GUSTY WINDS OVER THE CREST TODAY…CHILLY WEATHER WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND….FAIR WEATHER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY…THEN RETROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THE 2ND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
Thursday November 11, 2010
Posted at 9:38 am by Howard
It was a chilly morning here in the Eastern Sierra with lows in the mid teens. A building surface high over the Great Basin will keep a NNE flow going over the crest for a few days. Temps will moderate towards Climo by weekend. Mammoth will remain storm free through next Wednesday. High temps will range in the upper 30s today with lows in the teens…then rise into the 40s over the weekend.
It appears that by Friday night…another short wave will drop through the Rockies, rebuilding pressures at the surface and reinforcing the cold air over the great basin. With the mean position of the eastern pacific high at 140west, the storm track will remain well to our north and east.
For the second day now, longer range models were forecasting retrogression of the eastern pacific high back towards 160west. Both ECMWF and the GFS have retrogression in their futures. However, the ECMWF retrogrades the upper high all the way to near the date line, while the GFS has it more toward 160west.
The implications are very significant on which model is correct. If the GFS is correct a major snowstorm would be in our future toward the next weekend while if the EC is correct more of the cold air from that storm along with the upper jet would remain to our north. Obviously more time will be needed in determing the long range outlook. The Dweebs feel that by this weeks end, a better handel on the longer term can be expected. One supporting feature to retrogression is a strong spike in the MJO phase space in phase 7. So retrogression is likely. However, the big question is, how much. If there is too much, will just ridge up and stay dry.