Weather Pattern has become Decisively Cooler and at times wetter through Months End……La Nina is offically Dead according to the CPC

The Trend is a Weatherman’s Friend and model trends point toward a cooler period over the next few weeks.  All models in agreememt in moving the current upper low out of California this Evening while a rather cool airmass keeps unstable air over our area through Monday.  Expect both highs and Lows to remain below normal, in the 50s, with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms over the High Sierra into Monday.

Within the medium range, a belt of westerlies approaches the Pacific Northwest and buckels south Wednesday, causing increasing winds in the high country. By Thursday afternoon there is an increasing chance of showers into the night. As is the case this time of the year, upper trofs like to become cut-off,  and next weekends long range outlook for the far west will be no exception. This leaves Mammoth Lakes in a cool showery pattern .

Appearently, there are a series of these short wave Trofs dropping in from the GOA that will bring periods of unsettleled weather to the Sierra, possibly through months end. Stay tuned as there will be breaks in between systems. Memorial Weaked is too far to speculate on. However, the pattern seems to want to continue in this fashion.

High temperatures will swing as much as 20 degrees the next 7 days with lows mostly in the upper 20s and 30s.

 

Climate:

 

The Climatic Predction Center has offically called La Nina Dead. Let hope it stays that way.  We need ENSO to allow the MJO to strongly circumnavigate the globe, for periods of big weather next winter!!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………:-)

Warmer Days through Friday with Unsettled Weekend followed by warm dry weather early next week….

The Weather pattern across the CONUS and off into the Atlantic will become more progressive toward the weekend. Initially, there is a decently amped ridge that is spreading over CA at the moment. It will result in some 7 to 10 degrees of warming through Friday. High Temps in Mammoth have been in the low to mid 60s of late. Upper 60s is expected today with low 70s Wednesday through Friday. Lows at night will be mostly in the 30s.

The upper 500mb Ridge that is building in, will succumb to flattening early in the weekend due to the aforementioned Progressiveness of the pattern down stream. This will allow some short wave energy, however weak, to drop south over Western CA to a position Just WSW of Mammoth Lakes by Saturday afternoon.  Even trough there is little cooling with this system, The very strong daytime heating of a sun angle much like very early August, will initiate daytime convection, and combined with weak upper divergence to pop some showers and thunderstorms, mainly Saturday afternoon with a slight chance on Sunday afternoon.  The weak upper low will exit through AZ Sunday night leaving a Sunny and warmer day for Monday.

 

The Models are mixed on the weather the 2nd half of next week.  The GFS has troughy possibly unsettled weather and the EC nicer weather. Will update next week.

 

Note for Southern CA weather on a climate scale:  The remains of La Nina will be felt over the Southern California Beaches for sometime. Later this Spring and Summer will offer more June Gloom days than normal, as the Sea Surface temperature’s remain anomalously cold.

Once the CA deserts turn hot, expect a much longer period of June Gloom,  well into Summer until the waters off the coastal sections warm up.

Typical May weather on Tap with periods of Warming and Cooling into next week….

Looking at todays 12Z ECMWF day 5 means, it is apparent that although no significant storms are in the picture. There will be additional short wave Trofs that will deepen over the Northern Great Basin, producing a few showers during periods of daytime heating, into early next week. Warmer weather is expect the middle of next week before another round of cooing arrives later in the week. Temperatures through the period will average above normal this mid week then near normal into the weekend and early next week. No major Hard Freezes are expected anytime soon.

As mentioned before, the Dweebs are expecting a warmer then normal July with more Thunderstorms than last Summer. ENSO is behaving in a way that suggests; 1. No El Nino  over the next 6 months. 2. Enso Neutral conditions this Summer; 3. Possible Weak La Nina conditions next Fall.

Comment; Often times a very week La Nina is good sign for a stormy winter here in Mammoth, as the MJO can remain active as it is able to circumnavigate the globe, via the Equator.

Latest Discussion from The Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion indicates that the MJO will remain especially strong moving off the coast of Africa with (Week 1) favoring a -PNA over the far west. Thus more  episode’s of breezy or windy weather can be expected to return in the high country. This time of the Year, areas of convection along areas of surface convergence is more likely well over Nevada. Better definitive forecasts when we get closer in that time time.

Later Week 2, has MJO moving is projected to the Maritime Continent and eventually Western Pacific again with hot weather likely the result, returning to California later in the month.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)