Saturday Morning 10/20

Only changes in forecast revel that there will be less cloudiness for the Sierra for Sunday night through Monday night. Still…. There is a slight chance of showers from the weak low off the South Central CA coast. Temperatures may be a few degree cooler Monday through Tuesday. The belt of westerlies expected for next week are trending further north now. Even Northern CA may not have that much in the way of precip from the Wednesday and Thursday system. This is because of a strong Subtropical Ridge that will be building toward the Central West Coast. This ridge will dominate our weather next week through months end. High temps may actually reach near 70 next weekend.

ECMWF Climate Model Outlook: (Subject to change)
The next storm capable of some snowfall will be on the 12th of November.
The following system is expected on November 19th. That system according to the EC looks much stronger.
Note: Climate Model Outlooks are much subject to change and are not nearly as accurate as 3 to 5 day forecasts.

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A REX block over the west coast will dominate the weather through the weekend as high pressure over the Pacific NW is coupled with low pressure off the Southern CA Coast. This is a similar pattern of which brought thunderstorms to Southern CA last Saturday, except this time, the Low is not nearly as deep.

There is a belt of westerlies approaching the Pacific NW early next week that will move the R-Block along to the east. Through the process, the low off the SC coast will open into a Trof and allow a SSE flow to push some moisture and instability northward. This pattern may also allow some Thunderstorms to form over parts of the Owners Valley Sunday and there is a slight chance of some light rain or rain showers over Mono County. The snow level will be high if we get anything at all.  Thereafter, the westerlies will drive into the pacific NW bringing wet conditions with its AR.

To the south over Mono County, just wind and high clouds are possible Wednesday and Thursday;  possibly Wave Clouds for you photographer’s. Any precipitation appears to be over Northern CA at the moment, north of Highway 80.  There will be little change in temperatures the next several days with highs in Mammoth Lakes between 55 and 60, with lows in the mid 20s over the lower elevations of town and low to mid 30s at and above 8000 to 8500 feet.

A subtropical ridge is progged by several models to build into California over the following week ending the month of October on a dry note, although the climate models show possible precip during the first week of Nov…

 

El Nino:

The El Nino Basin is warming now….  There is still conjuncture whether it is a true Modoki type. Looking at the Nino Region’s 4, east to Nino 1+2 there is not a big difference in the forecasted SSTA’s in regions Nino 4 to Nino 3 but much cooler in Nino’s 1 and 2.  Thus, this is not a true Modoki from what I know and see. This will make the seasonal forecast for the rainy season more difficult for the Central Sierra, as it is likley more or less, to turn wet in January and especially February for Southern CA.   Additionally, there is a significant Blob of warm SSTs in the Gulf of AK and the Bering Sea.  However, it is not snuggled off the BC coast like in 2014.  This means that the Ridge will be parked a bit to the west of those years.  At the moment, there is likley to not be much if any influence upon our weather from El Nino for the remainder of this year. This El Nino appears to be a late Bloomer.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)