will be 15:1 or greater so “Platinum Powder” snow>>>>Then fair dry weekend into next week…
With the exit of the Trof that brought wind, moderate snowfall Sunday night into Monday AM, much improved weather will highlight our resort the next 8 to 14 days. Our hemispheric pattern is showing up more La Nina like as it should. With the Long Wave Trof developing over the Inter Mountain West while the mean ridge position is some 700 -1000 miles west of the Sierra off shore. Expect mainly inside sliders type systems. These will dominate our weather, bringing small shots of powdery snowfall and much colder weather. High temperatures will be mainly in the 20s now for Mammoth this week with nights in the Single Digit’s or possibly below zero Thursday morning. Thursday AM will be particularly cold for Mono County’s high elevations valleys. Places like Bridgeport and Long Valley may go -20F to -30F that morning!
Tropical Forcing:
The CPC this morning made a point to say that the MJO is Destructively Interfering with La Nina. At the same time, the scientists are saying that sub surface cooling is occurring over the equatorial central pacific, which may delay ENSO neutral conditions to develop this spring.
The pattern we just came through was more akin to EL Nino forced west coast weather. So far, climatologist’s have not come up with an agreed upon answer.
A return to more La Nina like forcing is what is expected through Months End. So it looks fairly dry with only few small cold systems.
The climatic prediction center also indicated its week 3 outlook is for retrogression of the Eastern Pacific high, back toward the Central Pacific. This retrogression may begin the end of January, and complete during the first week of February. Rain and snow should return to California during the first week of February. This pattern is not expected to be a return to what we just went through with several AR’s Rather, a more typical return to mid winter’s La Nina pattern, with cold storms and the focus of the most anomalous precipitation back over the Pacific Northwest.
BTW; Mammoth Mt has indicated that the season total at the Main lodge is now 378 inches. What a difference a year makes!
More Later….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)
