Brought to you by Howard Sheckter
Storm system winds down with snow showers today and partly cloudy Sky’s the next few days….Next storm becomes stationary Saturday night into next week with moderate amounts of Snowfall expected……The Week 2 Outlook still shows the East Asian Jet Progged to reach California the following weekend….
Wednesday March 1, 2023
>3/2/2023
Apparently, the (CPC) “Climatic Prediction Center” is “going for it” in their discussion today in regards to a pattern that can extend an “AR/Rs” to CA. I will wait a few more days to see if the European deterministic runs show the same.
Read Below:
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 08 – 12 2023 Ensemble means from the 0z GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian continue to depict troughing overspreading much of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) during the 6-10 day period. Of note is that the deterministic solutions from the 00z GFS and ECMWF depict ridging building over the eastern CONUS, and are out of phase with the ensembles. Given the high latitude blocking and negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation forecast to be in place, along with a strong Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal over the Western Hemisphere, the ensemble solutions remain preferred in today’s outlook. Today’s manual 500-hPa height blend for the 6-10 day period depicts below normal heights across most of the CONUS, with the exception of Florida and the Gulf of Mexico Coast where near normal heights are predicted. Positive height anomalies are indicated across Alaska underneath anomalous ridging over the North Pacific.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Mammoth Mt has had an impressive amount of snowfall this past Winter. As of today, the last storm dropped another 5.5 feet of fresh snow and snow totals now range from 56 feet at the top to 44 feet at the Main Lodge. In that there has not been a lot of snow melt this season, the snowpack is nothing short of astounding.
DWP just came out with their updated water survey showing Mammoth Pass now has 68.8 inches of water and is 168% of normal for this entire winter! Of course this does not include what fell last night and this AM.
Our hemispheric pattern is going into transition. The RMM phase space is showing an MJO strengthening as it moves into Phase 7 over the Western Pacific. Look at the Phase Space diagram below and see how strong it gets as it moves through Phase 7/8 . This has the affect of modulating the westerlies and can extend the East Asian Jet to the west coast. (Amplification then Retrogression) Many of our Pineapple and Mid Latitude AR’s are forced by this phenomenon during the Winter. There is no question, that the EAJ will extend toward the west coast now. However, there are a lot of questions about how that change to the pattern will effect California. As mentioned last post, it is too soon for a real forecast. However, as an outlook, since the potential event’s beginning, is some 8 days away, we can look at several possibilities through the week two period to make some guess on what may occur. The event could last a week or more and often ends with a dry period and milder temperatures.
Again it is too soon for a Bonafede Forecast, and here are some of the latest longer range possibilities.
The week two Global Ensembles are coming this afternoon, which will add of detract to the CFS forecast below.
Please view these “with interest” and not a forecast. By the end of this week, there should be better confidence in what will occur later the following week.
At this time, the silver lining is that this does not look like a warm event. Look at the graphic’s following as an example.
As you can see directly above, no agreement yet for an AR
