Archive for year 2010

Storm door remains open

STORM DO0R TO REMAIN OPEN FOR THE TIME BEING……WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES FOR THE FAR WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK….THE NEXT AND COLDER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

TO QUICKLY RECAP THE EVENTS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS THAT LEAD TO THIS PAST WEEKENDS WET EVENT….THE DWEEBS BELIEVE IT WAS THE VERY STRONG MJO THAT BEGAN DEVELOPING OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN BACK IN PHASE SPACE 3 OF THE *WHEELER/HEDON PHASE SPACE CHART, DURING THE EARLY PART OF OCTOBER THAT INITIALLY SPAWNED FLOODING THROUGHOUT PARTS OF INDONESIA. THE MJO PROGRESSED INTO THE MARITIME CONTINENT WHERE IT STRENGTHENED AND REACHED SOME 3 TO 4 DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND REMAINED VERY STRONG AS IT MOVED INTO THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC, THE BEGINNING OF THE 3RD WEEK OF OCT. THE DWEEBS FEEL THAT THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT TYPHOON MEGI WAS SPAWNED BY INFLUENCES OF THAT MJO THAT FELL APART RAPIDLY THIS PAST WEEK.

* http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html

MEGI’S ENERGY DESTRUCTIVELY PHASED WITH THE WESTERLIES…. ZONALING OUT THE JET ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND SLAMMING IT INTO NORTHERN CA AND THE PAC NORTHWEST, CARRYING AN EXCEPTIONAL AMOUNT OF BOTH ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWEST AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA.

INERTIA FROM ITS WAKE WILL KEEP A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK. IN THAT THERE IS MODEST AMPLIFICATION OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, MOST SHORT WAVES WILL RIDE ON AN UPPER JET MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SPLITTING SYSTEM THAT WILL BE COMING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. ITS PROGRESS WILL BE SLOWED A BIT DUE TO THE SLOW NATURE OF OUR CURRENT EXITING SYSTEM, SLOWING AS IT SPINS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION THIS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, THE MODELS ARE SPLITTING THE SUBJECT SYSTEM SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CA FRIDAY. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CUT OFF AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE TIMING IS CERTAINLY IN QUESTION. THE STORM IS COLDER THAN THE LAST AND HAS MUCH LESS ENERGY AND MOISTURE.

LONGER RANGE:

AFTER A POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEEKEND……(AT THIS TIME)THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOWS STRONG HEIGHT RISES FOR THE FAR WEST AND SOME VERY NICE WEATHER FOR A WHILE.

THE BIG QUESTION IN THE DWEEBS MIND IS HOW LONG WILL 500HT HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH OVER IN THE VINCENTY OF HUDSON BAY, CAN….AND THUS HOW LONG WILL THE DOWN STREAM PATTERN REMAIN UNBLOCKED?

THE DWEEEBS STILL DO NOT LIKE THE POSITION OF THE WARM WATER POOL STRETCHED BETWEEN 150E AND THE DATELINE. THAT INFERS A LONG WAVE RIDGE AROUND 165E TO THE DATELINE. THE TELE-CONNECTING WAVELENGTH MAY SUGGEST A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE FAR WEST AS SOON AS A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW DEVELOPS OR -NAO.

DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS……………….:-)

Storm Report – Oct. 25

UPDATED STORM AND MONTHLY STATS….

STORM TOTAL AT THE VILLAGE AT MAMMOTH…

STORM TOTAL 2.65 INCHES
LAST 24 HOURS 2.11
SINCE MIDNIGHT .11
TOTAL SINCE OCT 1ST 4.07

TEMPERATURE AT 7:00AM 31 DEGREES…..WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE

Wet Sunday

24 HR RAINFALL AT THE VILLAGE AT MAMMOTH .61 AND .46 SINCE MIDNIGHT
THE OVERNIGHT LOW WAS 39F DEGREES.
WINDS LOCALLY HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 40 MPH RANGE SO FAR.

THE WET TROPICAL FETCH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SIERRA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH RAIN FALLS EXPECTED IN THE 1 TO 2 INCHES RANGE HERE LOCALLY.

HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR GUSTS TO 80 MPH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES AND 145MPH OVER THE CREST LATER TODAY.

SNOW LEVELS TODAY SHOULD RISE ABOVE 10,000 FEET THEN LOWER TONIGHT TO 8000 FEET.
THERE IS THE CHANCE OF UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW AT THE MAIN LODGE BY MONDAY AM AND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW AT CANYON LODGE BY AM.

ALTHOUGH THE LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HANDLING DIFFERENTLY….THERE IS ANOTHER STORM HEADED INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SIERRA LATE THURSDAY PM AND ANOTHER OVER HALLOWEEN WEEKEND.

MORE UPDATES LATER…..

THE DWEEBER………………….:-)