Today is a blustery day in Mammoth with light snow this morning and currently sunny skies. High temperatures today will be in the mid 30s and gusty west winds will make it feel even colder. Lows tonight are expected to be in the teens. There appears to be one more shot of cold air following this trough, between the upper ridge now crossing 140W and the Sierra Crest.  This short wave is dry, but will bring some high clouds, some breezes over the upper elevations and more importantly, a shot of cold air Monday for which Mammoth Mt will be able to make snow day and night. By mid-week,  the upper ridge now progressing toward the west coast will amplify, forcing the freezing level up to 10,000 feet by Wednesday night and over 11,000 by Friday. This west coast ridge is likely to become stationary for sometime. Possibly 2 weeks according to the Euro Model/(Mid Month). I suspect that the week 2 models or during the 2nd week of December, will have better visibility about a change in the pattern for the future.  For the Dweebs…..An important indicator that will give an even longer look down the road will be the RIMM Phase Space, showing where the locations of potential tropical forcing will be. The strength of the signal and speed will be important as well. The speed of the signal can give an indication of what it is.  IE, an MJO, Rossby Waves or Kelvin Waves. A “strong” MJO moving through the Indian Ocean in phase spaces 2 and 3 would  break down the +PNA and help bring retrogression to the pattern that is currently developing for the west coast and eastern US.   At the moment, the RMM chart this morning using the NCEP. (American Models) ,show more amplification within Phase 7 for week 2. This just intensifies the +PNA the following week, so this pattern setting up this week looks bullet proof for at least a week or two.

The good news is that Mammoth Mt received up to 6 feet of snow about a week ago and they are making snow nightly…….:-)  Skiing and boarding is reported to be very good!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)