Looking at the models this morning, it is evident that the earlier forecast guidance has been correct in setting up the strong Ridge-Trough pattern over the CONUS this week.  This pattern has legs and will persist for some time.  It appears to be, that with a moderate La Nina and the QBO in its negative phase, meridional flow will dominate the weather this winter and there is likely to be long periods of quite between active weather patterns.  The next opportunity of a change will be mid month December, as the forecast models do move the Big Eastern Trof out into the Atlantic. That should open the wavelength and allow at the least some weak energy for some cooling, wind and a slight chance of some very light snowfall. I say slight chance as even through the current Eastern Trof is forecasted to move out, the mean ridge position still remains over the far west.  So any short wave action will weaken from the west and is more likely to back door us from the northeast. This is usually a dry pattern with upslope snow or something of that sort.  The ridge then redevelops over the far west again.  The Dweebs are still hopeful that a more significant change will occur the end of the year as the pattern is forecasted to go into full transition. The Dweebs just hope we do not go from one drought pattern to the next!

As a note, this pattern is horrible for the fires in Southern CA. Although LA is not likely to experience those very strong winds as earlier this week in the near future, there will still be periods of increased off shore flow over the next 2 to 3 days as the cold temps over the Great Basin combine with a persistent surface high over the same area diurnally.  The off shore gradient does greatly relax next week. However, there is the potential for another off shore event late the following weekend into early the following week. That is the time frame that we may see our change to cooler weather. (17th-18th)

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………:-)