Mammoth Weather Outlook

A storm cleanup day

Tuesday October 26, 2010

Posted at 8:53 am by Howard

TUESDAY MORNING WAS WINDLESS HERE NEAR THE VILLAGE…..A BEAUTIFUL MORNING WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 31 DEGREES AND DEW POINT OF -5. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF STORM DEBRIS EVIDENT FROM THE HIGH WINDS OF SUNDAY…PINE NEEDLES….SOME BROKEN LIMBS…ETC.

NEW 12Z WRF TUESDAY HAS COLD SHORT WAVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST AT THE MOMENT WITH SOME COOLER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN CA. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL COME UP TODAY IN MAMMOTH. THE COOLER AIR WILL BE ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE WEDNESDAY AM WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WEDNESDAYS WEATHER WILL WARM UP AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL SLOW AS IT APPROACHES CALIFORNIA THURSDAY, DUE TO THE SLOW NATURE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM THAT CAME THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SUNDAY SYSTEM NOW WELL EAST AND SLOWING….ALLOWS A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE TO BUILD FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE ROCKIES CREATING A LOT OF SLOWING FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY STORM.

I LOOKED AT THE OPERATIONAL 00Z….CANADIAN, UK, EC,AND GFS. ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT IN “NOT” CUTTING-OFF THE UP COMING TROF. HOWEVER, THEY ALL SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN THURSDAY THEN RAPIDLY EJECT THE ENERGY THROUGH SOUTHERN CA FRIDAY/NIGHT. THUS THE TROF SPLITS AND DUMPS MOST OF THE PRECIP WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. THE KICKER TROF WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THAT ONE TO SEE IF IT CAN DO BETTER HERE LOCALLY.

LONGER RANGE:

AS MENTIONED EARLIER, HEIGHTS REALLY RISE OVER THE FAR WEST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO MID 590S BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS ACCORDING TO THE 00Z TUESDAY RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN…..THAT MEANS INDIAN SUMMER TO THE MAX! THE ECMWF HAS THE PATTERN PROGRESSIVE…..WELL SEE IF SHE HOLDS…:-)

PS: THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT JOG IN THE +SSTA POOL EASTWARD TOWARD THE DATELINE….WILL KEEP FINGERS AND TOES CROSSED THAT THIS WWP KEEPS MOVING EAST!

DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS………………………….:-)

Storm door remains open

Monday October 25, 2010

Posted at 9:15 am by Howard

STORM DO0R TO REMAIN OPEN FOR THE TIME BEING……WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES FOR THE FAR WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK….THE NEXT AND COLDER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

TO QUICKLY RECAP THE EVENTS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS THAT LEAD TO THIS PAST WEEKENDS WET EVENT….THE DWEEBS BELIEVE IT WAS THE VERY STRONG MJO THAT BEGAN DEVELOPING OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN BACK IN PHASE SPACE 3 OF THE *WHEELER/HEDON PHASE SPACE CHART, DURING THE EARLY PART OF OCTOBER THAT INITIALLY SPAWNED FLOODING THROUGHOUT PARTS OF INDONESIA. THE MJO PROGRESSED INTO THE MARITIME CONTINENT WHERE IT STRENGTHENED AND REACHED SOME 3 TO 4 DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND REMAINED VERY STRONG AS IT MOVED INTO THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC, THE BEGINNING OF THE 3RD WEEK OF OCT. THE DWEEBS FEEL THAT THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT TYPHOON MEGI WAS SPAWNED BY INFLUENCES OF THAT MJO THAT FELL APART RAPIDLY THIS PAST WEEK.

* http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html

MEGI’S ENERGY DESTRUCTIVELY PHASED WITH THE WESTERLIES…. ZONALING OUT THE JET ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND SLAMMING IT INTO NORTHERN CA AND THE PAC NORTHWEST, CARRYING AN EXCEPTIONAL AMOUNT OF BOTH ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWEST AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA.

INERTIA FROM ITS WAKE WILL KEEP A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK. IN THAT THERE IS MODEST AMPLIFICATION OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, MOST SHORT WAVES WILL RIDE ON AN UPPER JET MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SPLITTING SYSTEM THAT WILL BE COMING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. ITS PROGRESS WILL BE SLOWED A BIT DUE TO THE SLOW NATURE OF OUR CURRENT EXITING SYSTEM, SLOWING AS IT SPINS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION THIS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, THE MODELS ARE SPLITTING THE SUBJECT SYSTEM SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CA FRIDAY. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CUT OFF AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE TIMING IS CERTAINLY IN QUESTION. THE STORM IS COLDER THAN THE LAST AND HAS MUCH LESS ENERGY AND MOISTURE.

LONGER RANGE:

AFTER A POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEEKEND……(AT THIS TIME)THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOWS STRONG HEIGHT RISES FOR THE FAR WEST AND SOME VERY NICE WEATHER FOR A WHILE.

THE BIG QUESTION IN THE DWEEBS MIND IS HOW LONG WILL 500HT HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH OVER IN THE VINCENTY OF HUDSON BAY, CAN….AND THUS HOW LONG WILL THE DOWN STREAM PATTERN REMAIN UNBLOCKED?

THE DWEEEBS STILL DO NOT LIKE THE POSITION OF THE WARM WATER POOL STRETCHED BETWEEN 150E AND THE DATELINE. THAT INFERS A LONG WAVE RIDGE AROUND 165E TO THE DATELINE. THE TELE-CONNECTING WAVELENGTH MAY SUGGEST A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WEST AS SOON AS A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW DEVELOPS OR -NAO.

DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS……………….:-)