Beautiful Thanksgiving Holiday in the making with upper ridge over the state for seasonal to above seasonal temps….Colder pattern taking shape early next week with first system NW Slider bringing light amounts of snowfall Monday…..Additional systems expected later in the week….

Outside of the areas of freezing fog like Lee Vining and Crowley Lake, our weather throughout Mono County has been Steller with highs well into the 40s at resort levels and low 20s at night. A stronger upper ridge will build into the region tonight into Friday. Valley inversions are likely to continue the next couple of days with high temps climbing into the mid 50s in Mammoth and June, with lows continuing in the 20s.  The Valleys will remain colder with Freezing fog around the areas lakes through Friday AM.

A change in the pattern will be under way this weekend. The upper ridge breaks down this Friday night and a system moves into the Pacific NW Friday night. This will increase the breeze Friday night and hopefully bring enough wind to hinder Freezing Fogs to develop along the highway 395 corridor Saturday AM.  The first system probably won’t bring significant cooling to the high country but breeze yes!

A stronger upper jet will dig down into CA Monday. The GFS has come into more of an agreement with the ECMWF in it being more of a NW slider, and so expect a dryer scenario in this case. Nevertheless…..Light amounts of snowfall seem likely at this point. Amounts 1 to 6 inches, something like that Monday. Modified polar makes a return to Mammoth early next week as well.

The following system for Thursday and Friday is more complex as it “may tap” moisture from a subtropical Jet, emanating from a closed low NW of Kauai. This mornings 12Z deterministic run of the GFS has confluent Jets on Thursday the 1st. Of course it is very early in the game of forecasting to actually believe such scenario at this moment of time. However, this would at the least, offer moderate amounts of snowfall. (6 to 18 inches). However, in checking the same 12z run of the GFS “Ensembles”, the system NW of Kauai has too much downstream ridge to allow enough energy and moisture to converge with the polar Jet along the west coast.  So…”At this time”, it appears that this may be, another system with marginal over water trajectory Thursday and Friday. Stay Tuned!…Will update in the next day or two!

The Dweebs hope all readers have the best Thanksgiving and as always, thanks for your interest and reading!  🙂

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)

 

 

 

The cold in the west will give way to milder pacific air next week…It continues to be unlikely that any meaningful precipitation will fall until months end….

9:50AM 11-18-2022

The New IRI graph is out and is indicated below. It continues the trend of ENSO going neutral during the Boreal Spring 2023. What’s encouraging is that the average in the graph shows -.5C by about March 2023.

That is the threshold of La Nina. More importantly,  AR’s in CA, AKA Atmospheric Rivers, are the most numerous when ENSO is between -.5C and +.5C.  So, we may be in for a wet Late Winter or Spring.

 

 

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9:00AM 11-18-2022

Upper wave is approaching Mono County and 700MB winds are expected to increase over the Crest from the East.  Mild pacific air is destined to invade the high country Sunday and although a weak wave moves in from the west Tuesday AM, it will only bring clouds and a wind shift.  Thanksgiving will be Steller!   Highs in the mid to upper 50s at resort levels, while Bishop basks in 65 to 70 degree daytime highs. Little or no change is expected the following Friday. If you live in the southland, expect high temps Thanksgiving day and the following Friday around 80 degrees!

Our ridge breaks down later in the weekend. There is a storm that will try to get in here later Sunday.  The models of course handle it differently. The main difference is if a blocking high develops near Greenland out over the Atlantic. The GFS builds this ridge and its effects would be to cause splitting of the Sunday/Monday system after the holiday. The European model does not and so the system is more progressive.  There is another storm out there the following Tuesday or Wednesday as we wrap up the month of November.   If you want to know why I am even bringing up an active pattern so far out, it is because of the likelihood of the MJO in the RMM as indicated below, in phase 7 which is wet for California, in November.

 

The Dweeber………………:-)

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Temperatures continue to be well below normal in the high country as a highly amped upper ridge along the coast, continues to pull down chilly air into the Great Basin. Although tomorrow Thursday will be briefly milder, another and last shot of cold drops into the Great Basin and brings more cooling into our area for Friday. Thereafter, our hemispheric pattern goes into transition. Beginning this weekend the coastal upper ridge both deamplifies and shifts east into the Great Basin, early next week. This will allow milder pacific air into Mono County with the result of warmer temps next week, especially toward Thanksgiving. Mammoth may even experience highs in the mid 50s by Thanksgiving or shortly thereafter. The high elevation valley temperatures will be well inverted and as the case was this morning, subject to periods of Freezing Fog and Pogonip’s.  Temps will be in the 40s on Thursday and then back down into the low 30s on Friday, then 40s again over the weekend

 

Longer Range:

Both EC and GFS models in the longer range, (WEEK 2) show amplification of the central pacific ridge toward the end of the month. Thus, we have the opportunity for the redevelopment of an active pattern by then, as storms may once again drop out of Gulf of Alaska. This will be the Dweebs focus during next week on how the pattern evolves.

 

Below is the GEFSv12 RMM 1 and 2 Phase Space. Looking at the MJO and/or other tropical modes of variability.  It looks like it goes into Phase 7.  Looking at the composites for November in Phase 7, it is wetter than normal for California. This tool can give support to week 2 model forecast at distance, and in this case, a stormy end of the month! 🙂

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)

 

 


After nearly 6 foot dump on upper mountain, snow pack on Mammoth Mountain one of best in years for the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday…. More coming!?

11/15/2022

This is another quick update:

This mornings coastal slider brought clouds and another shot of cold air to the Eastern Sierra. Pacific air will begin to modify our unseasonably cold airmass tomorrow Wednesday with highs backup into the low 40s by Thursday. Winds will be light by then.  Our airmass is likely to modify more further into the mid 40s+by the weekend.

Looking briefly at thanksgiving week, I indicated that this Wednesday I would have more details on that week. However, just as a quick update, although there are some “wet foot” forecasters out there that have been consistently suggesting that a wet week is indicated for Thanksgiving week, I find no evidence of that, other  than a weak small feature coming in Monday night that may bring a little light snowfall. So odds are against any significant storms before that following weekend and any active pattern may hold off until the first week of December. More tomorrow Wednesday…

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…….

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Quick update

The weather will remain colder than normal with temps 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Chilly inside slider to bring the possibility of a few more inches of snow Saturday night as chilly slider skirts the sierra….North to south. Main effect will be cooling and wind. Another possible slider will arrive Tuesday.  Highs in Mammoth in the 30s….and 20s on the mountain.  Lows mostly in the teens and low 20 next week.

In my next update, will chat about the longer range, the possibility of more significant snowfall the last week of November and the why or why not with graphics.
Hint….the EURO is dry the end of the month. It is out of phase with GFS showing more of a ridge. Additionally, the CFS is Dry and the MJO with the ECMWF ensembles is not encouraging.

The Dweebs are traveling this weekend update Wednesday.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…..🥸