12/13/22

So its cold outside…20s today…

Some moderation in temps can be expected tomorrow Wednesday…..At least 10 degrees of warming. Were in a dry pattern now, as the main teleconnecting feature, the upper blocking high is headed for north of Sibera by early mid week next week.  A cold upper low is moving into the Pacific NW and may bring some temporqry cooling mid week next week.  Signifacant cooling is expected for the NW along with snowfall for the Northern Rockies.  With a little luck we may get a few showers in a week but its a long shot. So over all, expect a dry 1 to 2 week period ahead.

Interseasonally, week 3 (December 27th through the 3rd of January shows some promise as the MJO moves into Phases 6 and 7. (West Central then Central Pacific) According to MJO composites, Thats potentially wet for Central and Northern CA. As a note this is not part of the global models. These models are experimential and used by the CPC.

Working on some graphics in the near future….

 

The Dweeber……………………..:-)

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Mammoth Mt reported at the snow plot at the main lodge some 3.96 inches of water. The vast majority of the storm was AR related as although temps were near freezing in town and in the low to mid twenties for the warm sector of the storm, a very moist airmass along (High Dew Points in relation to the temperature) with high winds made for dense wind packed snow, with much less accumulating in the cold sector after midnight. So the Platinum Powder Watch never went to forecast.

Saturday night, temperatures began to plummit in the modified Arctic Air. It appreared that there was a foot or less fell in the Arctic portion of the storm Sunday. BTW, winds were clocked to 145mph on Mammoth Mt with gusts to 100 MPH. Town of Mammoth had gusts to 60 MPH.

Mammoth Mt reported 29 inches at the Main Lodge to as much as 42 inches in the upper elevations. 2.5 to 3.5 feet storm total was reported. The forecast was for 3 to 5 feet from the NWS. The Dweebs had bumped it up to some 5 to 6 feet after an increase in the QPF Friday AMs forecast from CRFC. With that said, some areas like west of the crest; west of Mono Lake received close to 7.00 of water as reported by the Rivers Forecast Center from Sacramento….  As a side note, Bishop had an unoffical 1.75 inches of rain, as reported by KIBS in Bishop in their rain-gage. A caller from the June area to KIBS reported 48 at June. Offically on the June website, 31 inches reported. Tahoe area, Palisades reported 50 inches while Mt Rose reported 54 inches.  “That’s very unusual”

Moving forward:

It will be cold the next two days with a sensible warm up mid week in the upper elevations of the high county. The freezing level goes up from 3000 feet today Monday to 9500 by Wednesday afternoon.  Wednesday and Thursday will be a milder days at resort levels, while the valleys may be trapped in the cold air.  The high on Wednesday may hit 40 degrees in Mammoth compaired to the low 20 to mid 20s today. There is a weak system that may give us some light snow next Sunday or Monday a week away.

The overall hemispheric pattern is in transition. The consenses is that a forming closed blocking high latitude high will retrograde to well north of Siberia.  A down stream trof set up north of Hawaii and we ridge up. However, for some reason, he CFS does not agee and keeps a belt of lower latt westerly flow continuing into CA. Most forecasters are going with the GFS and ECMWF and teleconnections which says that we will be gradually head toward an extended drier than normal pattern in the the coming weeks. This is quite the change. Well See and of course the Dweebs will keep you all in the loop!  🙂

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)