Archive for November, 2010

Heat wave for two more days

POSITIVE PNA PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE TIME BEING….RIDGE OVER THE WEST TO TAKE PUNCH OUT OF SYSTEMS, SPLITTING THEM OR PUSHING THEM TO OUR NORTH.

CURRENT HEAT WAVE TO LAST ANOTHER 2 DAYS….TEMPS TO RETURN SEASONABLE BY SATURDAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND……A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE UPPER ELEVATIONS VERY POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

MUCH BETTER SNOW MAKING CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

LONGER RANGE:

GOOD NEWS……

WHEELER-HEDON DYNAMICAL MODEL MJO FORECASTS PHASE SPACE SHOWS BOTH UKME AND GFS ENSEMBLES INCURSION INTO PHASE 7 OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. EL NINO LIKE FOR AN INCREASE OF AAM.

THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA BECOMES NEGATIVE BY MID MONTH ACCORDING TO THE GFSE

THE DWEEBER….





Recap and the winter outlook

A RECAP OF THE SUMMER AND A FIRST LOOK AT THE FALL-WINTER OF 2011:

LA NINA CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EQUATORIAL EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC.

IT HAS BEEN A COLDER THAN NORMAL SUMMER FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF CALIFORNIA STRICTLY BECAUSE OF THE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE PERSISTENT TROFING OFF SHORE PUSHING THE AIR INLAND OVER THE COLDER WATER.

BASED UPON PAST MODERATE LA NINAS…..THE DWEEBS BELIEVE OUR UPCOMING WINTER WILL BE AN EXCEPTIONALLY COLD ONE FOR THE PAC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN WITH MAMMOTH ON THE BORDER OF THAT. OVERALL THE ODDS FAVOR NORMAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (80% TO 120%) OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAMMOTH AREA AND A MUCH MUCH DRIER THEN NORMAL WINTER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

LA NINA WINTERS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR PRODUCING EARLY SEASON TEASER SHOWERY TYPE STORMS THAT DROP OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH PERIODS OF WARMER THEN NORMAL TEMPS WITHIN THE SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER TIME FRAME. THEN SOME REALLY COLD OUTBREAKS IN LATE NOVEMBER, DECEMBER AND JANUARY. LA NINA WINTER’S OFTEN TIMES END EARLIER…..WITH AN EARLIER SPRING. THEN UNLIKE EL NINO WINTERS……SUMMER WEATHER OFTEN TIMES ARRIVES SOONER AS WELL BECOMING VERY HOT IN CALIFORNIA DURING JULY AND AUGUST WITH A LOT OF THUNDER IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

THE MJO SHOULD BE A MAJOR PLAYER LATER IN THE YEAR AND INTO THE NEXT INITIATING AMPLIFICATION THEN POSSIBLE UNDER UNDERCUTTING OF THE WESTERLIES THIS WINTER.
NH BLOCKING WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PATTERNS WITH ATTENTION TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY LOW AND STRONG BLOCKING OVER AK. LETS HOPE THAT THE HUDSON BAY FEATURE IS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE THIS WINTER! WE NEED A NEGATIVE PHASE QBO) IE. HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER HUDSON BAY FOR THIS REASON.

AGAIN….A MODERATE/STRONG LA NINA’S FALL IS USUALLY ACCOMPANIED BY AN EARLY SNOW STORM (SINGULARITY TYPE), THAT CAN OCCUR ANYTIME FROM MID SEPTEMBER THROUGH OCTOBER HERE IN MAMMOTH, FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY COLD UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPING IN NOVEMBER. SO TYPICALLY, WINTERS TEND TO BE “LATE HERE IN CENTRAL CA”, DURING LA NINA FALLS AND WINTERS.

THE WINTER OF 1973/74 WAS A STRONG LA NINA THAT WAS AN EXCEPTION….WHICH STARTED IN THE FALL AND CONTINUED THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE SPRING.

ADDITIONALLY, THIS “MAY BE” THE WINTER OF THE PINEAPPLE CONNECTION FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA, AS THAT WEATHER TYPE IS OFTEN INITIATED BY (MJO). THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED MORE WITH LA NINA WINTERS RATHER THEN EL NINO. DURING LA NINA WINTERS, WE OFTEN TIMES GET OUR SNOWFALL, MORE DURING SHORT PERIOD HIGH INTENSITY EVENTS RATHER THAN A LONGER PROTRACTED SERIES OF STORMS THAT COME ONE AFTER ANOTHER THROUGH OUT THE WINTER. IN OTHER WORDS THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE THAT THERE MAY BE BIG LONG BREAKS BETWEEN STORMY PATTERNS FOR THE UP COMING WINTER.

AS ANOTHER NOTE, THE STRONGER THE LA NINA, THE GREATER THE CHANCE THAT SOUTHERN CA WILL HAVE A DRIER THEN NORMAL WINTER. THIS LA NINA IS ALREADY IN A MODERATE STAGE. I EXPECT SOME PRETTY STRONG SANTA ANNA WINDS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE FALL! FOR SOUTH LAND FOLKS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS….MAKE SURE YOUR FIRE INSURANCE IS CURRENT!

MORE LATER

THE DWEEBER